Posted on 08/03/2008 9:30:59 AM PDT by forkinsocket
The announcement by Israeli Prime Minister Olmert that he would not contest the leadership in his Kadima Party’s internal elections next month and would resign as soon as a new Prime Minister is in office was widely expected. But it still set off a political tumult in Israel, partly because the realistic range of options for his successor is so wide. Olmert may indeed step down as soon as mid-October but he could also end up staying in office until spring of 2009.
The transition is a gradual process. First come the internal elections within the Kadima Party. The two main candidates are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transportation Minister Sha’ul Mofaz, a former Minister of Defense and Israeli Defense Force (spell out) Chief of Staff.
Livni now seems the favorite but this could change as the internal campaign heats up.
What does Livni represent? Most say she would continue Olmert’s policies, especially with regard to peace. She has been leading the Israeli delegation to the current negotiations and both her political background and current positions are -identical. Of course this could change if she were in office, but that seems unlikely.
Olmert was seen as a weak Prime Minister but an extraordinary politician, holding his government together for two years after most had written its epitaph. Livni has shown no indication of similar skills. Even if she is chosen as Kadima’s candidate, she may face rebellion within party ranks or from its two coalition partners Shas and Labor. However, her greatest ally is fear of new general elections if Kadima cannot put together a government, since many Knesset members, especially from Kadima and its coalition party, Labor, might lose their seats if the election were held soon
Livni’s rival, Sha’ul Mofaz is on Kadima’s rightward fringe and probably would be as comfortable ideologically in Likud, whence he and Livni came. While he would be under pressure to continue negotiations, especially from the US, his heart probably would not be in it. It is difficult to imagine him announcing historic concessions, even more difficult to imagine him implementing them.
Any attempt to put together a government in this way would most likely take place by the end of October, after the Jewish holidays. If no government is formed by then new general elections for the whole country would be scheduled, probably for February or March 2009, shortly after the new US administration is in place but probably before it would be ready to deal with the complexities of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Ironically, according to Israeli law, Olmert will remain as caretaker Prime Minister until his successor is chosen and the new government sworn in, whether with or without general elections.
Until recently, the assumption was that, if general elections were held, former Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu of the rightwing Likud party would be a shoo-in, which is why he wants them soon and Kadima doesn’t. However, a new poll has startled Israel’s politicians by indicating that, if these elections were held, Livni might beat Netanyahu. It also shows her to be an appreciably stronger candidate than her Kadima rival, Mofaz.
What does this mean for the already ailing Annapolis peace process? Can it produce a peace settlement by the end of the year, as President Bush clearly desires?
A weakened Israeli government would be even less likely to be able to make peace, though Livni would certainly try, as will Olmert, for as long as he is caretaker Prime Minister. However, should there in fact be new elections next year (that is, if Kadima cannot avoid them), and if Netanyahu and the Israeli right were to form a government, chances of any peace settlement in the foreseeable future would drop dramatically. Such a government would be unlikely to engage in negotiations, would be liable to retake Gaza (most likely with high Israeli and Palestinian casualties) and assume a more belligerent pose toward Iran. It would probably be extremely suspicious of any relations with the Palestinian Authority and wary of any peace initiatives emanating from the United States.
Thus, in the short run, there is a hope, though not a strong one, of some sort of agreement if Kadima stays in power. In the longer run, it depends on who wins the next Israeli elections, whenever they are held.
Where does that leave peace? What peace is my question? Israel is taking it in the shorts and it has never stopped, there is no frickin’ peace and there will be none until every so called palistinian is taking a dirt nap or so many of them die they figure out it is not worth the price to fight Israel any longer. The only way the middle east will ever have peace is if the muslim religion(cult) is wiped off the face of the earth.
Israeli is at "peace" now. Because its enemies do not dare attack it. Give up the Golan or other lands, and then you'll see an end to peace.
Yes! Yes! Yes!
Growing out of the barrel of Israeli guns, where it always has been.
Why do Jewish publications root for suicide?
After VICTORY!
Tzippi was just on CNN. She is a tough cookie and probably Israel’s next PM. She will win a peace treaty with Syria.
But are they stupid or what?
They are going to be weak and take no real decisions for several month when it would be very important about IRAN...
There will be no real leader in the boat!
Let's hope it doesn't include Israel giving up any more territory.
Unfortunatly they will have to return the Golan.
“Israel’s Prime Minister is Going; Where Does That Leave Peace?”
Where is Ariel Sharon?
Where Does That Leave Peace?
Peace is in the hands of the Arabs.
“Israel’s Prime Minister is Going; Where Does That Leave Peace?”
Hopefully in the hands of the warden. The inmates ran the asylum long enough.
“In a persistent vegetative state.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illnesses_of_Ariel_Sharon";
Thank you.
High Volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel. or WOT [War on Terror]
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Same place it's been since the mid 90s, something worth discussing a couple decades after they stop educating their children that their highest calling is killing Jews. And since the US and Euros are happy to provide funding for their media irrespective of the content, I don't see anything changeing soon.
Why?
Because it will be a condition for the peace treaty with Syria just as the Sainai was for peace with Egypt. Assad would be murdered immediately otherwise.
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