An Unconventional 2008 Election Season

Primetime Politics ^ | May 17, 2008 | Michael Barone

[Nony]

What makes this presidential election different from all other presidential elections? And different from what we expected when the year began?

First, neither party’s presumptive nominee was chosen by massive support from primary voters, as John Kerry was in 2004, George W. Bush in 2000 or Bill Clinton in 1992.

That may not seem obvious in the case of John McCain, who effectively clinched the Republican nomination on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. But look at the numbers: In January, McCain won New Hampshire 37 percent to 32 percent, South Carolina 33 to 30 percent and Florida 36 to 31 percent. On Super Tuesday, he won more than 50 percent only in states that were essentially uncontested: Connecticut, New York and New Jersey. He won Missouri by only 33 percent to 32 percent and California by only 42 percent to 35 percent, but won big delegate margins because of Republicans’ winner-take-all rules.

McCain’s strategy from July 2007 was to count on the other Republican candidates’ strategies to fail. That was risky. But it worked. Republicans have accepted his victory because they’re temperamentally inclined to fall in line and because it became obvious that he was the candidate with the best chance to win in the fall. But McCain was not really a consensus choice.

[Theodore R.]

It’s not all that unconventional. The people just pick, liberal, liberal, and more liberal for their choices.

[Bean Counter]

[LS]

Well, if that's true, then you have to conclude that that is the people's choice, and that conservatism is not. It's pretty hard to make an argument that America is "fundamentally a conservative country" when you see the nominees---even those engaged in the primaries before these two were chosen. The conservatives who got any real support were zero. Thompson came closest with perhaps 8-9%.

A reasonable conclusion is that the U.S., as it has done many times in the past, is undergoing a shift and realignment of the parties; that it will take a while for the conservative Dems to leave the party and for the RINOs to move to the Dems; and that (as Strauss and Howe discuss in their book, "Generations") we just might be in one of those liberal cycles. It does come back around, however, but only after a generation.

[goldstategop]

John McCain was not the choice of the party's conservative base. And they haven't exactly fallen in love with him.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Don Corleone]

This may be the largest turnout in history, or the smallest. Time will tell. In any case a socialist or nuevo socialist will be elected. Damn!

[neverdem]

But look at the numbers: In January, McCain won New Hampshire 37 percent to 32 percent, South Carolina 33 to 30 percent and Florida 36 to 31 percent. On Super Tuesday, he won more than 50 percent only in states that were essentially uncontested: Connecticut, New York and New Jersey. He won Missouri by only 33 percent to 32 percent and California by only 42 percent to 35 percent, but won big delegate margins because of Republicans’ winner-take-all rules.

Those numbers should be an eye opener. The GOP needs to have the parties in those states, except NY, close their primaries, i.e. only registered GOP can vote like in NY, and no same day registration.

[neverdem]

Well, if that's true, then you have to conclude that that is the people's choice, and that conservatism is not. It's pretty hard to make an argument that America is "fundamentally a conservative country" when you see the nominees---even those engaged in the primaries before these two were chosen. The conservatives who got any real support were zero. Thompson came closest with perhaps 8-9%.

I disagree. This is the most atypical election in my life. I wouldn't rush to draw conclusions. Thompson bailed out before super Tuesday, so I voted for Romney in NY. An earlier Jed Babbin article reported how independent and crossover voters gave McCain his margin of victory in the early contests. The conservative voters split their vote between Thompson, Huckabee, Hunter, Tancredo, Keyes and Romney.

In exit polls, 47 percent of voters described their views as moderate, 21 percent liberal and 32 percent conservative.(2006)

A reasonable conclusion is that the U.S., as it has done many times in the past, is undergoing a shift and realignment of the parties; that it will take a while for the conservative Dems to leave the party and for the RINOs to move to the Dems;...

That realignment is overdue. Small 'l' liberarians should come our way too, if we can get back to a limited gub'mint philosophy and common sense conservatism. Defending traditional marriage is common sense conservatism. There are four or five states with referenda this November against reverse discrimination.

[AuntB]

People believe the soundbites and have no idea what they’re voting for.

McCain Supporters Farthest Off the Mark

WASHINGTON (March 31, 2007) – A new poll using neutral language finds that primary and caucus voters have little knowledge of candidates’ immigration positions. The results also show that voters often do not share their candidate’s position.

Among the findings: * Only 34 percent of McCain voters, 42 percent of Clinton voters, and 52 percent of Obama voters correctly identified their candidate as favoring eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants who meet certain requirements.
* Of McCain voters, 35 percent mistakenly thought he favored enforcement that would cause illegals to return home, another 10 percent thought he wanted mass deportations, and 21 percent didn’t know his position.
* Voters often held different positions from the candidate they supported. Only 31 percent of McCain voters had the same immigration position as he does. For Clinton voters, 45 percent shared her position; 61 percent of Obama voters shared his position.
* This lack of knowledge, coupled with disagreements with their candidates’ positions, makes it very difficult to draw any conclusions about the fact that all three remaining candidates favor legalization for illegal immigrants.
For results and tables, go to http://www.cis.org/articles/2008/voter_release_08.html

[Sybeck1]

I believe McCain and Huckabee were in collusion all along. Huckabee was out there spouting the “Fair Tax” to all comers, peeling people away from Fred and Mitt. Now he wants to be Mc’s VP and he will never speak about the “Fair Tax” again.

[MNJohnnie]

Strauss and Howe discuss in their book, "Generations

Of course the fact that both authors are big Leftiest might have more to do with their conclusions then any serious consideration of the data. Another way to consider the data is the Country is enormously angry at the existing political class to do anything at all about anything. This "swing to the Left" is likely have a shorter life span then a mayfly. Look at the current Energy Policy being pushed by the Left. New Democrat plan same as the old Democrat plan. Same dogma they have screamed since the 1970s. So once the Junk Media no longer have Bush to fraudulent blame for their political godlets disastrous policies decisions, this love affair with the Left the American people are currently having is going to vanish

[Cacique]

btt

[CottonBall]

Republicans have accepted his victory because they’re temperamentally inclined to fall in line

Obviously written by a lib. No, it's the libs that do as they are told without thinking. Looking at any conservative forum, it's easy to tell that conservatives think for themselves and are NOT backing McCain one bit. (Of course, by the term 'Republicans' he may be referring to RINOs only, since that's how we're seen since our last president and the current nominee are ones.)

[CottonBall]

It does come back around, however, but only after a generation.

However, it took the Republicans a lot less time to lose everything they had gained when conservatism became 'in'. By becoming liberals themselves, IMO.

[LS]

There is no question their theory has problems; but there is also no question we go through cycles, and there is likely something generational to it.

Yes, the GOP "ascendancy" didn't last long, and I agree, because of communications, the leftie ascendancy will last even a shorter period.

But when you say "the country is angry," it is GENERICALLY dissatisfied (i.e., vote whoever is in, out) but not specifically angry enough to put the pieces together where certain policies=certain problems (like no drilling=no gas). I think we have a ways to go before that specificity is added.

If you look at the big, revolutionary episodes in U.S. history, they always required a specific point of combustion: the Tea Act, Lincoln's election, the Stock Market Crash/banking collapse. Right now, about the only thing specifically I can see that will cause the public to make a choice between ideologies is if SS suddenly couldn't pay the checks to a big group of retirees without raising massive taxes.

[LS]

BTW, the problem with that exit poll is that liberals almost always refer to themselves as “moderates.” Conservatives never do. So it’s almost certainly 33/33/33 in final makeup.

[okie01]

The conservative voters split their vote between Thompson, Huckabee, Hunter, Tancredo, Keyes and Romney.

Playing "What if..."

For example, what if Fred Thompson had campaigned from the get-go in Iowa?

If Thompson had won Iowa, rather than Huckabee, we'd be looking at a whole 'nother outcome.

[okie01]

Yes, the GOP "ascendancy" didn't last long, and I agree, because of communications, the leftie ascendancy will last even a shorter period.

I would submit that all of our "societal cycles" -- be they cultural or political -- are accelerating. What used to take a generation will now take...ten years? What used to take ten years will now take...five years? What used to take five years will now take...a few months?

One more manifestation of The Information Age...

[Theodore R.]

I’ve been saying it on this forum for eight years: the American people are clueless, some might even say “dumb as rocks”.

[neverdem]

BTW, the problem with that exit poll is that liberals almost always refer to themselves as “moderates.” Conservatives never do. So it’s almost certainly 33/33/33 in final makeup.

I'm not so sure about that. Maybe Schumer thinks he's a moderate, but I don't. It doesn't explain small 'l' libertarians, about 10 - 15 percent of the voters, blue & yellow dog dems and an assortment of single issue voters. Do you have a reference?