Gallup Daily: Obama Moves Ahead, 48% to 42%

Gallup ^ | 8/28/2008 | Frank Newport

[comebacknewt]

The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention "bounce" that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades.

There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening's high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night's speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night's speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night's lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.

[nhoward14]

Considering how vigorously Barack Obama fought against the surge on Iraq, it is patently hypocritical for his campaign to execute its own surge in the polls.

I call on Barack Obama to call off this surge immediately, which will do nothing but ensure an escalation of hostilities between factions in the United States.

[Hattie]

McCain will come out with his veep pick tomorrow.

You think the media will be there? Or will they still be lapping with the messiah?

[LowTaxesEqualProsperity]

This is a normal bump.

It will go away next week when we have our convention.

[KavMan]

Darn! Looks like I’m not visiting DU today lol.

[El Cid]

Re:8
...the press has been talking about him nonstop for over a week now....

You are right. We not only have the normal Convention bounce, but now we also have the Non-stop parroting by the press on how this is somehow a momentous, and historic occasion. I.e., the amount of skin melanin trumps content of character, and we should celebrate this event...
No thank you.

[MattinNJ]

Doesn't matter. McCain must carry Colorado (9 EV's) and Nevada (5 EV's) (assuming he wins Fl, OH, and Va-if he doesn't carry all three it's over). If he loses CO or NV he'll have to replace it with comparable EVs from somewhere else like WI (10 EVs-big reason to go with Pawlenty).

Having said that, I think he's going to roll the Messiah like a circus clown. I would pick the eventual GOP successor, Sarah Palin, to get some experience under her belt for 2012 or 2016 (if his health doesn't hold). someone is going to have to lay the smack down on Hillary and having a more experienced female candidate next time around would make victory a lot easier. I think Palin would make drilling the central issue and shewould gather in a lot of soccer moms and blue collar males.

[Melinda]

Gallup? I just put a grain of salt on my lunch.

[snarkytart]

Yea, I think the poster meant “one” as in a double digit bounce.
Get it?

[charles m]

Exactly, it’s a three day averaged tracking poll. Or it could just be the temporary amnesia of disgruntled Clinton supporters backing Obama. But Mt. Olympia should strike him back to earth.

[jveritas]

Do not be concerned. Look at the map and you would realize that Obama is not going win this elections. Reality on the ground is against him, it is a simple as that. Yes we need to work hard to defeat him but defeat him we will.

[techcor]

Yeah, now they can stop believing the military industrial corporate biased polls that are totally controlled by the repugs are lying to the stupid sheeple and instead believe that the great Obamessiah has converted the sheeple to intelligent people like themselves.

[WhistlingPastTheGraveyard]

Either way, I think the inner-cities are going to be major hot spots in the days after 11/4.

[21stCenturyFreeThinker]

Barry’s bounce will be short-lived since McCain will come out with his veep pick tomorrow.

McCain is making his announcement tomorrow because it will be dramatic and transformative. I don't see any of the usual suspects that are popular here being transformative.

Instead of transformation he needs to rally the base.

His campaign keeps talking a lot about Lieberman. Maybe it's just a diversion but Lieberman would definitely be transformative. For better or worse is the question.

[snarkytart]

“This is a normal bump.

It will go away next week when we have our convention.”

I know. Why are people so damn paranoid, and freakin’ out?
sheesh.
This place gets scared over every little thing.

[jveritas]

Exactly. They may have polled more people in heavy democrat areas.

[Repeal 16-17]

Registered Voters. Today’s Rasmussen poll of Likely Voters has them tied.

Isn't it interesting that the Gallup poll is getting tons of coverage, but the Rasmussen poll gets none. This includes FNC's coverage.

[charles m]

while he's a dud speaking without prepared notes, Obama is a powerful orator when it comes to prepared speeches.

I just don't get this. He's boring, monotonous and slow. He looks angry with that scowl on his face when he speaks loudly. Don't believe me? Watch the Germany speech again.

I think it's mostly hype that people think he is a good orator. He is a heavily prop/anecdote-dependent speaker and the longer he campaigns, the less effective and more trite these anecdotes are becoming (hence his weakening appeal).

Bill Clinton is the real oratory master.

[HerrBlucher]

I know. Why are people so damn paranoid, and freakin’ out? sheesh.

Love of panic and doom? A belief that cynicism is intelligent, discerning, and perceptive?

[Grunthor]

Got it.

[latina4dubya]

I've been worried Obama might get a double digit bump out of the convention. Gallup shows him on pace for one.

big deal... this happens every time... McCain will get one too... when i was a Democrat i hated that the RNC came after the DNC... the RNC bounce always erased the DNC bounce...