Posted on 07/31/2008 6:31:36 AM PDT by Alter Kaker
The latest Quinnipiac Swing State Polls are out:
Obama will not win Florida or Ohio. Bank on it!
I notice that many of the percentages by which Obama is ‘on top’ are within the margin of error.
If Obama is only up two points in a Quinnipiac poll then, in reality, he is down. I will make another bold prediction: Obama will not win Pennsylvania. The labor/Reagan Democrats in the northeast around Scranton and Wilkes-Barre will not be turning out to vote for him.
I didn’t realize that Quinnipiac had a poll out last month that showed Obama up in Florida. I thought Rasmussen’s was the first likely voter poll to show Obama ahead in Florida.
McCain better start competing in this state. Obama has spent big bucks, something on the order of $5 million, on advertising here over the last two months while McCain spent bupkis. If McCain loses Florida it’s all over, and it sure looks like he is sat on his lead and may have lost it, at least for now.
Florida is not a state that any Republican can take for granted.
Q polls always lean to the left. Take these polls with a big does of salt.
Quinnipiac is the poll most skewed to the left, generally.
Wow if Quinnipac has it this close Mcain must be up by 5-7 points
Rush read an analysis yesterday that said that elections usually reflected about a 15% gain for the conservative/republican candidate over early polls (like this one).
If this holds, it’ll be a landslide,
then we’ll hear about what a racist country this is from the perpetually aggrieved.
If you interject Race into the Race then Race will win out!(Socrates)
I didn't need to read any farther to call BS...
The last few polls have shown Obama ahead slightly in Florida. Rasmussen has Obama up 49-47.
IMHO, the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about is the reality of what a person tells the pollster, versus what they’ll do in the privacy of the voting booth.
I think it will have a huge impact on this race. It’s cool (in some circles) to say you’re voting for Obama. Many people think it equates with the notion that they are not “racist” in the least.
But I don’t think the reason people will have second thoughts in the voting booth will have anything to do with Obama’s race, it will have to do with his experience.
I also see this as a post election problem because I think the polls may show it much closer than what the actual vote will be.
Just my 2 cents.
Quinnipiac is very accurate...just ask President Kerry and President Gore!
No way he in front in PA.
But based on their own dubious methodology Obama gets no bounce from his Napoleonic tour and in fact is losing ground to McCain.
Obama is in deep kimshi. JMHO of course.
Wrong again, they nailed it by .5% in 2006. When Rasmussen and most of the rest had several Republican seats listed as “safe” and were humiliated on election night.
Quinnipiac was the only one that accounted for the “Least Republican Generation” and the heavy turn out of younger College age Liberal activists. (Independents and swing voters.)
Expect this same phenomenon this election, only about 3 fold.
Am I just missing it somewhere? Or is there no R vs D breakdown of those polled?
Figure Barry should be way ahead these days, instead of keeping it close.
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