Georgia-Russia War: Will it encourage Eastern Europe to develop Independent Nuclear Deterrence?

quesney

[quesney]

By now it should be painfully obvious to all of Eastern Europe -- from the Ukraine and Romania to Poland and the Baltic States -- that they can not count on Western Europe or the U.S. for the defense of their sovereignty.

They don't want to go back to being under Russian dictatorship and dysfunctional economics. And they can't count on Western Europe, the U.S. or NATO to do much of anything. Western Europe is dependent on Russia for energy and it is pacifist. The U.S. is overstretched militarily and financially and has lost a lot of moral authority. Its president has little or no political capital. No one wants oil prices to spike. And NATO has been exposed in Afghanistan as an empty shell except for U.S. soldiers. Most European NATO troops avoid much of the fighting and are relegated to peacekeeper functions by their home countries.

So I think the next step for Eastern Europe may be to seriously consider developing an independent nuclear deterrence, if they haven't embarked on secret nuclear weapons programs already.

Nothing else in this world provides a greater guarantee of sovereignty than having nuclear weapons as a deterrent. Most of these countries have no hope of marshaling the resources of a conventional defense against Russia, certainly not in time, but, following more than a decade of economic reform and growing prosperity, they could muster the expertise and resources to develop nukes.

What do you think about it? Do you think this could really happen? Interested in hearing from citizens of Eastern Europe, especially the Baltic States, Poland, Romania and the Ukraine or American servicemen and women currently serving in those regions.

[Jeff Head]

they can not count on Western Europe or the U.S. for the defense of their sovereignty

I believe the intial premise is faulty.

Poland certainly feels differently or they would bever have signed the agreement that they just signed. The Czechs, the Romanians, the Batlic countries, etc., etc. would also argue against this.

The Georgians are happy to see American aircraft in Tiblisis and American and NATO vessels off of their coasts as we speak.

Russia sprung a carefully planned trap on the Georgians and they are taking full advantage of our own mistake with Ksosvo to do so. They appear to have won round one. But in the end, Putin and his regime will pay dearly for it.

Georgia and Ukraine will end up in NATO, the Black Sea will now become a regular training and exercise area for the US and NATO, and Russia will suffer dimplomatically and economically for what it has done.

We shall see what the Central Asian Nations say, but given the situation with Taiwan, I hardly think China will endorse or back up what Russia did. The precedent will work against them and they will not go there IMHO.

[CondorFlight]

“Nothing else in this world provides a greater guarantee of sovereignty than having nuclear weapons as a deterrent.”

Absolutely. We should sell Poland a couple of dozen; that will guarantee Polish independence from Russia no matter what the US and the EU do.

[Repeal The 17th]

I also wonder if the Montreux Convention will be revisited.

[Rockingham]

For Poland especially, nukes of their own make sense strategic sense against the resurgence of their ancient enemy, Russia. Most of the EU would privately whisper thanks that a nuclear armed Poland was between them and Russia.

[Thunder90]

I think that the Chinese will back Russia, seeing that Georgia was formerly part of the USSR and the Russian empire.