Gallup Daily: Obama 47%, McCain 42% (McCain has not led since May, underperforming Bush everywhere)

Gallup ^ | August 9, 2008 | Gallup

[nwrep]

Comments:

Getting concerned as McCain has not led since May. Even the electoral college tally on Rasmussen has had Obama solidly ahead like a rock.

McCain is underperforming Bush in almost all Republican and swing states, including CO, NV, NM, OH, WI, MT, IA, IN, GA, NC, VA, and so on.

Despite an impressive anti-Obama ad barrage, McCain has still not managed to demonstrate a winning electoral college mosaic so far.

[Red Steel]

REGISTERED VOTERS. What are the internals? 52% Dem, 36% Rep, 12% other like in the last poll I saw with Obama ahead by 6 points? (Seriously, not kidding. They polled almost 50% more Dems than Reps and still got the Obamanation up by only 6%.)

This is Gallup? Polling like this really shows Obama getting trounced.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“He should be easily putting McCain away! “

But he’s not. There is nothing ‘hip’ about associating with people who say things like Rev. Wright has said. There is nothing ‘hip’ about associating with people who have espoused and produced violence against your country. You are right, of course, but I’m hoping that the electorate is wiser than we’ve given them credit for.

[Maelstorm]

Obama is not going to win Montana. Anyone who believes he is has a drug problem. We aren’t even close to the hard hitting stuff yet. Obama is in trouble. The election has always been McCain’s to lose. The conventional wisdom is wrong. McCain only loses if he refuses to fight which of course is what the mainstream media is encouraging him to do.

[shield]

Yes, he will. If PIAPS continues to be out the PUMA's will all be voting for McCain.

PUMA=Party Unity My Azz

[nwrep]

Bush reclaimed the Gallup lead shortly afterwards.

[commonguymd]

That information does not bode well for Obama. Clinton is right - he will get trounced in the GA. To McCain of all people.

[Red Steel]

Ohio is probably their best bet to flip enough EVs to win the election, but McCain has been running strong there as well.

Yes, Rasmussen latest Ohio poll has McCain up by 10%.

[LdSentinal]

No. Bush reclaimed the lead in early March.

51%-47% - I remember fondly posting that Gallup poll.

[Jim W N]

Yup. The others I’ve figured out so far. Acronyms kind of turn me off, but then I’m not a popular-culture kind of guy. Keep me posted. Thanks.

[Sooth2222]

Those polled by Gallup are only registered voters and not “likely” voters.

This Gallup is a three day rolling average that also includes Friday polling. The only polling to pay attention to is the polling reported on Thursday and Friday during the summer.

On the July 28 Gallup/USA Today poll of likely voters, McCain was up by 4 points.

None of the polling reflects the "Bradley Effect", "Republican Summer Vacation Effect", etc. etc. He's doing extremely well in an environment of $4 gasoline (going down) and a war (going very well).

Expect a bounce for Osama following the 'rat convention, maybe even to double digits. If McCain is down by 7 in mid-October, then it's time to panic.

[SolidWood]

This is just... gay. Obama looks like the missing third Brokeback Mountain rear-ranger.

[Red Steel]

Obama is still favored to win, be he has NOTHING THERE.

An opportunity to clean up in Vegas betting against Obama.

[M203M4]

Some in his campaign seem to have recently realized that McCain's love affair with the MSM is over, and as goes the media, so goes the brainless, mushy, easily-led "moderates". Those folks need to be given the reigns. The campaign needs to firm up support within the conservative base, and fast. The core is where you draw campaign donations, volunteers, and general footwork.

It will require burning bridges between McCain and the leftists - and frankly, I do not see how McCain can be trusted otherwise anyway. Maybe they will be able to in the future, but Republicans today CANNOT win without the support of the Right. It is going to come down to turnout - Clintonian triangulation is not going to cut it, and I sincerely hope the campaign does not go that route. A conservative running mate combined with a clear denunciation of a suitably sacred leftist holy cow would be a strong guarantee that McCain is not going to be the POTUS equivalent of a David Souter.

[Lady Jag]

No, please don’t rewrite history.

I was just thinking let's not repeat history.

[dfwgator]

That pic reminds of Eddie Murphy in “48 Hours”, “There’s a new sheriff in town and his name is Barack Obama, y’all be cool..right on!”

[comebacknewt]

To win the election, McCain needs to win all of the following "swing" states, some of which are not really swing states, but since the MSM says they are, might as well list them:

Montana
Indiana
Colorado
Virginia
North Carolina
Nevada
Missouri
Florida
Ohio.

He could also win the election if he loses some of those, but flips a state like Pennsylvania or Michigan, although I think that is a much tougher path. So, lets concentrate on the swing states.

Although the results are mixed, there are recent polls out there in every one of the states listed that shows McCain leading. At the very least, he is well within striking distance in every single one of them.

Anyone arguing there isn't a plausible roadmap for a McCain EC victory isn't paying close enough attention, IMHO.

[LdSentinal]

This link might make you feel better.

McCain 47% - Obama 46%

[advertising guy]

ahhh....the Marlboro Muslim !!!

[goldfinch]

McCain will be fine.

I am sure he will be fine. But will he be President? I wouldn't put my hard earned money on it.

[Sooth2222]

FWIW, Gallup "likely voter" polling (not "registered voter") from 2004.

Obama has trouble breaking 50, Kerry didn't.