In this poll, Gallup registered voters, Clinton got a 16 point bounce in ‘92 and 5 point bounce in ‘96. Carter got a smaller bounce in ‘76, when he won, than he did in 1980 when he lost.
My statement is true. Both Carter and Clinton went on to win elections after getting a bounce lower than 10 points. IOW, convention bounces give us polling wonks something to talk about, but they mean very little.
I’ll say it again, we will not know the true state of this race until a week or so after the Pubbie convention.
These charts says differently for the bounces.
| REPUBLICAN CONVENTION BOUNCES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Convention Date | Gallup Poll Before (date) | Gallup Poll After (date) | Bounce |
| 1960 | Jul. 25 - 28 | 33% (Jul. 16 - 21) | 45% (Jul. 30 - Aug. 4) | + 12 |
| 1964 | Jul. 13 - 16 | 19% (Jun. 25 - 30) | 26% (Jul. 23 - 28) | + 7 |
| 1968 | Aug. 5 - 8 | 37% (Jul. 18 - 23) | 43% (Sep. 1 - 6) | + 6 |
| 1972 | Aug. 21 - 23 | 55% (Aug. 4 - 7) | 66% (Aug. 25 - 28) | + 11 |
| 1976 | Aug. 16 - 19 | 27% (Aug. 6 - 9) | 36% (Aug. 27 - 30) | + 9 |
| 1980 | Jul. 14 - 17 | 40% (Jul. 11 - 14) | 46% (Jul. 30 - 31) | + 6 |
| 1984 | Aug. 20 - 23 | 48% (Aug. 10 - 13) | 57% (Sep. 6 - 9) | + 9 |
| 1988 | Aug. 15 - 18 | 42% (Aug. 5 - 7) | 48% (Aug. 19 - 21) | + 6 |
| 1992 | Aug. 17 - 20 | 32% (Aug. 13 - 14) | 38% (Aug. 21 - 23) | + 6 |
| 1996 | Aug. 12 - 15 | 36% (Aug. 11) | 41% (Aug. 16 - 18) | + 5 |
| 2000 | Jul. 31 - Aug. 3 | 46% (Jul. 25 - 26) | 50% (Aug. 4 - 5) | + 4 |
| 2004 | Aug. 30 - Sep. 2 | 45% (Aug. 23 - 25) | 47% (Sep. 3 - 5) | + 2 |
| Total Republican Bounces: 11 out of 12 | ||||
| DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION BOUNCES | ||||
| Year | Convention Date | Gallup Poll Before (date) | Gallup Poll After (date) | Bounce |
| 1960 | Jul. 11-15 | 46% (Jun. 30 - Jul. 5) | 51% (Jul. 16 - 21) | + 5 |
| 1964 | Aug. 24 - 27 | 63% (Aug. 6 - 11) | 62% (Sep. unspecified) | - 1 |
| 1968 | Aug. 26 - 29 | 26% (Aug. 7 - 12) | 30% (Sep. 1 - 6) | + 4 |
| 1972 | Jul. 10 - 13 | 32% (Jun. 16 - 19) | 32% (Jul. 14 - 17) | 0 |
| 1976 | Jul. 12 - 15 | 50% (Jun. 25 - 28) | 63% (Jul. 17 - 20) | + 13 |
| 1980 | Aug. 11-14 | 28% (Aug. 1 - 4) | 40% (Aug. 15 - 18) | + 12 |
| 1984 | Jul. 16 - 19 | 35% (Jul. 13 - 16) | 38% (Jul. 27 - 30) | +3 |
| 1988 | Jul. 18 - 21 | 47% (Jul. 8 - 10) | 54% (Jul. 22 - 24) | + 7 |
| 1992 | Jul. 13-16 | 31% (Jul. 9-10) | 59% (Jul. 17) | +28* |
| 1996 | Aug. 26 - 29 | 46% (Aug. 23 - 25) | 54% (Sep. 2 - 4) | + 8 |
| 2000 | Aug. 14 - 17 | 40% (Aug. 11 - 12) | 48% (Aug. 18 - 19) | + 8 |
| 2004 | Jul. 26 - 29 | 48% (Jul. 19 - 21) | 48% (Jul. 30 - Aug. 1) | 0 |
| Total Democratic Bounces: 9 out of 12 | ||||
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that Ross Perot dropped out of the '92 race on on July 16, 1992. This impacted the polls following the Democratic National Convention which, ended on the same day, much more so than the GOP post-convention polls in August.
Source: Gallup polls from Roper Center's iPoll database.