Clemenza, I agree with your predictions.
In Michigan, Obama will win huge margins in Detroit and its heavily black suburbs, as well as in college towns such as Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti and East Lansing, but will run poorly in traditionally Democrat blue-collar white areas such as the “Downriver” towns south of Detroit (including losing big in Monroe County) and in the formerly blue-collar, now middle-class Macomb County suburbs; John McCain should also win huge margins in the Thumb and run about even in the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City corridor. The white rural areas in the northern half of the Mitten, where Gore and Kerry ran surprisingly strongly, will not vote for Obama, nor will the UP. If things go as they appear to be going, I think McCain will turn President Bush’s 48% near-miss into a 52% victory.
Ohio should be an even bigger win for McCain. Obama may not do as poorly in SE and East OH as he did in the RAT primary, but he certainly won’t win the types of margins that he would need in order to have a chance statewide. Right now, I’d say that McCain will win it 54%-45%.
In Pennsylvania, Obama will win hellacious margins in Philly (although maybe not so much in the NE part of the city nor the white ethnic parts of South Philly) and in black parts of Delco, but McCain will carry Bucks and maybe even Montco (Jewish voters will not turn out for Obama, and McCain has affirmative strength among liberal Republicans) and should win big in the Chester-Berks area and the Lehigh Valley (as well as, it goes without saying, the Lancaster area). The Coal Country around Scranton/Wilkes-Barre won’t give Obama the margins he needs, and the “T” should vote as heavily Republican as ever. In Western PA (the Pittsburgh, Beaver and Erie areas), I think that the movement towards President Bush that we saw in 2000 and 2004 would have continued even had Hillary been the Democrat nominee, but with Obama as the candidate it should give McCain a comfortable margin of victory. Overall, I think that Senator McCain will carry PA by a 53%-46% margin unless something changes between now and November.
If John McCain carries OH, PA and MI, Obama would be able to get to 270 EVs only if he (i) holds all of the remaining Kerry states (including NH, WI, MN, NJ and OR), which would be very difficult for him, and (ii) carries each of FL, NV, NM, IA, CO and either VA or MO, which is not going to happen. I think John McCain will defeat Obama with over 300 electoral votes unless he picks a liberal runningmate and screws up royally the rest of the way.
Now...if Hillary pulls out the nomination, PA will go for Clinton. Period.
John McCain tried to score points with Pennsylvanians by touring with Tom Ridge and implying that Ridge is a serious contender to be McCain’s running mate. I’m not expecting that McCain will actually choose him, but he is trying to score points with both Pennsylvania voters and the press. Not a good idea, IMHO.
Bush won Macomb in 04 actually.
I hope you guys are right with the optimistic assessment. I vacillate between believing Bosama is certain to win and that he is certain to lose.