“Kerry up, then lost.”
From Gallup Aug. 20, 2008:
“To the extent history is a guide, Barack Obama and John McCain can both expect to see some increase in voter support after their nominating conventions, an effect observed after nearly all of the 22 national conventions since 1964. The median increase has been 5 percentage points.
This ‘convention bounce’ is an important part of the presidential campaign narrative, and is one of the more highly anticipated events for poll watchers. Gallup has data to provide a reasonable estimate of each presidential candidate’s convention bounce dating back to 1964. All but two candidates — George McGovern in 1972 and John Kerry in 2004 — saw their support among registered voters increase after their parties’ conventions.”
Kerry’s bounce was -1 in this poll in 2004. Bush’s was +2.
It is important to note four things: 1st, a Democrat needs to have a lead of 10 percent or more in the Gallup poll to have any chance of winning. Barry is only ahead by 8%; 2nd, this is a poll if registered voters, not likely voters; and 3rd, if you look at the internals of this poll Barry’s lead is produced by leads in the West and the East, area’s where he is already electorally leading; 4th, the internals show that his leads in those regions has stayed roughly the same, they simply reweighed the numbers to give him a bounce.