Posted on 08/12/2008 1:23:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The year was 1984, and the state was Iowa. A white man who had just voted walked out of his precinct caucus and saw the Rev. Jesse Jackson standing outside.
''I did all I could,'' the man told Jackson ruefully, ''but I just couldn't bring myself to pull the lever and vote for you.''
L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him, the sting eased by time and Wilder's vantage point as the nation's first elected black governor.
Now it's a quarter of a century later, and the man everyone's talking about is Barack Obama, the Illinois senator holding a slim lead in many polls. But can the polls be trusted? A central question about race and politics hasn't changed since 1984: Do white people lie--to pollsters or even to themselves--about their willingness to vote for black candidates?
In the not-so-distant past, the consensus was a clear yes. Today, however, there is widespread disagreement about whether Obama is subject to the predicament known as the Wilder or Bradley Effect -- whether in the privacy of the voting booth, white people will actually pull the lever for the first black man to come within shouting distance of the presidency.
Given that surveys can have trouble uncovering the truth about many things besides race, plus the massive technological, demographic and cultural changes in play, this question is contributing to an almost unprecedented air of uncertainty surrounding this year's polls.
In 1989, Wilder polled as many as 15 points ahead in the days before the election for Virginia governor, but squeaked into office by a minuscule 6,700 votes. David Dinkins had a similar experience that year, when he became New York City's first black mayor.
(Excerpt) Read more at editorandpublisher.com ...
Sorry, I don't buy it. The phenomenon is real, but the Jackson story is made up. And it's real, not because whites are racist, but because libs are embarassed to admit that they won't vote for the black guy, because they fear being labeled as racist, even if they are not. It's political correctness, is what it is.
You beat me to it.
You need to put up a thread on MLK’s political party. If you do, please ping me.
[Mr] T
So the despised "rich white men" are more racially tolerant than the poor that Rev. Wright & friends portray as paragons of virtue?
Who would have thunk it?
bttt
I know a lot of democrats, and they’re not moonbats like the national dem party. They’re not racists, either (however, we’ve got a few of those here in Appalachia.) But, not one will indicate any kind of support for Obama—the Brady effect? I think not. It’s the empty suit, un-American that turns them off-—so much so they’re somewhat ashamed that he’s now their party’s standard-bearer.
Guilt by innuendo....more playing of the Jesse Jackson race card.
Those who vote against Obama will vote against him because he is incredibly inexperienced and unprepared to lead this nation. He’s never been an executive, a governor, a military leader, a successful businessman or professional. He did something called “community organizing” and by his own report he didn’t have the best results. He’s never passed a significant piece of legislation. He was in a state legislature a few years, and then after a breathtaking 143 days in the US Senate he declared he was going to run for the presidency. Since that time, that’s all he’s done.
Obama’s inexperience is beyond belief.
“What if all polls are wrong, as they have been in previous campaigns, because the media is oversampling Democrats to depress the Republican turnout?”
Didn’t the election-day polls say Kerry would win by over 300? Over 320, even, if you count Zogby?
Looks as if the AP is looking for an out, an excuse when Obama does NOT win this November.
“Looks as if the AP is looking for an out, an excuse when Obama does NOT win this November.”
I agree with that. They started doing the same thing with Kerry in 2004, but waited until October to do it.
But for the sake of argument here, yeah, I will say I am voting for Obama and will vote for McCain. So?
I wanted to vote for an Eskimo pygmy used furniture salesman raised by renegade Baptist floor installers who are descendands of Jesse James and Tarzan. The democrats are racists for not running my dream candidate.
Plus, most of the remaining undecided voters out there are working class whites. Not exactly the core Obama constituency.
Obama should be pleased that he is now ahead (narrowly). On the other hand, he should be very worried that he has not sealed the deal yet and that winning over the remaining 5% of the voters he needs to win is going to prove to be MUCH tougher than it was winning the first 45%.
Neither do I.
Exactly right. If they can blame the loss of the election on racism, then they don't have to address the leftism of their candidate in public. Then they can run another leftist in 2012. Remember, they ran a leftist in 1988 and said the reason he lost was because of the "Willie Horton" commercial. They ran a leftist in 2004 and said he lost because of the Swift Boat Veterans.
[When is the last time that August polls accurately portrayed the outcome of a November election?]
Even better, how often have the Repubs been much further behind at this point and come back to win?
I think Obambi is toast.
Good to see you sir ! It’s not an election without you.
If your a pacifist and really rich, you could throw electronics in one direction and run in the opposite direction.
It's been that way from "jump", and we still have 2 1/2 months to go. It's gonna get even nuttier, before Der Tag...
the infowarrior
I think the opposite is likely to happen. Polls sample 'likely voters' which is code for 'voted in the last Presidential election'. I believe Obama may be drawing in quite a few normally apothetic liberals who just couldn't get too excited about John Kerry.
**a blatant attempt at guilt tripping whitey into voting for Obama**
I agree with your theory. And we both see it happening, don’t we?
Obama plays the Race card all the way.
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