Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Misouri, and Virginia ALL have recent polls out that show McCain ahead. If he can keep them all, he wins. Period.
Not true.
I believe McCain will carry all of these states, but consider this: under this same scenario, Obama carries Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Oregon. He also carries either one or both of New Hampshire and New Mexico (this is extremely likely.)
So in other words, the country votes in exactly the way we would expect...
except for one exception:
Obama pick Evan Bayh as his running mate, who along with Gary, IN mayor Rudy Clay stuffing ballot boxes Chicago-style as he did during the primary, deliver Indiana — a state currently in a dead heat — to Obama.
The result:
Obama 270 to McCain 268.
I am increasingly convinced this is the state to watch for, not Virginia, Ohio, or Florida.
Disagree strongly.
Adding Bayh gets Obama close, but he is not going to win here. He has close to zero support from the rank and file Democrats in the Southern part of the state. Even adding Evan Bayh to the ticket is not going to change that enough to put him over the top.
Plus, Indiana is said to be deadlocked because of one poll. I all but guarantee you that when the next round of Indiana polls come out you will see McCain has opened up a lead here.