Posted on 08/09/2008 11:11:02 AM PDT by TLI
Good. I don’t know who started this, but it should stop right now.
Yes. As long as the Russians withdraw.
If Putin can make a few fast deals and get the Americans (remember them? U.S. Army Europe’s 18th Military Police Brigade and 21st Theater Sustainment Command) to confirm that the Georgians will “go static” and not escalate the issue with their troops from Iraq, he just might get the Russian troops “reason” to pull back a bit.
Looks like we know which side is losing.
I would be willing to bet Putin is spitting nails that sombody on the SO side sparked this when the Americans were in town. They can make a lot of fancy claims about what the Georgians and the Americans must do but they know they don’t have the horspower to force it to happen.
Uh, if anyone has the horsepower available for a land war in their own backyard, its Russia. They’re not tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan as we are.
If Georgia wants to end this they need to bomb and collapse the Roki tunnel connecting Ossetia to Russia.
i dont think georgia has a snowballs chance in hell.
I wish you were referring to the Florida-Georgia game instead of a war with Russia.
they don't, and it's not really our fight, but that tunnel is the Achille's Heel for SO and the Russians.
Two lanes wide. Put a 2000 pounder through the mouth and boom ... no more tunnel and resupply to SO and the Russian forces in place get's uglier than sin.
It started hundreds of years ago. Oil and gas resources from the Caucasus have upped the stakes considerably. Two big personalities, Putin and the President of Georgia are clashing in a major way, along with separatists in Ossetia. Not an easy one to resolve. Putin is determined to puff the chest and not just on fishing trips.
re: “if anyone has the horsepower available for a land war in their own backyard, its Russia”
Just like so many other things in life, it depends. Just on the other side of the Caucasus mountains from South Ossetia is the Chechen Republic, which has been at war intermittently with Russia from approx. 1995 to approx. 2003. Large parts of Chechnya still experience low level conflict with Russia. More clearly: very close to Georgia, and on the same side of the Caucaus mountains as the Russian supply lines, there are still a large number of experienced, violent, and not completely passified Chechens who probably would be more than happy to tie down Russian forces in this conflict. Chechens have been reproducing like crazy in the last few decades, and there’s therefore a large pool of young people to be led by their more experienced relatives against the Russians, should Chechens decide they want to “get some.”
On the other side of Georgia, there’s Turkey, which has historically had a great interest in not having Russia extend up to it’s border. Turkey has already committed to selling electricity to Georgia after this conflict started.
On the other side of the Black Sea, there’s Bulgaria and Romania, both of which have strong anti-Russian movements.
On the other side of Russia (separated by Belarus) is Poland, which has a very strong anti-Russian sentiment. And, of course, there’s the Baltic states, where (up until this latest Georgian thing) one of the big issues was tearing down remnants of Russian occupation.
And, of course, there’s China. Some elements of Chinese government have been coveting the depopulating region of Siberia as a new home for the 1.1 billion Chinese currently crammed into China. Further, by invading Georgia, Russia just stole China’s glory at China’s Olympic coming-out party. That may be a more volatile combination than what is generally recognized.
So, while Russia may not have any major active conflicts, other than the one in Georgia, going on right now, Russia is surrounded by countries that largely hate Russians, and which might support the Georgians. If I was a Russian commander, I wouldn’t bet that those other countries wouldn’t get involved. That would sap Russian “horsepower” in a hurry.
Would Turkey or any of those other countries you mentioned be willing to become involved in a war with Russia in support of Georgia? If the answer is no, then their support is next to meaningless. All Russia has to do is simply steamroll over the opposition and wait for the condemnations to die down. They have the forces to do so as was the case in Chechnya and they certainly have the funding to ignore the outside world (thank you $4.50 for a gallon of gas).
Russia acknowledged that Georgian forces had shot down two Russian warplanes, while a senior Georgian official said the Georgians had destroyed 10 Russian jets.
The US has truckloads of current combat active forces just to the south and relatively speaking just as close.
What with the resources that are in the immediate area running every form of surveillance known to man and undoubtedly under constant spy sat observation the US can rat out every time the SO's and Russians pee. It would not take much on the part of the Americans in the area to "convince" the Russians that moving into Georgia proper would not be wise.
Are you advocating a war with Russia in support of Georgia? Under what treaty obligations are we bound to defend them against a thermonuclear power? With our military stretched to the limit in Afghanistan and Iraq, where are we going to find the ground troops to take on this somewhat arduous task? Most importantly, why would we want to stick our nose into a conflict that doesn’t appear to involve fighting terrorists or threatens our national security interests?
Can Georgian calls for a cease-fire be taken seriously when on Friday just a few hours after calling a unilateral cease-fire they started shelling Tskhinvali?
Turkey has already started to get involved, in the sense that after hostilities started, they committed to sell supplies (electricity in this case) to Georgia. There are Chechen separatists who’ve been fighting their own ongoing war with Russia for well over a decade now (though, of course, I recognize that, for the most part, the major conflict in Chechnya is at a standstill). US advisors are already stationed in Georgia. This active phase of the Georgian / Russian war has just begun; it’s too soon to tell just yet what other countries will get involved, but, so far, there’s some indication that Georgia will not be alone.
As for “steamrolling” over the opposition as they did in Chechnya: it took the Russians about a decade to “steamroll” the Chechens — who aren’t yet completely flattened. The Russian military is large, but, from all accounts, it’s poorly led, fed, equipped, trained, and motivated. The Georgian military is relatively tiny, but it’s apparently very motivated, and large parts of it have just been trained and equipped by US advisors as part of the war in Iraq. Further, the Georgians don’t have any other significant conflicts looming on the horizon.
So, again, it depends. If the Russians don’t steamroll the Georgians quickly, then the Georgians might be able to gather international support ... and then all bets are off.
Correct and I think it’s a good time to pull our Marines and GIs out of Georgia ASAP. The Marines have at least a battalion in joint exercisies and The Army has a substantial training unit with the Georgian forces. While I think a battalion of combat tested Marines could deliver bloody nose to the Russians, it’s not something that we need to do at this time. Send in the C17s and GTHOOT.
U.S. Army Europe's 18th Military Police Brigade and 21st Theater Sustainment Command and Georgian Soldiers from the 4th Infantry Brigade have been engaged in a joint FX since 7 July. They are literally eyeballing the fighting, er shelling. so far the only thing the Russians have been clobbering is the S.O's. Which in every other breath the "news agencies" reports are "breakaway" from Georgia and loyal to the Russians. If that is so Russia ain't making many friends right now.
What makes you think we would put any ground troops in any significant numbers?
Keeping the oil flowing would be a good start. Putin wants to control it but if a war blows up the damn place there is nothing for Putin and "waz his name" to control.
What would you do? Go past S.O. into Georgia proper? With the U.S. currently conducting joint FX with those very same Georgians? Or make a big deal out of moving into territory that is occupied by folks that are "loyal" to the Russians anyway? Check the photos at the NYT. Plenty of the Russians. See any of the Georgian troops in the NYT article? Isn't that odd...
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