Gallup Daily: Obama Moves Ahead, 48% to 42%

Gallup ^ | 8/28/2008 | Frank Newport

[comebacknewt]

The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention "bounce" that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades.

There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening's high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night's speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night's speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night's lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.

[comebacknewt]

I'm definitely not panicking. I was expecting a pretty nice bounce for Obambi during the convention. I was just hoping I was wrong and that it would be miniscule.

Sure would be nice to see McCain up by 5+ after the GOP convention (fingers crossed).

[Sans-Culotte]

If Barry gets a 10 point bounce out of the convention/speech, expect it to get to around 17 when McCain picks Lieberman.

[jwalsh07]

Obama would have had to get 56% of the vote last night to account for that bounce. I’m calling BS.

[impeachedrapist]

They were tied going in, how is this bounce only “one?”

I believe "one" was referring to a double-digit bump; the poster feels Obamessiah may be on pace for a double-digit bounce out of the convention.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

And W erased that bounce and pulled ahead after the GOP convention. Barry’s bounce will be short-lived since McCain will come out with his veep pick tomorrow.

[comebacknewt]

If it is, what kind of wackadoo math are you using?

Not wackadoo math on my part, wackadoo reading on yours. I said Obama is on pace for a double digit bounce.

What's so hard to understand about that?

[Perdogg]

He’s not picking lieberman.

[RoseofTexas]

I want to know how the weather is down there? Any chances of raining tonight??

[WhistlingPastTheGraveyard]

Registered Voters. Today’s Rasmussen poll of Likely Voters has them tied.

[Bernard]

This is a chance for John McCain to choose wisely and use a very simple, common man setting for his acceptance speech, sort of a "This is the cup of a carpenter" moment.

I wonder if the podium A. Lincoln used for the Gettysburg address would be available. Does that still exist somewhere?

[Always Right]

I don’t think there will be much more of a bounce. As good as commentators say Obama is, his speeches really aren’t that good. This bounce is mostly from the Bill Clinton speech, which so far as been their only effective speech.

[moose2004]

Remember, Obambi was up 8 after his Berlin speech and that disappeared very quickly afterwards.

[Dave346]

The article misstates the lag time of the poll. It only partially reflects the first 2 nights and doesn’t reflect the 3rd night at all. The convention won’t be fully accounted for until the Monday polls are out. So Obama may be on pace for a bigger bounce — but Rasmussen still has the race even.

[forYourChildrenVote4Bush]

see daily tracking

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

[paul544]

No. Gallup lays it out pretty clearly that last night's speeches are not reflected in these results.

[Defiant]

I don't believe the numbers. The normal push-polling that Gallup performs was suspended and they did real-sounding numbers using likely voters that showed the race in a tie. I think they saw the trend and wanted to be able to give Obama a bounce. If he doesn't get a large bounce from this convention, with its fawning press coverage, he will lose by huge margins.

So, if they are only giving him six points here, they had to work hard to get those numbers and probably did the whole thing in NY and LA during working hours.

After Obama's speech, they will do their damnedest to get it to double digits. That will be as phony as these numbers. The truth is, Obama probably picked up a few of the Hillary voters who were pissed off, and a very few independents who watched and got caught up in the moment. The Hillarities will probably stay with Obama. The independents will probably go back to McCain, especially if McCain continues to make fun of Obama in a way that exposes Obama's weaknesses. Once it becomes clear that McCain's lead is holding, Obama will evaporate. If McCain stumbles somewhere along the way, it may be close, but it looks like he will be able to hold Ohio and the other key states, and may pick up a few that Bush didn't carry, no matter what.

[Miss Didi]

Barry’s bounce will be short-lived since McCain will come out with his veep pick tomorrow.

What if the Veep pick is Joe L. and makes us cry?

P.S. Mitt is still at 65 on Intrade. ;)

[AnotherUnixGeek]

Obama is rolling the dice tonight with his Greek temple speech. If the temple becomes a joke, he might not get much bounce at all.

I wouldn't count on this - while he's a dud speaking without prepared notes, Obama is a powerful orator when it comes to prepared speeches. And his campaign and the convention planners are getting Hollywood's best - set designers, lighting, cameras, direction. Hollywood is not going to make it's darling Obama look like a joke. I'd expect a well-received speech, light on substance and heavy on grandiose visions and criticism of John McCain. The media will respond with multiple leg tingles.

It'll be up to McCain to squash the resulting bounce with an exciting VP pick on Friday (by exciting I mean someone like Palin or Cantor) and a sharply focused convention next week.

[Grunthor]

I’d go with Rasmussen. I still have a feeling that McCain is going to pull this thing out by 3-5% in November and that as a result many inner cities will burn for weeks.

[steve86]

I saw only a few seconds of the speeches but Bill and Hillary must have had a quarter inch of makeup on each. If Obama had that much it would pad out his cheeks like McCain.