Posted on 06/27/2008 6:10:34 AM PDT by Eddiehaskell7
Brace Yourselves.
That’s what we need, more gloom and doom. As if the MSM don’t feed us enough.
Those who are concerned about the market can avail themselves of lots of interesting and very useful inverse and double-inverse ETFs that are quite useful.
For example, if you have a load of stocks in the SPX, you can buy SDS, pretty much a double-inverse SPX funds. If all your stocks are in the DJIA or are aligned with the DJIA, you can buy DOG, the (single) inverse DJIA fund.
Or just sit in cash. Or sell some covered calls. Or buy some puts. There ARE measures you can take. IMO, it’s somewhat late to be taking hedgin moves. Anyway, my point is, these ETFs are quite useful, especially if you don’t want to sell and trigger taxable gains/losses. There are many hundreds of them.
I can agree with all you say except getting out of Iraq now. It only would make the money we have spent for nothing and would just cost us much more later.
We are winning and we will win. It has been just 5 years. It took much longer in Germany and Japan to get things right.
Gllom and doom isn’t the answer.
Getting serious about the oil prices is the number one issue right now. Stop the outrageous manipulation by speculators and the oil will be down to $75/barrel in 30 days.
The Iraq was isn’t even on the media and political radar screens, because we are winning.
You left out the British headline that the North polar ice cap is melted and there is no ice now.
I have been in cash since 1/15 of this year.
I have an inkling we may be seeing capitulation in the Markets at this time and it will shortly be time to sneak in again.
The only card that will fall is giving Iran control of Iraqi oil and more control over oil prices. We are in a proxy war with Iran. It will most likely turn into a direct war with Iran a few years later if we let them take control.
We should TAKE the oil and not give a damn what anybody thinks. If our allies want a piece of it, that's ok. Anything to keep it out of Iran and OPEC.
I am not at all convinced the rise is even close to being all caused by speculators.. There simply is no evidence to prove it and there are as many “experts” who claim it is NOT them but supply falling short of anticipated demand that is doing this. There is also the political uncertainty that is contributing.
Where to go? I don't know. All-cash positions will lose because you'll need to find a cash account that will cover inflation. Bonds? Those can take a hit, too, during a bear market. Commodities? I guess there are funds out there that do that but you've got to have nerves of steel because when the bubble bursts you're going to see a lot of panic. All I know is I'll probably take a beating because I'll be retiring in the next 2-4 years and my portfolio will probably still be on the downside. Buy high, sell low, that's my usual luck...
I agree, and although there would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth the offer of selling the oil at a reasonable price to our "friends" would be quickly accepted.
So are you going to put your money where your mouth is and short the market?
For those who pay any attention to technical indicators, we have completed the classic bull-bear battle at the top of a secular trend up, resulting in a head and shoulders topping pattern, and prices have broken below the support level of 12,000. This suggests substantial further declines ahead.
This suggests substantial further declines ahead.
Yieks...well aren’t you just a ray of sunshine. lol. I know you are right.
Congratulations! The SPX showed a solid, solid sell signal according to the utterly classic and very easy to use 20/50 week moving average signal late January this year. It remains on a “don’t be in the market” signal, and looks not to be entering a “buy” for a considerable length of time.
For “long only” investors, this is an exceptionally treacherous market; dominated by hedge funds, with essentialy NO investing thesis lasting more than about 45 minutes!
Myself, the only lasting equity investing theses I see in the economy are coal and fertilizer. I don’t think any other segments are making money. Maybe some agriculture. Some gold.
The single most useful market timing signal:
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=39911
See it today:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy
Under CHART ATRIBUTES, change to “weekly”
Under OVERLAYS change the numbers to 20 and 50, doesn’t matter what order
Hit “update”
I was Responding to post 17.
I think the next few quarters are going to be a bit rough on earnings so expect the Dow average to slip under 10K and the NASDAQ to settle around 2000. The election may produce a bounce but short lived. Those levels would represent good buying opportunities if folks want to start dollar cost averaging investments.
What do I hold on to? I could grab this table, its pretty sturdy.
What if I have to get up? Do I walk with a wide stance as to brace myself while I’m walking?
Oh crap, whenever I get off work, I gotta go by the store to pick up my grandmother’s medicine and stop by the movie place for some videos. (We’re gonna make a homemade pizza and watch movies) Am I still going to be able to do that? Do I still need to be braced tonight? If not, when can I relax?
“For those who pay any attention to technical indicators, we have completed the classic bull-bear battle at the top of a secular trend up, resulting in a head and shoulders topping pattern, and prices have broken below the support level of 12,000. This suggests substantial further declines ahead.”
While I generally agree with you, in 2002 when I was making a bloody killing shorting the market on a nauseatingly regular basis, many many many bears got utterly gut-ripped maintaining the bear thesis for the next five years when it NEVER worked ONCE. There was an OMINOUS, horrible looking H & S pattern in place at that time as well. And it fooled anyone who believed it, into the screaming bull market of mid-2002 to 2007 which was a near double in the DJIA 72xx > 14K.
The 20/50 indicator is FAR more reliable than a simple H&S. Plus it is very slow moving, doesn’t require looking at more frequently than weekly.
Usually, the "Doom and Gloom" preachers are those who are selling short, and are trying to create a stampede panic. A reverse version of "Pump and Dump" proponents.
Well we had the typical dead cat bounce this morning. It was up about 25 points but now headed lower.
AS was advised to a young investor early in the Great Depression: “Buy American Can and sit on it.”
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.