Posted on 08/25/2008 1:08:28 PM PDT by lizol
Eastern Europe Can Defend Itself
By MAX BOOT
August 25, 2008; Page A13
Eastern Europeans are rightly alarmed about the brazenness and success of the Russian blitzkrieg into Georgia. For many living in Russia's shadow, this is reviving traumatic memories -- of 1968 for Czechs, 1956 for Hungarians, 1939 for Poles. It does not help that senior Russian generals are threatening to rain nuclear annihilation on Ukraine and Poland if they refuse to toe the Kremlin's line.
Even those states which, unlike Georgia and Ukraine, are already in NATO can take scant comfort. As Poland's foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, says, "Parchments and treaties are all very well, but we have a history in Poland of fighting alone and being left to our own devices by our allies."
Warsaw's response has been to draw closer to the United States, by rapidly concluding an agreement in long drawn-out negotiations over the basing of U.S. interceptor missiles on Polish soil. That's a good start, but it's a move of symbolic import only. The small number of interceptors are designed to shoot down an equally small number of Iranian missiles -- not the overwhelming numbers that Russia deploys. Poland and other states should be under no illusion they can count on the U.S. in a crisis. In the past we left Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the lurch. More recently we haven't done much to help Georgia.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Not a big student of Polish military history, but Jon Slobieski saved Western Civ's butt from the muzzies at the Battle of Vienna-only to be carved up by "allies" a few years later.
Likewise, Pilsudski (sp?) stopped the advance of communism in the 1920s by stopping the Russkies. I think the battle was the "Miracle at Vistula". Didn't work out too well for them. We supposedly went to war to stop the Nazis from expanding but Poland was also invaded by the Soviets. We stopped the Nazis but left the Poles to suffer at the hands of the Soviets. Patton was right-we should have pushed the Russians back while we were there.
During the Cold War, West Germany had a rather large armed force, and it was backed by a quarter of a million US troops based in Germany itself.
Since the Soviets had a force several times larger, at least in theory, this force was viewed as a trip wire that could trigger the use of nuclear force.
If Poland seriously sees itself at risk, along with Ukraine, the two of them must prepare a force sufficient to stop the Red Army themselves. It is doubtful that the US is going to put 250,000 troops in Poland, it no longer has them. And deploying a force in the east without western European backing is going to be problematic... and western Europe only barely held together as an alliance when they were themselves at risk; they are not going to back eastern Europe.
But if there is any hope of repelling a serious Soviet attack, Poland Ukraine and the US have to seriously re-think the size of their current armed forces. The US would provide certain kinds of support under fire, but it would be politically difficult to deploy troops in large numbers if the Soviets decided to march for real. Poland and Ukraine have to be able to hold the line while the ditherers dither.
If you are seriously outnumbered, and you are, you have to build a high-tech high-speed force based on the Israeli and American models. You have to be prepared to kill tanks by the hundreds, and this capability has to be available at the sargent’s level. You have to be able to deny air cover to the enemy, and this means an effective air wing of your own, and plenty of shoulder-fired missiles capable of knocking down jet aircraft, and these need to be widely available. You need high-tech high-speed tank killers that can outrun and outshoot anything the Russians have, and if they get better, you have to get way better.
It was never about defending Poland, it was about poking a finger in a big, fat Russian eye.
I am sure that everyone together can put Russia back in her hole to rethink her notions of being so powerful.
Hopefully the rest of the Eastern Block Nations and the Soviet breakaway States will adopt this line of thinking.
“Stupid idea. What do we do when Russia plows Eastern Europe under its jackboot and western Europe throws its hand up and capitulates? That’s what your plan would achieve.”
And that’s precisely what they want to see, in order to achieve isolationism again. The Russian invasion brought the Pat Buchanan types out in droves.
“Poland and other states should be under no illusion they can count on the U.S. in a crisis. In the past we left Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the lurch. More recently we haven’t done much to help Georgia.”
Not to mention Vietnam.
When it hasn’t been politically expedient, the US hasn’t always been the most reliable ally.
"Again" in their fantasies of some mythic yesteryear. America has never been isolationist.
The interceptor missiles ...
The Poles are not just getting a few interceptor missiles stuck in some corn field outside of Warsaw. This is the 21st Century and the big secret word for these times is “integration”.
There was an article posted here of FR in the last week, I think, that went into some detail about the nuts and bolts of how this system works. After reading it, I understood why Poland suddenly stopped dragging their feet and signed the agreement right after Russia made it's very flawed move into Georgia.
It also helps explain why the Ukraine is going to settle their internal political differences and join NATO shortly - integration.
During the Cold War, the way we countered the Soviet Union was to play a numbers game. Placing sufficient troops and their equipment in Europe to counter a conventional ground war, outspending them on advanced defensive and offensive programs like the XB70 supersonic bomber and Star Wars antimissile system for example.
Back to the Future - what Poland is getting with this anti ballistic missile system is full integration with our electronic umbrella. All of their military will be integrated into our European/NATO electronic defense shield and their military hardware will be upgraded to current US/NATO standards ...
... they are getting new military hardware and computers, command centers, elint aircraft, fighter wings, everything, the full Monty, the Works.
It is a full defensive shield, not a few missiles mixed in among the cornstalks.
That explains why the Czech Republic, I believe, jumped on this offer a while ago and agreed to the huge advanced radar and communications center that is a part of all this.
And it makes plain exactly how big a disaster this Georgia move was for Putin - because it is also pushing the Ukraine to offer up all their Soviet built radar installations for our perusal and upgrade, should they join in on the ABM system. Under the radar, their politicians that lean our way are almost crying for this.
There, did that say in many words what you said in a few?
:)
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