I believe Russia will pull back to the buffer zones round the two provinces and that they will move quickly to having referendums in those provinces to become independent of Georgia. I believe the people will vote to do so there and that we will have a very tough time diplomatically preventing it after the horrible and disasterous precedent Clinton established with Serbia and Kosovo.
That precedent was compounded further when Bush recognized Kosovo. should never have happened. it was wrong...but it has given the Russians (who want to pay us back for that episode) this opportunity.
Do not get me wrong, what Russia is doing is wrong and must be opposed...but if the Russians pull back and abide by the cease fire we agreed to, I see very little way of preventing the two Provinces from breaking away and Russia protecting them with troops on the borders and ultimately bases in those provinces proper.
We will have to get the rest of Georgia into NATO IMHO, and then rebuild and modernize their military, and probably have our own or MATO bases in Georgia to counter the Russian bases sure to be built in those two provinces.
As to Poland and the Ukraine...I expect the Russians will threaten and possibly cut off gas and/or oil to punish them and the Baltics and maybe other areas of Europe. Ultimately, if we could do that, the Russians will hurt economically (which I believe they will do anyway) and there will be a time of tension that could well develop into more of these border wars...the Russians trying to push those conflicts closer to our allies and outrselves as opposed to on their border.
With each one will come a risk of major war with Russia.
Ultimately, if we avoid that, and do produce and export our own oil (which means the American people will have to get behind it and shut down the dems), then the Russian people will ultimately eject Putin and his ilk and other like them and then maybe truly join the civilized world.
So you don’t think we’re on the cusp of going hot?
As for the Ukraine - Russia has been giving Ukraine citizens Russian passports (as Russia also did in SO, Georgia). Dual citizenship is prohibited in the Ukraine. If a high % of a province has Russian passports, R can start trouble again and then just say he’s protecting his citizens.
This isn’t over..he’s power hunger and angry.