Posted on 08/04/2008 7:07:17 PM PDT by tcrlaf
A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.
The margin between the candidates is statistically insignificant, but demonstrates a notable turn-around from the Reuters/Zogby poll of July 7-9 that showed Obama ahead, 46%-36% in a four-way match-up that included Libertarian candidate Bob Barr of Georgia and liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader.
McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups. For example: McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%. Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin. Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents.
He and McCain are now tied. Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%. Obama’s support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%. Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
= a CINO - a sign o' disobedience.
They are lowering Obama’s polls now because after the Democrat Convention they want to give him a 20 point jump.
Duk won by 2%, and the "Bradley Effect" was coined. Supposedly, it is that voters lie to pollsters because they are afraid of being labeled racists, but when they get in the voting booth, they vote for the "white" guy.
Personally, Tom Bradley was such a bad candidate (and mayor) that I doubt the "Bradley Effect" and put it down to disgruntled liberals blaming "racist white guys" for THEIR loss.
I wouldn’t dismiss it. Dinkins’ 1989 race for NYC mayor (against Rudy), and Wilder’s also 1989 run for VA governor showed signs of it.
Dinkins had a double digit lead into election day and beat Rudy by just 2%. Wilder had similar circumstances.
Some slippage?
That 9% is hanging out below Obama's skirt.
The Wilder effect maybe an outdated effect today. America is much more tolerant now. In 2006, Harold Ford Jr. portrayed himself as a post-racial candidate much like Obama. Heck, Junior even claimed to be a pro-life evangelical. The polls showed a close Senate in TN. The polls were largely right in the Corker vs Ford Senate race.
That's awesome--and apt.
Obama's whiny "That's racist!" thing is so old, and he seems to have backed into it and can't get out. He was doing well when he seemed (note--SEEMED) above race. But he just couldn't resist, it was just sitting there, SOOOOO easy...and he couldn't not start whining about "THEY will point out oh by the way, he's black!" when NO ONE brought it up. But he saw a way to put away McCain, because look at how much everyone LOVED him (Obama), they'd listen if he tried to call out the evil dragon racism...
Now, I think, people are listening to his sweet nothings and thinking "I dunno, can I stand to listen to this fluff for four years?"
Too soon to tell if she'll vote McCain, but her uneasiness with BHO is striking. She has drifted away from some of her more egregious New Age practices of late and has shown herself capable of critical thought.
Anecdote, not data, but when you begin to see a preponderance of anecdote, it may be time to recheck the data.
In the voting booth those remaining hanger-ons will have to ask themselves: Am I really going to vote for a Marxist, pacifist, appeaser, flip-flopper, self-aggrandizer, reparationist, false messiah?
Yeah but that’s ignoring this very last primary cycle which had some strage results.
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