Intrade Prediction Markets Move on Palin Pick

Intrade prediction market ^

[drangundsturm]

Run the McCain contract ADVANCED GRAPH with chart type Candlestick which shows high-low-close information, on time period "Last Month" so you can see the fine recent detail. Sorry but the link won't choose those options for you, run the link first then make those selections and run it again:

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=376101&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

[drangundsturm]

The largest prediction market, Intrade, contract on John McCain showed a tiny 1 point drop the morning after Obama's hugely lauded speech. But after the Palin pick on Friday, things turned around sharply with the McCain contract rising from 37.5 all the way up to 42 before being beaten back down by some unusual selling activity.

The same pattern is occuring today with the contract rising on heavy volume up as high as 42 then getting beaten back down. I suspect democratic operatives are selling the contract to keep it under water. But this just means more savvy investors can score profits. (I am not suggesting that people participate in this.)

[quesney]

but, but, but...where’s Obama’s post-convention bounce?! (snicker)

[SeekAndFind]

Folks, natiowide surveys don't help us gauge who is winning.

So, even if Rasmussen or Zogby is showing a McCain rally, that does him little good.

Remember the year 2000 ? Al Gore won by over a million votes. Did that do him any good ?

It is the ELECTORAL COLLEGE that determines the winner.

Keep a close eye on who will win the magic 270. Here's the relevant map and it does not look too good for McCain, national polls notwithstanding :

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[Pharmer]

Wait till 2 weeks after the RNC convention to get concerned. The DBM is still reporting polling on registered voters and not likely voter (see today's Gallup poll). RCP is an average of good and bad polling outfits. With convention bounces and Obama not scoring over 50% after his convention indicates support is still soft.

BTW national polls due to the fact of larger sampling are much more accurate than state polls. I have seen polls in PA of less than 300 respondents, tell me thats accurate unless it is a poll for who lies in Grants Tomb.