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Tropical Storm Fay
NOAA/NHC ^ | 15 August 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse

The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.

Updates:

Atlantic Tropical Info

Satellite:

Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop

Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys

Radar

Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop

Storm Track Models

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: alabama; fay; florida; georgia; invest92; mississippi; noaa; tropical; tsfay; weather
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Will Fay survive the rugged terrain of Hispanola? Is the Gulf of Mexico prepared for another tropical storm? Stay tuned...
1 posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:38 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

Watching! 8+)


2 posted on 08/15/2008 1:26:58 PM PDT by Ditter
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; ...
The system that has confounded weather watchers has finally
earned the name Fay.

Floridians--stay alert...


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

3 posted on 08/15/2008 1:28:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the update, NN!


4 posted on 08/15/2008 1:28:49 PM PDT by SAJ
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To: NautiNurse
Mustn't panic!


5 posted on 08/15/2008 1:29:14 PM PDT by Hazwaste (Vote! Vote for the conservative local, state, and national candidates of your choice, but VOTE!)
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To: NautiNurse

The NHC has become wishcasters instead of forecasters. So desperate are they to have a named storm, they went ahead and issued a name before it meets their own definition of a TD - namely a low-level circulation. Has Bastardi gone to work for the NHC?


6 posted on 08/15/2008 1:29:43 PM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: abb

“....The NHC has become wishcasters instead of forecasters. So desperate are they to have a named storm, they went ahead and issued a name before it meets their own definition of a TD...”

Actually the poster of this thread jumped the gun. The NHC website has not made such announcement.


7 posted on 08/15/2008 1:34:16 PM PDT by Islander7 ("Show me an honest politician and I will show you a case of mistaken identity.")
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To: NautiNurse
Will Fay survive the rugged terrain of Hispanola?

Correct. Pico Duarte on Santo Domingo is about 10,000 feet high. Also the storm tracks take it over Cuba which has mountains in Oriente province. This storm might hit Florida but I don't see how it can build up much power over those mountains.

8 posted on 08/15/2008 1:34:40 PM PDT by PJ-Comix (Join the DUmmie FUnnies PING List ---The BIGGEST on the FR!!!)
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To: abb

Everything I have read and heard about this storm has bewildered the experts. This system has had excellent presentation for the past day. Having lived through a storm that was overlooked/ignored shortly after 9-11-2001, I would much prefer the watches and warnings associated with the upgrade.


9 posted on 08/15/2008 1:35:50 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

I had a girlfriend in HS named Fay. They don’t name girls with names like that anymore..................


10 posted on 08/15/2008 1:35:54 PM PDT by Red Badger (All that carbon in all that oil and coal was once in the atmosphere. We're just putting it back.....)
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To: Islander7
Actually the poster of this thread jumped the gun.

Do you want to make a correction to your post now? Or would you prefer to wait until 5:01PM ET...your choice.

11 posted on 08/15/2008 1:40:17 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

I’ve been following Wunderground the past few days, too. Some of those folks want it so bad, it’s ridiculous.

It may turn into a TS or a TD, but it ain’t there yet, according to the NHC’s own rules. If they want to have flexible rules to accommodate Joe Bastardi wannabes, then all they have to do is say so.


12 posted on 08/15/2008 1:40:51 PM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: Islander7

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 15, 2008

...Tropical Storm Fay forms...sixth Atlantic storm of the season...

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that the low pressure area over the Mona Passage became a
tropical storm as it moved into the eastern Dominican Republic.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic
has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic for
the entire north coast of the Dominican Republic and for the South
Coast east of San Pedro de macoris. A Tropical Storm Warning is
also in effect for the north coast of Haiti from gonaives
northward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago
de Cuba...and Granma.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
tropical storm watch for the provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 18.5 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 35
miles... 55 km...east of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and
about 395 miles...635 km...east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A general
motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track...the center of Fay will cross
Hispaniola tonight and Saturday...and pass near or over eastern
Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly over water to the north and east of the center.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Tides of 1 to 2 feet feet above normal can be expected in the
warning area in areas of onshore flow.

Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba...with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...18.5 N...69.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


13 posted on 08/15/2008 1:41:33 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

Oh well, the storm track comes right over my area in the Lower Fl. Keys. The models have it coming right up from Cuba, so not much time over open water to strengthen.

We can sure use the damn rain. This is the driest “rainy season” I have seen in 32 years of living in the Keys.


14 posted on 08/15/2008 1:42:07 PM PDT by jsh3180
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To: NautiNurse

I’m running down to the beach this weekend to clean up and get ready for the September storms.


15 posted on 08/15/2008 1:42:26 PM PDT by PeteB570 (Keeping an eye on the Frying Pan Shoals Buoy)
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To: NautiNurse

I’ve been watching this all day; it dumped 2.00 inches on PR overnight and is moving rather steadily but looks like it’s got a lot of ground to cover and little chance of getting back over open warm waters to fully develop.


16 posted on 08/15/2008 1:44:41 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: NautiNurse

How fey.


17 posted on 08/15/2008 1:45:23 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: abb

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a thunderstorm named after you?


18 posted on 08/15/2008 1:46:15 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: abb

BTW, when I was in meteorology we called those guys forcecasters.


19 posted on 08/15/2008 1:47:06 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Islander7
Weatherunderground has it named Fay:


20 posted on 08/15/2008 1:49:59 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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