Posted on 05/26/2008 7:16:47 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 249.70 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
As I skimmed this, I quickly saw that as OH goes Oprah’s Obama, so does the whole election. Nothing has changed from 2000 and 2004 in that regard.
The big problem here is that of the non-McPain states, only NH is competitive. The rest, including NM and CO are out of range.
Picking Pawlenty for VP would not budge liberal MN at all.
Related...
http://bp1.blogger.com/_BKgDxiYVbRE/SDn0EGh69OI/AAAAAAAAAag/qVR7IwXWpsg/s400/election.jpg
I still think McCain wins in a nailbiter.
Which two states on that map do you think he flips? Ohio, by itself, is not enough any longer.
Rasmussen's recent PA poll showed Obama nudging ahead of him with 45% to 43%.
Clinton beat Obama by a 10% margin. So for Obama to be now polling ahead of McCain is an ominous indicator.
Presumptive nominee McCain won, but lost about 27% of the GOP vote in PA. McCain seems to be consistently losing 23-27% of the party vote -- after he has been annointed the party nominee. And he has seldom attained even near 50% of the conservative vote.
The GOP, RNC and Team McCain may continue to float down the Denial River, but McCain is in trouble for November. And if the economy continues to worse with even higher gas prices, inflated grocery prices and skyrocketing utility bills, the GOP may be looking at substantial loses, come November.
McCain-Obama?
McCain 308
The vote to permanently ban Affirmative Action in MI passed with 57%.
Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan are all in play. In Trade is not particularly impressive except determining the common wisdom this far out. Rassmussan’s polls tell us more.
Most polls do show McCain ahead in Ohio against Obama. So, I'm not sure this too accurate.
In 2004 Ohio was expected to go blue, even by Zogby. Still - the letter linked below is, I feel, a perfect example of how many in Ohio feel. It will not matter who the Democrat nominee is or what their affiliations may be; it only matters that things are out of control for the average citizen and things must change by electing a Democrat for president.
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 7-Jan | 238.92 | 18.38% |
| 14-Jan | 233.01 | 13.58% |
| 21-Jan | 232.51 | 13.29% |
| 28-Jan | 234.30 | 14.29% |
| 4-Feb | 233.98 | 13.61% |
| 11-Feb | 235.06 | 14.66% |
| 18-Feb | 228.21 | 11.99% |
| 25-Feb | 231.36 | 13.89% |
| 3-Mar | 232.14 | 13.87% |
| 10-Mar | 237.81 | 20.44% |
| 17-Mar | 242.21 | 22.51% |
| 24-Mar | 247.55 | 26.65% |
| 31-Mar | 250.09 | 29.46% |
| 7-Apr | 246.92 | 26.31% |
| 14-Apr | 247.11 | 25.87% |
| 21-Apr | 245.73 | 23.92% |
| 28-Apr | 249.77 | 26.54% |
| 5-May | 248.71 | 25.72% |
| 12-May | 250.18 | 27.43% |
| 19-May | 246.66 | 23.60% |
| 26-May | 247.88 | 25.45% |
-PJ
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