Posted on 08/30/2008 10:27:50 AM PDT by flyfree
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama maintains an eight percentage point lead over John McCain when registered voters nationwide are asked whom they would vote for in the presidential election if it were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking figures.
...
The current results are based on Aug. 27-29 interviewing, which includes two nights of polling during the convention and one post-convention night on Friday. The Friday interviewing was conducted in an unusual political environment -- the first conducted fully after Obama's well-regarded acceptance speech and McCain's surprise announcement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Each event in isolation has usually been associated with increased candidate support for the relevant party. On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
They are going to scrap the whole convention and feel good speeches and go help the people get water and food in New Orleans.
What seems like a punishment after (I) wanted really bad weather in Denver and am getting it in St. Paul (which is not an outside arena by the way......Alan Colmes!) will turn in to a blessing as the republicans show that helping our fellow Americans is more important than lavish dinners.
Having Bush and Cheney address the event at their normal times while the storm hits. Then take a day off and then continue with the main event.
This is good. It gives the McCain-Palin ticket time to get Palin more ready and all. They can react to the disaster having waited one day to see how it plays out. Then, the main theme of Palins speach should be the importance of moving our refinerys more on shore and express the importance of domestic energy production.
If you look at all the polls all year, Obama is up about 3 points all through this whole thing. Not much has changed. McCain and Palin have to have a good convention and not mess up the debates. If may be every bit as close as the last two elections in the end. Palin is going to gain McCain a few votes, and lose him maybe a very few. Biden won’t affect things.
God have mercy.
There's a word for people who complain about biased polls: LOSERS
In 2004, MoveOn took out full page ads in the New York Times denouncing Gallup as biased... for George Bush. They were wrong then and you're wrong now.
Obama has a typical convention bounce. Gallup shows that it existed for a couple of days, but Palin's eating into it severely. It'll likely disappear and perhaps even reverse after the RNC next week. Denying that it exists is just delusional.
I think I heard Rush say that if Obama didn’t get at least a 12 point obunce, he was screwed. I think by Monday this lead will be greatly neutralized!
An FYI to all. Here is a link to discussion of Kerry’s bounce post convention in 2004.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34914-2004Aug2.html
He led by 6%, and made up 8% from a previous 2% Bush lead.
That was not a Gallup poll, but the methodology was consistent, suggesting an 8% bump is typical for modern times.
Unfortunately for the RNC, the media and will show Obama picking up sandbags and his hands dirty while McCain will be handing out Gatorade and stuff because of his age and injuries.
That's just the way it is.
Yeah. Maybe I misspoke. Of course, that still doesn’t explain why the polls were all over the place during the primaries. Most weren’t even close. Whatever.
Said only two times in history did they hit at anything higher than a 3.
“Kerry up, then lost.”
From Gallup Aug. 20, 2008:
“To the extent history is a guide, Barack Obama and John McCain can both expect to see some increase in voter support after their nominating conventions, an effect observed after nearly all of the 22 national conventions since 1964. The median increase has been 5 percentage points.
This ‘convention bounce’ is an important part of the presidential campaign narrative, and is one of the more highly anticipated events for poll watchers. Gallup has data to provide a reasonable estimate of each presidential candidate’s convention bounce dating back to 1964. All but two candidates — George McGovern in 1972 and John Kerry in 2004 — saw their support among registered voters increase after their parties’ conventions.”
Kerry’s bounce was -1 in this poll in 2004. Bush’s was +2.
storm will weaken significantly as soon as it hits land. Media likes to hype this stuff. In all likelihood, the worst of everything should be done by Tuesday dinner time, which essentially salvages three days of the Convention as far as media coverage goes.
As I recall, Katrina hit at Cat 3. They always weaken as the eye approaches shore because half of the storm at that point is over storm-starving land, not storm-feeding water.
Good point. But some of those crossing the border are McCain supporters.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday is the first to include reaction to both Barack Obamas acceptance speech and John McCains selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, its Obama 49% and McCain 45%.
Obama is DEAD in the Water!! It will begin to roll down hill from here! Obama and Biden are out today trying to apologize about the comment made yesterday about her being from a small town.
I predict every small town in the USA should give Obama the New Jersey Salute and tell him and biden where to go.
Where is the bounce!! The Dead Cat Bounce is Gone!!!
With likely voters, Obama is probaby up 3%
Lets see the polls next Friday. If Sara & McCain are within the MOE, then the debates will mean a lot.
both Bush and Cheney are scheduled for Monday night - and they can speak via satellite rather than in person as circumstances warrant.
we can also change the line-up and have all 4 GOP Gulf Coast governors use the opportunity, via saellite, to showcase effective management under competent GOP leaders.
Many options.
Eight points is the best the Obamessiah could do coming off of the convention? Even Bush 41 got a 9 point bounce when all he did was announce Dan Quayle as his running mate...
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