Posted on 08/30/2008 10:27:50 AM PDT by flyfree
dissapointing....
That is a great point that is being overlooked by many.
By my calculations, Obama lead McCain roughly 56-38 the day after Hillary spoke. Tough to know the exact number because you never get the true starting point with a rolling poll.
He polled a double digit lead the day after the Rapist in Chief spoke as well. The results from yesterday would have shown him with a very slight lead. In other words, his numbers plummeted the day after his big speech.
Great news for us, although we need to realize we are still behind right now. We can definitely catch up, but we have a lot of work to do if we want to win in November. Lets not get complacent.
everyone can argue over methodology and impact, but the bottom line is this -
BO +8 w reg voters
BO +4 w likely voters
this ain’t good news for the RATS
they know they are in trouble. look where BO & JO are today - in PA and OH because their lead in those states is slim or nonexistent
Pretty sure Clinon had a 17 point bounce in 1992.
I wonder too where the polls are taken. If it’s national, it’s not as important apas a battleground poll. I’m more concerned about ohio, PA , minnesota, NH, Missouri than I am about New York Or California.
The rest of your post was on the money, but this is wrong.
Gallup DOES poll cell phones. They use a random number dialer, and they do indeed reach cell phone users.
“...during the primaries there was always a discrepancy of about 4 pts in Obama’s favor from the actual results...”
Not in Rasmussen. I compared Ras’ results to the actual election outcomes and found only one state, California, where Obama underperformed his polling, and then only by one point. Pollster.com did a similar study using polling averages and found that Obama outperformed his polling 2/3 more often than Hillary did.
All the real indications (as opposed to spin and misdirection) are that McCain will need actual numbers higher than Obama’s to win. There is no vote fairy coming to save him. Maybe Palin will change the calculus; we will know in a week or so.
Where were the polls before Perot quit. I thought Perot had a lead, then quit and Clinton surged ahead and never lost his lead. He ended up winning by 5 I believe.
Thanx, folks, I didn’t know cellphones were in the Gallup methods now. How . . . do they manage to get regional balance with cellphones?
They are going to show big leads for him, and the MSM is going to be trumpeting the race as being over. While completely predictable, it is not accurate.
Obama is slightly ahead right now, but McCain is still well positioned. A well run convention, and strong campaign from here on out can definitely propel him to the White House.
In this poll, Gallup registered voters, Clinton got a 16 point bounce in ‘92 and 5 point bounce in ‘96. Carter got a smaller bounce in ‘76, when he won, than he did in 1980 when he lost.
My statement is true. Both Carter and Clinton went on to win elections after getting a bounce lower than 10 points. IOW, convention bounces give us polling wonks something to talk about, but they mean very little.
I’ll say it again, we will not know the true state of this race until a week or so after the Pubbie convention.
Yeah, but even though it’s registered voters, it’s still a damn big eight points.
So, either his opponents got virtually every single undecided voter out there, or else some people were telling pollsters they were undecided when they actually had made up their minds to vote for Obama's opponent.
Either way, it is likely to work for us and not against us on election day.
>>
All the real indications (as opposed to spin and misdirection) are that McCain will need actual numbers higher than Obama’s to win. There is no vote fairy coming to save him. Maybe Palin will change the calculus; we will know in a week or so.
>>
There is a factor that could be more powerful this election than others. A Popular Vote/Electoral Vote digression is perhaps more likely this year than in others because of the Obama can “run up the score” in cities of states he’ll already win like Illinois and California.
***It’s terrible news for him that the poll flatlined after his own Greek god speech.***
When I saw the Messiah give his sermon in Denver speech, I thought it was entertaining. Two days later, I can’t remember anything he said.
Because a registered voter poll is the cheap and dirty way!
Likely voter polls cost far more in time and money.
The other three are CO (McCain leads in latest, but it's been very close); NV (Obama still has a 5 point lead there) and either NM or NH (both Obama in the latest).
McCain can win with NV and CO, or lose NV and win with NM and NH. But he can't lose all three and win, because he isn't going to take MI or NJ, as much as Freepers keep posting that it's possible
What I remember falls into two categories:
* increased taxes and spending
* lies about Republicans
If he is still up by eight or more tomorrow, it means Obama had another great polling day, which would obviously not be good for us at all.
Stay tuned.
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