Could Obama still lose the nomination? (Maybe!)

American Thinker ^ | August 07, 2008 | Denis Keohane

[neverdem]

Will Hillary outsmart Obama and take the nomination at the last minute?

Many of us familiar with Hillary Clinton's approach to achieving her goals refused to believe that she ever gave up all hope of winning the nomination and the presidency. Her words and actions on the subject of the convention itself always left the door open for a return, should Obama falter or suffer some calamity. 

Her artful evasions were enough to lull journalists and (more importantly) Obama and his supporters into the presumption of inevitability. No further rumblings of a mass protest in Denver should the first black candidate be denied his rightful due were heard. After all, he received enough publicly expressed support from super delegates to put him over the top. And he won the popular vote in the primaries, we were assured, lending legitimacy to the super delegates who voiced their support.

Everyone presumed the presumptive nominee was a lock.

Now there are a few signs that Hillary may be making her move.

 - Blogger Patterico alludes to the Hillary Clinton campaign burning up the phone lines to the super delegates.

 - Bill Clinton told ABC News, "I am not a racist" and contended the race card was played against him. Even when prompted in the same interview to state that Obama was ready for the Presidency, he did not deliver.

 - Hillary's PUMA ( short for "Party Unity My A--.") supporters in Denver and nationally plan a rally at a Denver park during the convention.

 - ABC news reported yesterday that Hillary Clinton does not rule out putting her name in nomination,contradicting earlier press reports.

Many people, including no doubt a goodly number of nervous Democrat super delegates, are asking themselves the David Brooks' question about Obama's standing in the polls: "Where's the landslide  ?" After evaluating him for several months, voters in the middle still aren't ready to embrace him.

National polls show not only a tightening of the Obama-McCain race to a statistical dead heat but momentum toward a McCain lead, something inconceivable only weeks ago. The specter of an Obama collapse has to haunt more than a few super delegates.

Buyer's remorse seemed evident and growing among many Democrats toward the end of their primary season when Obama lost again and again to Clinton, even as the delegate math was by then stacked in his favor. That remorse was put on hold (but apparently not resolved) by Obama's seeming to secure the nomination and the subsequent popular boost he enjoyed at first. But lately the candidate with a difference has had a hard time living up to his promise to be a new kind of politician.

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama has 1766.5 pledged delegates, 352 short of the 2118 needed to secure the nomination. He also has 463 super delegates, which puts him over the top -- if they hold. If a combination of Clinton campaigning and nervousness can cause a hundred and twenty or so super delegates to sit out the first ballot, Obama does not get the nomination on the first ballot and perhaps not at all. After that first vote a great many pledged delegates and all the super delegates are free to vote as they choose.

How much pressure could there then be for the forty-seven year old Obama to take the VP spot under Hillary, with the understanding that he would as such be the next Democrat in line for the top nomination whether Hillary won or lost, served one, two or no terms?

It looks like Obama's belief in his inevitability may have led him into a blunder, making it easier for Hillary supporters to prevent a nomination on the first ballot. After that point, anything goes, as all super delegates and many pledged delegates are free to vote their preferences.

After accepting the party's decision last June to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida but with half votes, only days ago Obama said he wanted the delegates to have full votes

Obviously, he said this believing he has won the nomination and that pandering to voters in critical general election states is of more importance.

If the party goes along with Obama's request, it reduces the number of super delegates who would need to sit out the first ballot for Obama to be denied the nomination, opening the way for Clinton! Ouch!

This is proof that the man should not be negotiating with Ahmadinejad. If he cannot think strategically and recognize his vulnerability to a last minute ambush at the convention, he would be eaten alive in big league world affairs.

Worst of all, in his letter to the Credentials Committee arguing in favor of full votes for the two delegations, he writes:

Democrats in Florida and Michigan must know that they are full partners and colleagues in our historic mission to reshape Washington and lead our country in a new direction.

These words tacitly argue for acceptance of the popular vote results in those states. Obama cannot see one step ahead, for adding them to the vote count would give the Democratic primary season popular vote majority to Hillary.

There are about three weeks to the delegate voting. Things can still happen or even, as sometimes suspected with the Clintons, be made to happen.

[AmericaUnited]

if a hundred and twenty or so super delegates to sit out the first ballot, Obama does not get the nomination on the first ballot and perhaps not at all. After that first vote a great many pledged delegates and all the super delegates are free to vote as they choose.

Folks! That's a very small amount...

[igoramus08]

Hillarys only hope is if the Michelle whitey tape exists and she leaks it one week before the convention.

[gridlock]

How many points down does Obama have to be in the polls for the Superdelegates to decide they want a real vote at the Convention? At the end of the day, they want to win.

A glorious loss is still a loss. Obama cannot beat McCain.

[wafflehouse]

LOL

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

“finally wondering if maybe that scumbag Obama was born overseas and is NOT a natural born citizen”

The fake birth certificate reports could be something the Clintons have been up to. Maybe they threw out a few hints, not wanting their own fingerprints on it. I hope Techdude holds off until after the convention. FRegards ....

[rbg81]

She will not win, but I have postulated that Hillary could be behind BO’s small (or less) lead in the polls. She could tell her supporters to answer John McCain when polled. If BO shows enough weakness, he will be forced to take her on as his VP pick. After that, his days are numbered.

[AmericaUnited]

Maybe they threw out a few hints, not wanting their own fingerprints on it

Haha. The latest on the TexasDarling site has a "guest" who recommends the following:

"It may be that the best challenge will come from a totally “red” state, where Obama has no chance… a red state SOS challenging Obama’s eligibility under the Constitution—would make news and problems for Obama."

Trying to put GOP fingerprints on it.

[AmericaUnited]

She could tell her supporters to answer John McCain when polled.

No need for the grand conspiracy stuff, they really do hate the Empty Suit.

[calex59]

The fake birth certificate reports could be something the Clintons have been up to. Maybe they threw out a few hints, not wanting their own fingerprints on it. I hope Techdude holds off until after the convention. FRegards ....

Actually techdude has already released the info on whose birth certificate was used as a blank to forge Obamaosama's COLB. He is preparing a full report but the documents he released already clearly show Obamaosama's COLB to be fake. For a clear look, go to the texasdarling web site and check out the documents.

I think Hillary and Bill are behind this examination since Texasdarling is clearly a Hillary site. I think you are correct in that they(Hill and Bill) don't want to appear as having been the ones who searched for and found the fake doc.

What I want to know is this: Why did McCain have to prove his eligibility, even when it is clear that under the constitution he is a natural born citizen, but Obama, whose citizenship is murky at best, doesn't have to produce his original COLB. That alone(not producing the real COLB)screams that there is something very wrong with his birth in regards to his eligibility for office of President, IMO.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Regarding the double standard of McCain and OB with citizenship, most of the drive-by media wants to make OB a Soveit-style kamazar [for starters] the way they did the Clintons up until OB kicked Hellery’s tail in the primary. There’s a power struggle between the Clintonista and the OB camp, which might be making you confused.

If OB is taken out, there will be a shift to cover the next rat leader’s tail.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

I almost forgot to thank you, Calex, for the in-depth knowledge about the fake birth certificate. Yep, it’s the Clintons. They are biding their time and have as much as possible triggered by people outside their circle. I would not be surprised if Techdude is actually a patriot. [The poor guy might need to change his web-name.] This is going to get even stranger. I’m glad we have truckloads of knowledge about Hillary, her brothers, and her husband. We must keep our powder dry.

FRegards ....

[Ann Archy]

The Clinton’s PRIVATE INVESTIGATORS have been digging deep, and I do also think his birth certificate could be the key to Hillary’s comeback.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

The Comeback Witch.

[Drumbo]

If this was a set-up from the start...

Link: Sen. Obama Wants Florida, Michigan Delegates To Have Full Voting Rights

Link: Sen. Hillary Clinton Seeks Democratic Convention Voice

Don't underestimate the bait & switch tactics of the democrats. If this was a set-up from the start, Hill and Barry could turn Denver into a real love-fest. In my nightmares, Hillary steps forward to take her destiny, Obama admits he's inexperienced with only 120 days in the Senate (while spiraling in the polls) and the press will eat it up. Obamie becomes Mrs. Clinton’s VP running mate and heir apparent to the future (sixteen years of sustained democratic reign in the White House).

Stranger things have happened in the Dem-zone – especially when the Clintons stir the pot and it's really the only way the democrats can possibly heal the current party rifts. Think about it. Barack is not going to win this race the way he's going now. This time last election cycle John Kerry was almost 20 polling points ahead of Dubya and he still lost. By the most optimistic poll, Obama is 7 points ahead and most have a statistical tie and some even favor McCain. The loyal Hillary folks (PartyUnityMyA--) are on the warpath and planning to march on Denver demanding Hillary be nominated. “COUNT THE VOTES” is their battle cry. At this late date Hillary hasn’t released a single delegate, and you have to wonder why Obama is suddenly calling for the Michigan and Florida delegates to be counted – and not just the remaining delegates after the democratic party penalties, but ALL OF THEM. That would put Hillary’s delegate count so close to his that just a few super-delegates could put her in the lead. But, if Hillary snags the nomination away from the "chosen one" and snubs him, many say there would be civil disobedience to make the Rodney King riots look like a Saturday night in Podunk and they would take PUMA to a new level.

But, if this was a set-up from the start... was it to keep the heat and scrutiny off of Hillary these last couple of months while she’s been resting up and scheming. Wolfson moved from Hillary's handler to Obama's without a glitch or much notice - is he the liberal Carl Rove, charged with shepherding in the Clinton/Obama dream ticket? Obama took the slings and arrows, the media “scrutiny” and "kept hope alive" and now he will be rewarded with the VP slot in the Clinton administration and a real shot at White House in the future. Everyone who thinks about it says hey, that’s just crazy enough to work.

You have to wonder what the Clintons are up to. Just days ago (August 4th) Bill Clinton, who on July 18th said he “was ready to campaign for Obama,” passed up a perfect opportunity to endorse him, asking: “Is anyone ready on day one to be president?” … and cryptically added, “You can argue that even if you've been vice president for eight years, that no one can be fully ready for the pressures of the office." Huh? You could, I suppose, but are we talking about Al Gore or Dick Cheney here Bill? The question was - is Obama ready? In classic Clinton style, he answered the question with questions of his own and perhaps revealed the only scenario that makes any sense and fits all the mounting evidence. Is Barry asking whether a guaranteed VP slot now and coattails into the presidency in eight years is better than a crap-shoot in 2008 and a possible crash & burn without the Clinton “Machine”? You betcha he’s smart enough to have bought into this. Was this the Clinton backup plan all along or have I been drinking the Kool-aide too long?

If Barry goes to his "base" with one of his scripted teleprompter coup de grace “Berlin” messiah-moments in Denver and says he's happy to stand aside - no, "Stand UNITED" - and learn at the master's knee, I suspect the only riots would be across-the-board jubilation by the democrats and a chorus of Kum-bah-yah from the main stream media. Talk about a juggernaut! The talking heads would need to add a few hours to the 24-hour news cycle if it plays out like that. It would turn things upside down and we'd have a whole new ballgame 'lil buckaroos.

Just my 2¢

[MortMan]

I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

[AmericaUnited]

I was being facetious...

[AmericaUnited]

You whole scenario is absurd. Barry can’t admit he’s not ready to be POTRUS and then claim to be qualified to be “one heartbeat away” as VP.

[AmericaUnited]

POTRUS = President Of The Red United States. :)

[MortMan]

I know you were being facetious. I was quoting the next line in the movie. ;-P

[LS]

Agreed. The one thing the Dems will NOT do this year is “un-nominate” the Messiah, no matter how bad it looks for them. The fools hitched their wagon to this lame horse, and have to ride it now all the way to the end, or face completely destroying the party. Come to think of it . . .