Posted on 08/03/2008 9:30:59 AM PDT by forkinsocket
The announcement by Israeli Prime Minister Olmert that he would not contest the leadership in his Kadima Party’s internal elections next month and would resign as soon as a new Prime Minister is in office was widely expected. But it still set off a political tumult in Israel, partly because the realistic range of options for his successor is so wide. Olmert may indeed step down as soon as mid-October but he could also end up staying in office until spring of 2009.
The transition is a gradual process. First come the internal elections within the Kadima Party. The two main candidates are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transportation Minister Sha’ul Mofaz, a former Minister of Defense and Israeli Defense Force (spell out) Chief of Staff.
Livni now seems the favorite but this could change as the internal campaign heats up.
What does Livni represent? Most say she would continue Olmert’s policies, especially with regard to peace. She has been leading the Israeli delegation to the current negotiations and both her political background and current positions are -identical. Of course this could change if she were in office, but that seems unlikely.
Olmert was seen as a weak Prime Minister but an extraordinary politician, holding his government together for two years after most had written its epitaph. Livni has shown no indication of similar skills. Even if she is chosen as Kadima’s candidate, she may face rebellion within party ranks or from its two coalition partners Shas and Labor. However, her greatest ally is fear of new general elections if Kadima cannot put together a government, since many Knesset members, especially from Kadima and its coalition party, Labor, might lose their seats if the election were held soon
Livni’s rival, Sha’ul Mofaz is on Kadima’s rightward fringe and probably would be as comfortable ideologically in Likud, whence he and Livni came. While he would be under pressure to continue negotiations, especially from the US, his heart probably would not be in it. It is difficult to imagine him announcing historic concessions, even more difficult to imagine him implementing them.
Any attempt to put together a government in this way would most likely take place by the end of October, after the Jewish holidays. If no government is formed by then new general elections for the whole country would be scheduled, probably for February or March 2009, shortly after the new US administration is in place but probably before it would be ready to deal with the complexities of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Ironically, according to Israeli law, Olmert will remain as caretaker Prime Minister until his successor is chosen and the new government sworn in, whether with or without general elections.
Until recently, the assumption was that, if general elections were held, former Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu of the rightwing Likud party would be a shoo-in, which is why he wants them soon and Kadima doesn’t. However, a new poll has startled Israel’s politicians by indicating that, if these elections were held, Livni might beat Netanyahu. It also shows her to be an appreciably stronger candidate than her Kadima rival, Mofaz.
What does this mean for the already ailing Annapolis peace process? Can it produce a peace settlement by the end of the year, as President Bush clearly desires?
A weakened Israeli government would be even less likely to be able to make peace, though Livni would certainly try, as will Olmert, for as long as he is caretaker Prime Minister. However, should there in fact be new elections next year (that is, if Kadima cannot avoid them), and if Netanyahu and the Israeli right were to form a government, chances of any peace settlement in the foreseeable future would drop dramatically. Such a government would be unlikely to engage in negotiations, would be liable to retake Gaza (most likely with high Israeli and Palestinian casualties) and assume a more belligerent pose toward Iran. It would probably be extremely suspicious of any relations with the Palestinian Authority and wary of any peace initiatives emanating from the United States.
Thus, in the short run, there is a hope, though not a strong one, of some sort of agreement if Kadima stays in power. In the longer run, it depends on who wins the next Israeli elections, whenever they are held.
If it isn’t already a done deal, and Netanyhu is elected, I don’t see him giving up the Golan. I think that’s why Ohlmert was so despised; he was seen as giving strategic parts of Israel away to her enemies, in the hope that by doing so, they’d say they’d leave Israel alone and he could say that there was peace. There’s no peace, if there’s no security.
they will have to give up the Golan.
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