Posted on 06/01/2008 4:10:31 PM PDT by mdittmar
The race all but over, Hillary Rodham Clinton is determining how to end her historic candidacy with her dignity intact and future secure.
It's not an academic question, since rival Barack Obama is expected to secure enough delegates this week to claim the Democratic presidential nomination. The former first lady and New York senator is said to be considering a range of options, including dropping out of the race and endorsing Obama, suspending her candidacy to be available in the outside chance he stumbles or carrying her fight to the convention.
Clinton won Puerto Rico's primary by a sizable margin Sunday, but Obama gained delegates there, pushing him closer to the 2,118 necessary to seize the nomination. The last two contests in their marathon primary — South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday — offer just 31 delegates, not enough to put Obama over the top.
The nomination rests with the superdelegates, the prominent Democrats who can vote their choice at the August convention in Denver.
Advisers to both Clinton and Obama predict the some 200 uncommitted superdelegates will move quickly this week in making their choices. Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are eager to see the party united after the epic, nearly half-year primary battle and are loath to see a protracted fight to the convention. That group includes some of Clinton's most stalwart supporters, who have reluctantly concluded that it's time to move on.
"It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee," said Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor and a national co-chairman of Clinton's campaign. "After Tuesday's contests, she needs to acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him."
The decision Saturday by the party rules committee to seat disputed delegations from Michigan and Florida at half strength extinguished the former first lady's last, slender hope of slowing Obama's march to the nomination. Clinton won both states' primaries, but their results were voided because their early primaries violated party rules. Obama's name wasn't even on the Michigan ballot.
The committee, which includes several Clinton backers, rejected her argument that the contests were legitimate and the delegations should be recognized in full. It was a tacit acknowledgment by party insiders that Obama was poised to secure the nomination and that it was time to rally around his candidacy.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has been neutral in the contest, said as much in a statement praising the decision immediately after it was announced.
"I look forward to an historic convention focused on defeating John McCain in November and putting a Democrat in the White House," Pelosi wrote.
Still, the Clinton team signaled she might consider an appeal of the Michigan decision because the committee awarded the delegates based on a complicated formula devised by the state Democratic Party that did not reflect the votes as they were cast in the disputed Jan. 15 primary.
Clinton's top delegate hunter Harold Ickes, a Rules Committee member, said Sunday the committee had "hijacked" the vote. But he stopped short of saying she would make good on the threat to push the case forward.
"She'll be consulting with people, and she'll be making a decision later on," he said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
Indeed, observers believe Clinton is simply trying to keep all options open until Obama is declared the winner, at which point she'll reassess.
"I think it's a position the campaign is taking until the primaries are over. Until then, I don't think it can be seen as anything more than posturing," said Don Fowler, a Clinton supporter and Rules Committee member who voted for the Michigan compromise.
Even if she were to press for a change to the Michigan decision, Clinton would still lack the delegates necessary to secure the nomination — a point made by Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Clinton supporter.
"I don't think we're going to fight this at the convention," Rendell said on CBS's "Face the Nation" Sunday. "Because even were we to win it, unless it's going to change enough delegates for Senator Clinton to get the nomination, then it would be a fight that would have no purpose."
Publicly, Clinton and her campaign surrogates are using the reinstatement of the Michigan and Florida delegations to renew their claim that she is leading Obama in the popular vote — a debatable point since the popular vote was never tabulated in four caucus states and she includes the rogue contests in Michigan and Florida. But they believe some uncommitted superdelegates could be persuaded by the argument, along with her long-standing contention that she would be a stronger candidate against McCain in November.
"We have what it takes to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election," Clinton said at a victory rally in Puerto Rico Sunday.
But privately, her aides have said Clinton's run is over and it's simply a matter of when it becomes formal. And after maintaining a respectful distance in the final weeks of the campaign, Obama campaign aides have begun to reach out to their counterparts on the Clinton campaign in hopes of pulling together and ameliorating hard feelings.
"You've got two very very strong candidates with a lot of committed supporters competing vigorously for a long time," Obama strategist David Axelrod said. "Of course there are strong feelings. It would be weird if it were any other way."
It’s going to be over Tuesday. Once BHO wins Montana more super delegates will commit to him giving him the victory.
However, that’s when the fun will begin.
Fun as in delegates, super or otherwise, sobering up and switching back to HRC?
We'll see. All of a sudden that superdelegate vote is a lot more valuable. In fact, it's the most valuable commodity in politics at the moment and falls to zero the moment he goes over the top. There'll be holdouts but nobody is going to want to hold out too long. Let the bribery and the blackmail begin!
Fun as in “gotterdamurung”.
it’s almost June, miss hillary.
It will be hot in Denver this August;)
It is intesting to me to see two people so close at this stage of the game, and yet find the democrats, the media and the political wonks trying to see one person win the Democrat nomination short of earning it.
Please correct me if I’m wrong but the super delegates don’t actually vote until the convention, so when super delagates “commit” to Obama it very well could be just empty talk. Haven’t delegates that “commited” to Clinton already changed to Obama? With that in mind...how could it be over tuesday unlesss Clinton quits?
I hope Obama wins on Tuesday forcing the SD into making a decision this soon. If they waiver, then you know the game is a foot. If they commit, then have to back down later, just as good.
I wish that I had thought of posting that first.;D
I agree, and I do think the Democrat party is going to be an interesting study the rest of the year.
Not a chance. He’s already said he wasn’t doing this and he would have another problem to deal with.
Looking at the left wing blogs and forums, I don’t think so.
The Clinton supporters are p.o.ed at Obama.
The Obama supporters are telling the Clinton supporters to go ahead and vote for McCain. They can win without the Clinton votes.
I hope you are right. I just can’t see the Clinton gang throwing up their hands and quitting.
I would not rule out a meeting between the ever lovely Mrs. Clinton and the ever charming Mr. McCain. Mrs. Clinton understands that residing on the bottom half of the McCain ticket is her quickest route to the oval office. McCain has always put himself before his party, and it seems to me, there is nothing he would not do to get the prize. He brags about reaching across the aisle, why not Hillary?
Zot me if you must - but here is my prediction (once again).
Facts in evidence:
1. Bill Clinton & Hilary Clinton are universally despised by the Democrats’ power base i.e. all those Dem Govs. & Congressmen who fled to Obama - a pitiful excuse for a candidate.
2. Obama will be nominated - but Hilary can point to gross misconduct and inequity in delegate distribution.
3. Hilary has no future in the Dem party as a result of 1 & 2.
Prediction:
Hilary will bolt the Dem.Party and run as an Independent - she has more support than Ross Perot or Ron Paul or Ralph Nader. Her popular vote support in the Dem primaries is huge and they will stick with her.
A three-way race between McCain, Obama and Hilary will be so close - 2000 will seem like a tea party.
Hilary will win the General Election - unless McCain has some great debates and media coverage - like that will happen!
Never happen, but if it does be sure and remind me.....;))
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