Take a look at the prices since pig-losi and dingy hairy took over congress in Jan 2007. Click on the "Regular Gasoline Average Prices" about 1/3 way down on the left side of the page and calculate for the past 18 months. $2.13 - $4.12 today.
Posted on 07/16/2008 5:43:59 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
Debbie Kelly and her husband, Tom, have been living the dream for years.
They've got a cozy home nestled in the Wyoming Valley, the bucolic Iowa County setting where architect Frank Lloyd Wright drew his inspiration.
Deer graze in the yard. Orioles flock to the bird feeder. When nights are clear, the Milky Way lights the sky.
It's a little slice of heaven -- save for the 45-mile commute to work.
It wasn't a big financial drain driving into Madison, even as gasoline passed $2 a gallon in 2004 or $3 last summer. But for Debbie Kelly, $4 fuel has been the tipping point.
Now, instead of driving all the way to her nursing job at the Dean Clinic on Fish Hatchery Road, Kelly will often park in Verona and ride her bicycle the rest of the way. One night a week, she camps in the back of her pickup truck at Lake Farm County Park, south of the Beltline on the shores of Lake Waubesa.
"They've got the hottest showers," said Kelly, 54, a mother of three.
Kelly admits she's thought about moving closer to the city. The time spent driving and the rising costs are beginning to wear. But she said her husband isn't budging.
"Tom will probably go with the property," she said. "I don't think he'll ever leave the valley."
Whether high fuel prices are going to affect where people in Wisconsin live remains to be seen. It's not that simple to just pick up and move, especially for those who already own a home.
Still, it's a question crossing the minds of many who chose to buy a home miles from their place of employment or school.
"It really hit me when it cost nearly $100 to fill up the truck last week," said Rich Eggleston, who lives in Fitchburg and commutes to his job downtown at the Alliance of Cities.
And there are early indications that life in the suburbs is starting to look less attractive to home buyers.
Consider the median price of homes sold in McFarland is down nearly 19 percent from a year ago, falling from $258,000 to $210,000, according to the latest figures from DaneCountyMarket.com.
In Mount Horeb, prices are down 14 percent. In Fitchburg, they're off 8 percent. In the New Glarus/Belleville/Monticello market along the Dane-Green County border, prices are down nearly 10 percent.
While real estate insiders say it's dangerous to draw conclusion from just a few months of data -- Verona, Waunakee and Sauk City, for example, have all seen prices climb in 2008 -- there seems a growing realization that gasoline prices are not going down again.
That's left some observers wondering if the drivable suburb -- the model for virtually all post-World War II development in Wisconsin and the U.S. -- has run its course.
"I think we're looking at a tremendous societal shift," said Steve Hiniker, executive director of 1,000 Friends of Wisconsin, a statewide group that advocates for better land use. "Urban areas such as Madison and Milwaukee will continue to fill in and modern transit will soon be a part of the urban setting. Suburbs will continue to lose value as gas prices hit the stratosphere."
Indeed, the future of the suburbs in the face of rising energy costs has sparked a flurry of national reports in the past months. Many have come from groups that would like nothing better than to see an end to sprawl and a reinvestment in mass transit and the urban core.
One study from Chicago-based CEOs for Cities argues that soaring gasoline prices are what really popped the nation's housing market bubble.
"The popular narrative on the collapse of housing prices has only blamed exotic lending practices," said the group's economist Joseph Cortright. "But the much more important story is about how higher gas prices have re-drawn the map of urban real estate values."
In another report, Arthur Nelson of Virginia Tech predicts the nation is facing a surplus of 22 million large lot homes (houses built on 1/6 an acre of more) by 2025. That represents roughly 40 percent of the "McMansions" in existence today, places like Bergamont, Bishop's Bay and Hawk's Landing in Dane County.
And long-time sprawl critics like James Howard Kunstler have cheered the higher fuel prices as finally bringing an end to decades of suburban madness. He said trying to find solutions to keep the "Happy Motoring" utopia running is naive.
"The truth is that no combination of solar, wind and nuclear power, ethanol, biodiesel, tar sands and used french-fry oil will allow us to power Wal-Mart, Disney World and the Interstate highway system -- or even a fraction of these things -- in the future," Kunstler said. "We have to make other arrangements."
Closer to home, not everyone shares the same doom-and-gloom scenario.
Madison Mayor Dave Cieslewicz said fuel prices haven't reached the point where Americans have been forced to make fundamental changes. Rather, he sees a more gradual shift to a balanced mix of transit, compact development, walkable communities -- and single-passenger vehicles.
"I just got back from Europe and people still love to drive but they have other options," he said. "Unfortunately we've created a physical environment in this country that makes us slaves to our cars."
Cieslewicz said those who oppose mass transit or improved rail service often argue that environmentalists want to take away the freedom to drive.
"People on the other side of this issue use scare tactics and say everyone will be forced to give up their cars," he said. "But there is actually more freedom in having the option to bike or walk somewhere without fear of getting killed."
Troy Thiel, who moved to Madison in 2003 from the Chicago area and narrowly lost a 2007 bid for a seat on the City Council, predicts the suburban housing market will weather the storm. He notes that many of the area's largest employment centers are no longer located downtown -- including Epic Systems in Verona, American Family on the far east side and Discovery Springs in Middleton.
A sales agent with First Weber West Towne, Thiel also questions whether fuel prices are having much impact at all on an already depressed real estate market. He notes that sales of homes and condos within five miles of the State Capitol were down 30 percent for the first six months of 2008 versus a 25 percent sales decline overall.
"People are choosing more efficient personal autos and will locate closer to their jobs, many of which are already in the 'burbs," said Thiel. "Rich folk are putting their SUVs in the garage. That way $4 gas looks like $3 gas and they're just fine with that."
Needless to say, those who can afford it don't feel the fuel pinch as acutely.
But rising oil prices are costing everyone plenty. The average American household will spend over $3,200 to fuel their vehicles this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than twice the cost of just five years ago.
In Dane County, drivers are now spending a combined $428 million more on gasoline than in 2004, according to professor Andy Lewis, community development specialist for University of Wisconsin Extension. That's money that could have gone to a lot of other uses, whether affordable housing or commuter rail.
Lewis noted that in 2006, when gasoline averaged $3 a gallon, households with incomes under $14,999 were already spending eight percent of their income on fuel versus three percent for households with incomes over $100,000.
"As expected, the lower income households are feeling the pinch more then wealthy households," said Lewis.
On the other hand, Alan Harvey, chairman of the town of Windsor, said Dane County enjoys the advantage of having a diverse economy -- a mix of both urban, rural and suburban development.
"Clearly, all of society is going to be looking at a period of adjustment," he said. "But I think we're pretty well-positioned since economic activity is spread throughout the county."
Harvey said the real impact is being felt in communities outside Dane County like Fall River or Pardeeville, where people have purchased homes because they got a lot more square footage for their dollar.
"Those advantages start to disappear when commuting costs get too high," said Harvey, who is skeptical about the ability of mass transit to solve the problem.
Madison Ald. Robbie Webber, who defeated Thiel in the District 5 council race, has championed higher density urban development and mass transit as the long-term solution. Despite the growth in the suburbs, she said Madison remains the engine that drives the area economy with its downtown and UW campus.
"Even lunch is easier to get to without a car in a dense area than in a suburban business park," she said.
Webber said the concern isn't so much with Middleton or Verona, two places where real estate values have been holding.
"What about Mount Horeb, Dodgeville, Lake Mills, Edgerton, Portage?" she said. "Those long commutes, with no hope of transit, are going to be pretty painful."
To that end, commercial real estate developer Terrence Wall says he realized several years ago that rising gasoline prices were going to dramatically impact Dane County. For that reason, he's pursuing mixed-use projects combining office, residential and retail at Tribeca Village in Middleton and the West End in Verona.
"I've been warning people for the last three years that demand for oil in China was going to send prices skyrocketing," said Wall, president of T. Wall Properties.
Dan Miller, a Realtor with Keller Williams who maintains the DaneCountyMarket.com Web site with colleague Shawn Kriewaldt, cautioned against drawing too many conclusions about the long-term impact of gasoline prices on the local housing market.
"For example, I just helped somebody sell a house in Madison and buy one in Mount Horeb because they work at Epic and wanted to be closer to their job," he said.
Miller said a few more months of data may help paint a clearer picture.
"I think we're on the early part of the curve right now," he said. "Most folks spend several months looking for a home before they make an offer, and once an offer is accepted, it can be another 1 to 3 months until the closing. Given the lag between the decision to buy and the actual purchase, my hunch is the data will become more telling later this fall and winter."
At this point, most commuters are just biting the bullet, trying to combine trips or share rides when possible.
Nicole Weisenberger, who drives 100 miles round-trip from Madison to her job as an occupational therapist in Beloit, has found a few ways to offset the high gas prices. One is purchasing a Pontiac Vibe, which gets over 30 mpg on the highway. The other is cutting back on doggy day care from three days to one day a week.
"To be honest with you, I think the dog has been suffering more than I have," she said.
Living in the city works for you, fine...it does NOT work for everyone. Don't be so myopic.
That was a typo - meant to say NOT inherently liberal.
This will be the situation as long as oil is a monopoly.
I agree that’s a motivating factor, and I don’t fault people for living in the suburbs. I’m faulting people who now can’t afford their current lifestyle and somehow think they’re entitled to it and that they’re better than people who have never gotten to live the lifestyle they wanted.
As for public schools, when I have kids I don’t plan on letting them anywhere near them, whether in the city or the suburbs.
Not really. If the government is going to raise taxes to pay for more crap they shouldn’t be doing, they’re going to do it anyway. More people in the city should actually slow the bleeding, because they’ll have more revenue. Also, if more conservative-minded people move in, we could replace some of the bums that are in city government.
Take a look at the prices since pig-losi and dingy hairy took over congress in Jan 2007. Click on the "Regular Gasoline Average Prices" about 1/3 way down on the left side of the page and calculate for the past 18 months. $2.13 - $4.12 today.
Then that’s fine. I’m not criticizing suburbs, I’m criticizing people who think they’re entitled to cheap gas.
let's say you pay $1375.00/month in rent on a 1 year lease. when the lease is up they would offer you another year lease at $1400.00/month or a 2 year lease for $1425.00/month.
if they tried to raise rent by hundreds of dollars, i'd just find another place. apartments are plentiful, but it makes the most sense to stay put.
If the costs and inconvenience of moving outweigh the benefits, then stay put, but don’t try to blame somebody else for putting you in that situation. A lot of people seem to think I’m criticizing living in suburbs, but I’m not. I’m criticizing people who think they have the RIGHT to live in the suburbs even if they can’t afford it anymore.
People who can't afford their lifestyles in the suburbs should move to the cities.
People in the suburbs who feel entitled to things they have not earned, should move to the cities.
And the hope is:
Also, if more conservative-minded people move in, we could replace some of the bums that are in city government.
Don't hold your breath, brother!
Why the hell would people move to the liberal city to drive to their jobs in the suburbs and exurbia?
These eco-fascists and smarxist growth fanatics are out of their minds. Businesses have been locating to suburbia and exurbia for decades. Why? Because that’s where they find productive citizens and a stable, sane work force. Families with children move away from cities because they find safety and community adhesion in towns outside liberal cities. Children are not welcome in liberal cities, and the exodus of families with children from liberal cities proves that. Seattle has more dogs than children, for Pete’s sake.
What business in its right mind wants to move to a liberal hellhole city with high taxes, high crime, crooked politicians, thieving bureaucrats, an oppressive regulatory labyrinth and crumbling infrastructure?
If that was the recipe for successful, thriving liberal cities, Detroit would be utopia.
Who would businesses hire in big cities? Some welfare bum with an IQ of a cockroach? Perhaps hire a drunk snoring in a doorway for VP of operations? Maybe hire a head-banger with three-inch diameter steel washers hanging from his tongue as community liaison?
Big, liberal cities are infested with unctuous Marxist cults that worship big brother government. And these hellholes are run by totalitarians who make it their business to steal money and wealth for themselves and rob people of their individualism and their God-given rights.
Only the insane, the destructive and simpering slaves find today’s liberal cities attractive. I’ll make an exception for the morbidly curious adventurers who locate to liberal cities to make big bucks for a few years and observe the liberal savages.
And that putrid Marxist punk Kunstler has been out in front of the fascist parade condemning individualism, self-reliance, liberty and wealth generation. He’s a one-man beer hall hate rally.
wimp....move to detroit..
Correct. She should bike the first leg and the drive the rest of the way.
I’m retired Army. A “house” was ALWAYS provided for me. Granted, for many years it was a tent, but still. At one point, I had a three bedroom condo on the Government dime for about $200 a month (that I DIDN’T get in my paycheck.) That rocked. :)
These folks either get a Housing Allowance, or there is on-post housing available...they just CHOOSE not to take it. I’ve also bunked with other military-types when we wanted to live off-post. There are ways around this stuff. I’m surprised military folk aren’t more creative.
Taking advantage of EVERY perk I earned while serving allowed me to buy my farm later in life and tell the Enviros and the Hippies to p*ss off. :)
[Any big government program to gain “energy independence” is a joke.]
How is the Gov’t getting out of the way and allowing American business to develop our natural resources a big Gov’t program?
“I’m no liberal...”
Oh, BS. Every post you have made on this thread is straight-up liberal, Marxist crap.
You have every right to live anywhere you want in this country. I will not be herded like cattle into your dirty city. I will not cram myself into a crowded bus or subway car to get to work everyday.
“Wasteful”? Typical liberal. What I pay for is mine, jerk and I’ll use it how I damn well please. My wife drives an hour to and from work. That’s where the money is but we do not want to live there. She does it to increase our quality of life.
These stories are largely made up by opponents of “sprawl” and Marxist environmentalists who want us all bunched up in cities, relying on government to get us where we need to go and limiting our travel.
You don’t have a damn clue what libertarianism is. You are just another bossy liberal, seemingly hell bent on taking all the pleasure out of life.
Have you looked at property tax rates in cities lately? Here in the Chattanooga area, it is common knowledge that if you move from the county into the city, your property tax will double. And even the county tacks on some additional sales tax above the state portion.
When I was living in Ohio, cities were allowed to, and did charge income tax. The last I heard, the income tax for the privelige of living in Parma, Ohio (home of the red traffic light) was 2.5% of ones' wages.
You would think that the economies of scales would make government services cheaper in the city, but that is more than exceeded by the greed of politicians. Just look at per-pupil spending in the schools compared to the actual graduation rate. Cleveland spends upwards of 12,000 per pupil per school year and yet has a much worse graduation rate (and much lower test scores) than many of the rural school districts that spend $7000-8000 per student per year.
I would say that the governments in large, dense cities are far less accountable than those of smaller cities, towns, and counties.
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