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A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports
Energy Bulletin ^ | January 8, 2008 | Jeffrey J. Brown and Samuel Foucher

Posted on 05/21/2008 7:39:16 PM PDT by B-Chan

A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters

By Jeffrey J. Brown and Samuel Foucher

There is increasing concern worldwide about global oil supplies, especially in the context of a global oil production peak. However, what really matters to oil importing countries is world net oil export capacity, and we are deeply concerned that the top five net oil exporting countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE (United Arab Emirates), collectively accounting for about half of current world net oil exports, in aggregate are going to show an ongoing decline in net oil exports, continuing an aggregate net export decline that began in 2006.

[ ... ]

Our simple mathematical model and recent case histories have shown that once oil production in an oil exporting country starts declining, the resulting decline in net oil exports can be quite rapid, and the oil exporter tends to show an accelerating net export decline rate.

We have used some additional mathematical methods to forecast future production and consumption for key oil exporting countries.

Our middle case forecast is that the top five net oil exporting countries, accounting for about half of world net oil exports, will approach zero net oil exports around 2031—going from peak net exports to zero in about 26 years, versus seven years and eight years respectively for the UK and Indonesia. In our opinion, the only real difference between the top five and the UK and Indonesia is that the top five net exporters in 2005 had a lower rate of consumption relative to production.

Extrapolating from year to date 2007 data, it appears likely that the top five will show an average aggregate net export decline of about one mbpd per year in both 2006 and 2007, putting them on track to go from about 23 mbpd in net exports in 2005 to close to zero in the 2030 time frame...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: economy; energy; energyprices; exports; oil; transport
This is an excerpt. Complete article at link.

Key observation:

Extrapolating from year to date 2007 data, it appears likely that the top five will show an average aggregate net export decline of about one mbpd per year in both 2006 and 2007, putting them on track to go from about 23 mbpd in net exports in 2005 to close to zero in the 2030 time frame.

Smaller oil exporters like Angola can and will increase their net exports, but smaller exporters, just like smaller oil fields, tend to have sharper production peaks and more rapid net export declines than do the larger net exporters. And offsetting many of the gains by some smaller exporters will be sharp declines in net exports from other smaller exporters like Mexico, the #2 source of imported crude oil into the US, which will probably approach zero net oil exports by 2014.

Declining net oil exports will inevitably result, absent a severe decline in demand in importing countries, in continued rapid increases in oil prices, as oil importing countries furiously bid against each other for declining oil exports.

In simplest terms, we are concerned that the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy—net oil export capacity—is draining away in front of our very eyes, and we believe that it is imperative that major oil importing countries like the United States launch an emergency Electrification of Transportation program--electric light rail and streetcars--combined with a crash wind power program.

As Alan Drake has pointed out, the United States--with roughly 1/3rd its current population, 1/25th of its current inflation adjusted GDP and with primitive Technology --built subways in its largest cities and streetcars in 500 cities, towns and villages in just 20 years (1897-1916), which does not even take into account numerous interurban systems.

If we could do it in 1908 with mules, manual labor and with minimal fossil fuel input, why can't we do it 2008?


1 posted on 05/21/2008 7:39:17 PM PDT by B-Chan
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To: B-Chan

What happens to Wahhabism when it’s source of cash is strangled? Will this lead to a decline in the export of radical islam from Saudi Arabia?


2 posted on 05/21/2008 7:47:54 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

I doubt it, and in fact because of the long time neglect of reinvesting in its future economy Wahhabism and other forms of radical islam will more than likely expand as they illegally immigrate and immigrate to wealthier nations.


3 posted on 05/21/2008 7:52:01 PM PDT by aft_lizard (born conservative...I chose to be a republican)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom
"What happens to Wahhabism when it’s source of cash is strangled? Will this lead to a decline in the export of radical islam from Saudi Arabia?"

We could get the decline n the export of radical islam started by lifting the ban on drilling for oil domestically - this includes the continental shelf and ANWR!

4 posted on 05/21/2008 7:59:24 PM PDT by balls
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To: ProtectOurFreedom
Not remotely. Radical Islam has been Arabia's leading export for 1400 years, for 1250 of which nobody gave a darn about this "oil" stuff. Present economic relations are a fly of summer. Civilizations aren't.
5 posted on 05/21/2008 8:16:58 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: B-Chan

Does anyone think this decline has something to do with the nationalization of the oil companies in many countries?

The higher the price goes up, the more likely it is for a government to want to take over the company.

Also the more likely that the oil company that had invested in the venture will have to recover their loses through higher prices.


6 posted on 05/21/2008 8:58:56 PM PDT by dila813
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To: dila813

I think that is certainly a contributing factor. Governments typically underinvest in their infrastructure and do not conduct the long-term R&D needed to extract oil from depleted fields. Governments tend to want to extract as much cash as possible quickly rather than make investments for the long haul. And recovery is much more difficult when a field is depleted.


7 posted on 05/22/2008 5:59:47 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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