Congratulations! The SPX showed a solid, solid sell signal according to the utterly classic and very easy to use 20/50 week moving average signal late January this year. It remains on a “don’t be in the market” signal, and looks not to be entering a “buy” for a considerable length of time.
For “long only” investors, this is an exceptionally treacherous market; dominated by hedge funds, with essentialy NO investing thesis lasting more than about 45 minutes!
Myself, the only lasting equity investing theses I see in the economy are coal and fertilizer. I don’t think any other segments are making money. Maybe some agriculture. Some gold.
The single most useful market timing signal:
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=39911
See it today:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy
Under CHART ATRIBUTES, change to “weekly”
Under OVERLAYS change the numbers to 20 and 50, doesn’t matter what order
Hit “update”
Thanks but I’m not as well versed as you suggest. I actually am a long term investor and this is the first time I bailed out. It was just a hunch, one Ive had before but never as strong.
I’m content to be in cash for the time being because the income from it and my SS along with my having zero debt allow me to live well on little income. Plus I have been a scrupulous saver since I was about 30 and through my buy a hold strategy and a lot of luck have amassed a nice nest egg. I might add I am a Mutual Funds buyer rather then individual stocks. I would as soon pay the small mgmt fee and let the experts decide what to buy and when to sell. I have enjoyed remarkable (to me) success with balanced funds such as Wellington Vanguard, Fidelity balanced and Dodge and Cox Balanced (until last year). One of them, the Wellington fund is really stable and greatly limits downside potential at least till now. Before yesterday it was down just about 2.8%.