Economic models predict clear Obama win in November [ McCain 47.8 percent, Obama 52.2 percent...]

Reuters ^

[Sub-Driver]

models smodels...........

[LowTaxesEqualProsperity]

If I recall correctly, this model always predicts Democrats will win.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Reuters.

They report, they decide.

[Blue Turtle]

Well, its all over then...guess I don’t have to vote now.

[Y2Bogus]

Oh, in that case, we don’t need an election, we have a “study”.

[Publius6961]

Idiots can fuss with models.
The only model that matters to me is the Ballot Box.

See you in November!

[Bringbackthedraft]

Its the Reuters wish list again.

[dangus]

I guess she really IS Obama's economic advisor.

[TexasCajun]

based on false gloomy economic estimates

There, more better.

[roses of sharon]

[jveritas]

Reverse the results of this prediction.

[dangus]

I recall that the economic model most heavily pushed by the media in 2000 predicted a landslide of historic proportions for Al Gore.

[dangus]

>> Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections. <<

It’s only gotten one presidential election wrong since the start of the last war (2003).

[AmericaUnited]

There are no models to predict this election cycle. NONE!

[comebacknewt]

I don’t think they always predict Democrat wins, but I remember several of them predicted Gore and Kerry to be victorious.

[Old Professer]

They said they were right 12 out of 14 times so I guess they’re starting in 1920.

Didn’t say who the two wrong ones were.

[SumProVita]

And look at THIS model: The third work is a “Bread and Peace” model devised by Douglas Hibbs, a retired economics professor from the University of Goteborg in Sweden...

Should I be a bit cynical here? ;-)

[Red Badger]

Oh, in that case, we don’t need an election, we have a “study”.................which is just as good as a “consensus” is to algore............

[FFranco]

The model doesn’t account for all of Obama’s negatives: his race, his history, his friends, his ideology, and many more.

[Sooth2222]

His model actually has a fairly good track record, but he overpredicted Bush's vote share by 3.4% in 2004.

I think this is something that everyone (well, all political junkies) have been predicting for at least the last year, and my question is -- all things considered, why is Obama doing relatively poorly in the polls? Have, as some pundits suggested, the Democrats nominated almost the only candidate who could lose in November?