Florida: McCain Leads By Seven

Rasmussen Reports ^ | June 30, 2008

[Clintonfatigued]

Barack Obama isn’t making a good impression in Florida.

[Patrick1]

Already posted. Brilliantly I might add.

[montag813]

Obama is viewed favorably by 44%, reflecting a seven point decline in eight days.

Perhaps that is because Obama is a MUSLIM!

Allen-WaPo Trace Programming running 00:00:0001

[keepitreal]

I just read an article that Florida has the 2nd largest population of military retireees in the country. Another article stated:

Active duty and retired military members represent an even greater prize in Florida. Figures from the state House of Representatives indicated that almost 80,000 military personnel are stationed in the Sunshine State, along with 42,000 military spouses. Another estimate puts the number of military retirees in Florida at 180,000.

http://formerspook.blogspot.com/2008/01/can-military-voters-deliver-mccain.html

I'm sure that over 300,000 military and ex-military are going to love the current smear job being done on McCain by the Obama cabal. My bet is Obama's favorables go down even further.

[ilgipper]

If McCain can’t have a comfortable lead in FL going into the month of October, that is the point I will be worried. I think he is going be able to call a lot of former swing states fairly safe before the last weeks of the race and concentrate on shoring up the few red states that will be close...and some blue states. I worry about Virginia, since it is going towards blue these days....although his military experience will be a strong asset there.

[comebacknewt]

This race gets decided out West in Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico IMHO.

If we can hold at least Colorado and Nevada, then I think everything else will fall into place for us in the Midwest and give us a slim victory.

[proudpapa]

I guess we can scratch Crist of the short list for VP.

[Political Junkie Too]

I know it's early, but this is not good news. Obama has been shrinking McCain's lead in several states, but they still remain outside the margin of error. This is the first one where the lead is now inside the margin of error.

-PJ

[lonestar67]

It says that Obama’s lead is falling.

Its bad news for Obama.

[Republican Wildcat]

Certainly, Florida is not a state where we can roll over and play dead, but I always thought with Obama as the nominee McCain would have a bit easier time with this particular state - he appeals to the electorate more there. Plus, Florida has been a swing state, but a “leans Republican” one. It appears Ohio, and quite unfortunately, Virginia, will be ones that will be much more difficult this time around.

[bray]

Obama should have a 15 pt lead at this point with everything going his way. He should be very nervous that this old curmudgeon is staying close.

Pray for W and Our Troops

[Political Junkie Too]

Are you sure about that?

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by seven percentage points, 48% to 41%. One week earlier, it was McCain by eight. A month ago, the Republican had a ten-point lead.

Obama's favorability may be falling, but from my read, one month ago McCain's polling lead was 10 points. One week ago, McCain's lead was down 2 points. Now it is down another 1 point.

With a +-4.5% margin of error, Florida was safe when McCain was leading by 10. Now he's leading by 7, which is within the margin of error.

-PJ

[fieldmarshaldj]

"McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Florida voters... Obama is viewed favorably by 44%."

The real numbers to pay attention to.

[RED SOUTH]

Blah Blah , blah blah. These polls mean nothing because most people aren’t paying attention yet. Wait til Sept.

[lonestar67]

I think you are right in regard to the first sentence— which surprisingly/NOT— leads us to believe that McCain is really getting pounded.

The buried lead/surprise/ is that Obama is increasingly unpopular in Florida.

A seven point lead is quite large and barely inside the margin of error— that is rather large.

[Political Junkie Too]

True enough. A seven point lead a 4.5% MOE translates into a >97% likelihood of winning. It's trending the wrong way, but we'll see if Obama's unfavorables move it back in the other direction.

-PJ

[Norman Bates]

Good news!

The McCain List.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Florida voters, a figure that has not changed since the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 44%, reflecting a seven point decline in eight days. Even more dramatic is the fact that 40% of Florida voters have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama in the June 26 survey. That’s up from 29% eight days earlier before the debate over offshore drilling escalated.

[Norman Bates]

He has a 40% very unfavorable rating. Someone's paying attention.

[lonestar67]

McCain is a rather well known American political figure. Obama is not. His unfavorables are headed nowhere but up. It is a fact of American presidential campaigning.

Even though I do not much like McCain, I think Obama is a tremendous amount of hype. Being unknown allows the public to imagine him to be someone he is not— all things to all people. That process leads to inevitable attrition. The public knows McCain pretty well by comparison. The wishful thinking phase of America’s poisoned politics will not last through November.

I actually think Obama’s position is weak even now.