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Rasmussen: Wisconsin Getting Closer, Obama By Four
Rasmussen ^

Posted on 08/07/2008 2:21:55 PM PDT by maccaca

Barack Obama's 11-point lead in Wisconsin is now down to four. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama leading John McCain 47% to 43%. When “leaners” are included in the totals, Obama leads 51% to 44%.

Last month, in the first Wisconsin poll conducted since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Obama was ahead of his Republican opponent 50% to 39%. Obama is supported by 86% of Wisconsin Democrats, McCain by 95% of Republicans. Voters not affiliated with either major party are evenly divided.

The Democrat leads by a 2-to-1 margin among voters under 30 while McCain has a seven percentage point advantage among voters over 65.

McCain leads among those earning $40,000 to $75,000 a year. His opponent is ahead among those who earn above that level and below it.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of Wisconsin voters, roughly the same number as last month. But Obama is now given favorable marks by 53%, down from 61% in July.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; electionpresident; mccain; obama; obamamccain; wi2008
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To: maccaca
...while Obama heads to Hawaii to pick pineapples with Gomer Pyle.
21 posted on 08/07/2008 2:59:19 PM PDT by Crawdad (I am my brother's keeper. I am not your brother's keeper.)
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To: Proudcongal
“The SurveyUSA poll has Obama up only by 3 in OREGON.”

WOW! The only bumper stickers and yard signs I have seen have been Obama. I have not seen anything for McCain. The Messiah needs more air pressure in his tires.

22 posted on 08/07/2008 3:14:27 PM PDT by mickey finn
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To: maccaca

I believe Mr. McCain can win Wisconsin. He should not waste a dime or a minute in Michigan. The demographics have shifted in Michigan to voters who are welfare bums, government retirees and con-men living off SS disability or workmen’s comp.

Only millions of bums, con-artists and thieves sponging off taxpayers would vote to re-elect a stupid governor (Granholm - commie) who gave Michigan the highest unemployment in the nation, month after month after year after year...

Wisconsin is the Midwest state to go after. Go Bucky Badger! Give us a win for Mr. McCain.


23 posted on 08/07/2008 3:28:17 PM PDT by sergeantdave (We are entering the Age of the Idiot)
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To: maccaca

Gets rather cold in Wisconsin in the winter.
Perhaps some of those raving Madison Liberals are starting to realize just how expensive their heating costs could be this winter.


24 posted on 08/07/2008 3:33:37 PM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: Diana in Wisconsin; Extremely Extreme Extremist; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Kuksool; ...

The signs are good. Obama will clime once again after the convention, but the more voters know about him, the more wary they become.


25 posted on 08/07/2008 4:29:29 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (If Islam conquers the world, the Earth will be at peace because the human race will be killed off.)
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To: ridesthemiles; All

Nah. They’ll have their bongs to keep them warm, LOL!

McCain’s commercials here are very effective. Just a hand-full of counties will be completely owned by Obama. The others will vote for McCain.

However, those held by Obama will be 100% blue, and are the highest in population, so it’s going to be close. We only lost WI to Kerry by 11,841 votes!

If only they’d allow the cows to vote on our side to balance out the dead and the incarcerated that will be voting for Obama. ;)


26 posted on 08/07/2008 5:32:44 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (Save The Earth. It's The Only Planet With Chocolate.)
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To: ConservativeDude
things are moving slow, but...they are moving our way

We don't want them moving too quickly. I'd hate to see Hillary! on the ballot in Obambi's place.

27 posted on 08/07/2008 5:50:50 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: maccaca
Wisconsin is in the bag. We lost there in the last two elections by very small margins. There was cigarettes for votes scandals in Milwaukee and a few other items. Now this rat nomination will put us over. The demographics of Wisconsin. are the same as the demos in Pa.
28 posted on 08/08/2008 4:09:45 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: comebacknewt
I'd hate to see Hillary! on the ballot in Obambi's place.

I'd love it, the resulting fight in the Rat party would last for a generation or more. Especially if she won.

29 posted on 08/08/2008 4:14:44 AM PDT by hunter112 (The 'straight talk express' gets the straight finger express from me.)
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To: comebacknewt

I think the biggest risk right now is Hillary forcing herself on as veep, which could make McCain’s task more difficult. I can’t beieve the Dems could take it from Bambi at this point and survive in November!


30 posted on 08/08/2008 4:17:56 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: maccaca

I don’t have access to the poll’s internals, but it seems to me that if Obama is up by 4% (and by 7% when leaners are included) despite only getting 86% of the Democrat vote (compared to McCain getting 95% of the Republican vote) while the two candidates split the independent vote that Rasmussen either (i) used a really bad likely-voter filter or (ii) purposely oversampled Democrats. I think Wisconsin will go down to the wire once again.

Here’s what Pollster.com wrote about WI party ID

“The second point is to compare these trends with those in exit poll measures of party id. In 2000, the VNS Exit poll put Wisconsin pid at 37% Dem, 32% Rep and 31% Ind. This shifted in 2004 to 35% Dem, 27% Ind and 38% Rep. But in 2006 the exit polls found that the balance was 38% Dem, 34% Rep and 27% Ind. Those values all show a smaller share of independents at the polls on election day compared to the polling trend, but that is to be expected given differences in turnout between partisans and independents. The size of the party ID groups grows as a result, but the balance between them is in line with what we see in the trends in the polls, though certainly not an exact match. The polls, after all, are of either adults or likely voters, while the exits are by definition a measure of who actually showed up on election day.

For 2006, the Dem exit percent and the Dem trend estimate are a close match. Republicans gain in the exits, by about 6 points over the 2006 trend estimate. If that holds for 2008, we might expect an electorate more like 38% Dem and 30% Rep. Of course both parties will have very active “ground games” and GOTV efforts to try to change those numbers.”

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/trends_in_party_identification.php


31 posted on 08/08/2008 6:43:03 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Fred Thompson appears human-sized because he is actually standing a million miles away.)
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To: sergeantdave

I think that Senator McCain can carry Wisconsin, but I also think he has a real shot at winning Michigan (which, if it happened, would pretty much clinch the election for him). President Bush got 48% in Michigan in 2004, and Obama has serious problems with the blue-collar whites that were instrumental in Michigan voting for Clinton, Gore and Kerry.


32 posted on 08/08/2008 12:20:57 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Fred Thompson appears human-sized because he is actually standing a million miles away.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin; maccaca; JohnnyZ; fieldmarshaldj; Kuksool; Clintonfatigued; ...

I just noticed something interesting about Wisconsin’s voting paterns in presidential elections over the past 80 years. Looking at elections in 20-year intervals commencing in 1928, the state voted Republican in 1928, Democrat in 1948, Republican in 1968, and Democrat in 1988-—only Iowa voted the same way. And if we look at the preceeding election to each such election (i.e., at the election 4 years earlier), we see that Wisconsin did not vote for the Republican in 1924, did not vote for the Democrat in 1944, did not vote for the Republican in 1964, and did not vote for the Democrat in 1984. Well, if the pattern continues, Wisconsin will vote for Republican presidential candidate John McCain in 2008, since the state voted for the Democrat not just in 1988 but also 2004.


33 posted on 08/08/2008 12:41:14 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Fred Thompson appears human-sized because he is actually standing a million miles away.)
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To: ridesthemiles

There should be groups like ...

Minnesotans FOR Global Warming.


34 posted on 08/08/2008 12:44:28 PM PDT by WOSG (http://no-bama.blogspot.com/ - NObama, stop the Hype and Chains candidate)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

“I think that Senator McCain can carry Wisconsin, but I also think he has a real shot at winning Michigan (which, if it happened, would pretty much clinch the election for him). President Bush got 48% in Michigan in 2004, and Obama has serious problems with the blue-collar whites that were instrumental in Michigan voting for Clinton, Gore and Kerry.”

I think you are right. MI, WI, and PA are the ‘attainable’ blue states. He should also be looking out for MN, NJ and OR.

The key with those 3 is that they are also Senate race states, and we could pull an upset in NJ if we try hard at it.


35 posted on 08/08/2008 12:48:47 PM PDT by WOSG (http://no-bama.blogspot.com/ - NObama, stop the Hype and Chains candidate)
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To: maccaca

OBAMA IS A ZERO!
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/08/obama-is-zero.html


36 posted on 08/08/2008 12:59:39 PM PDT by WOSG (http://no-bama.blogspot.com/ - NObama, stop the Hype and Chains candidate)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

bttt


37 posted on 08/08/2008 1:09:02 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55 (Obama is the Democrats guy. They bought the ticket, now they must take the ride.)
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To: Always Right

Take it too the bank, you are goin to see the Fauxbama LEANERS turn battleground and then McCain leaners thoughout the upper midwest and plain state.

Iowa is Lean D because McCain is a very vocal opponent of ethynol subsidies. However once the people of Iowa see what Fauxbam-uh is all about even that one will probably move McCain.

Fauxbama will not take WI, he’s already lost MI and tons more.

For such a stuffed shirt/empty slate to have any chance in Nov he needs to have 15-20 point lead right now.. and he hasn’t cracked outside the margin of error nationally since HillBilly dropped out, and hasn’t gotten over the 10 point range in many of the states.

He can’t win.. fight hard, don’t give him an inch, but I just see no way this guy can win a national election


38 posted on 08/08/2008 1:17:58 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: WOSG

That’s interesting how all of those states (in which President Bush got between 46%-49% in 2004, BTW) have Senate elections this year.

I think that you forgot to mention New Hampshire among the attainable Kerry states (please don’t call them “blue states”; the Democrats’ color should be Commie red); actually, I think that McCain has the advantage over Obama there. NH also has a Senate election in 2008, BTW (and it will be a close one, a rematch between incumbent Republican John Sununu, Jr. and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen).

Delaware, Connecticut, Maine, California and Washington are also theoretically attainable for Senator McCain, but if those states are in play it would be evidence of a McCain blowout.


39 posted on 08/08/2008 1:20:43 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Fred Thompson appears human-sized because he is actually standing a million miles away.)
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To: HamiltonJay

I didn’t see how Al Gore could win, but he was only one butterfly ballot away from winning. Kerry was a loser too, but he within a state away from winning. I can’t see how any of the Democrats stand a chance, but they keep coming so close.


40 posted on 08/08/2008 2:20:21 PM PDT by Always Right (Obama: more arrogant than Bill Clinton, more naive than Jimmy Carter, and more liberal than LBJ.)
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