Why The 2009 Camaro Is Doomed

NMA ^ | 5/16/08 | Eric Peters

[XR7]

Motorheads don’t want to hear it; refuse to believe it — but ugly realities are coming down hard on the ‘09 Camaro that will very possibly cause GM to pull the plug before the first one ever rolls off the line.

Doubt that? Consider the stillborn rear-wheel-drive next generation Chevy Impala — nixed because of concerns within GM about the possibility of meeting the pending (2012) 35 mpg fuel economy edict recently passed by Congress. A lighter front-drive car with a V-6 instead of a V-8 can make the cut; a V-8 RWD Impala can’t. So it’s gone. So is the talked-about next generation GTO. And the future of the G8 sedan looks not so good. GM is openly talking about scaling back the entire Pontiac division — and ending its role as a performance brand.

No bull; not my opinion. Just facts.

Now consider the 2009 Camaro — and the world in which it will have to swim. Gas prices are already surging toward $4 per gallon for regular unleaded. And Camaro’s not even here yet. By the time the car reaches production status in about eight months or so, we may very well be at $5 per gallon.

Maybe more.

At the same time, the buying power of the dollar is falling down the well — so everything is becoming more expensive, not just gas. And most of us are not making more money to compensate. Quite the opposite. Inflation and income stagnation are hitting us hard. Those of us who still have jobs and have been able to maintain the same income we had a year or so ago are few, thankful — and nervous. Buying a new car is not on our agenda. And buying a frivolous new car even less so. Camaro is not an exotic; it is a "Joe Sixpack" kind of car — so middle class and working class buyer skittishness is no small thing.

GM is well aware of these facts — which are going to kneecap Camaro (and any car like it) on the consumer level. Whatever the projected sales potential was two years ago should probably be cut in half. Bet your bippie that the bean counters within GM have thought about this, too.

That’s bad enough — and by itself could be sufficient to make going ahead with Camaro in 2009 about as sensible as building something like a Series 62 Cadillac would have been in 1979.

But wait, there’s more. Don’t forget the 10,000 pound Tallboy bomb that’s about to fall onto GM’s head (and ours) in the form of the 35 mpg CAFE edict. That changes … everything. The recession, crippling gas prices and declining buying power of the dollar are merely the coupe de grace.

A V-6 Camaro could maybe meet the current 27.5 mpg CAFE requirement for passenger cars without major engineering changes/expenses or hitting buyers with a "gas guzzler" surcharge that would bump the purchase price of the car up by $1,000 or more.

But 35 mpg? Only a few four-cylinder economy compacts and hybrids make it under that bar. Anything much over about 3,200 pounds with an engine larger than 3 liters is getting iffy. With a 300-plus hp V-8 engine and rear-wheel-drive?

Forget it.

Don’t believe it? Chew on this:

The current Ford Mustang GT — a car very similar in layout/power and so on to the pending ‘09 Camaro — manages just 17 mpg in city driving and 26 mpg on the highway. That’s with the 4 liter V-6 engine, by the way. The GT’s 4.6 liter V-8 (300 hp) slurps it down at the rate of 15 mpg in the city and 23 mpg on the highway. To survive 35 mpg CAFE, the V-8 Mustang GT would have to somehow nearly double its current average fuel economy. How is this going to be achieved, exactly? Think Ford is worried about the Mustang’s viability?

You’d better believe it.

The new Dodge Challenger is in even worse shape, CAFE wise. Its wonderful 6.1 liter V-8 won’t last long in this world, given city mileage of 13 mpg — and highway mileage that isn’t even out of the teens (18 mpg). Yes, a V-6 version is coming, but the most efficient engines of this size/type that Chrysler has available - like Ford — don’t come close to delivering 35 mpg.

Camaro’s in the same pickle. Neither the base V-6 version nor the high-powered V-8 model have a prayer of achieving CAFE compliance. If they’re produced, buyers will be facing huge "gas guzzler" surcharges that will only add to the growing roster of negatives arguing against making a purchase — from $75 fill-ups to the general uselessness of cars of these type, beyond their ability to provide a good time.

And here’s the deal: Chrysler’s already on the hook; the commitment to production has been made. It will have to at least try to make a go of it. For awhile. Ford has a strong buyer base for the Mustang; a case can be made that even with gas guzzler fees and generally awful times, economically speaking, it’s worth trying to hold the line — at least, for the moment.

But Camaro?

GM no longer has a sure bet buyer base; the name has been out of circulation for almost seven years now. That is a long time, regardless of other external issues, such as gas prices. Rebuilding a brand/make of car is tough in the best of times. In bad times, it is a fool’s errand. And it’s a luxury that cash-strapped, no longer number one GM cannot afford to indulge. If Camaro sinks — as all signs indicate it will — GM will lose a ton of money. Remember that unlike Challenger (which is "spun off" the existing Charger sedan) GM has had to invest a great deal in what amounts to a brand-new platform/tooling and so on to make this happen. Big sales are needed to make it up. It increasingly looks as though that is extremely unlikely to happen.

Which is why GM may just abort the whole thing before it ever sees the light of day.

You wait and see.

[CGTRWK]

Don’t know much about minicars. Look up the numbers with trucks.

[steve86]

Doesn’t the second in your list, the Chevy Aveo, do better with the auto?

[Flying Circus]

oops, got my table a bit out of order...

Model	Manual	Auto
Chevy Cobalt	24/27	22/26
Chevy Aveo	27/33	26/32
Ford Focus	28/35	28/33
Ford Fusion	23/29	23/28
Honda Civic	29/34	29/36
Hinda Accord	25/31	24/31
Honda Fit	31/34	30/34
Mazda3	27/32	26/31
Mazda5	24/28	23/27
Mazda6	24/29	23/28
Nissan Altima	26/32	26/31
Nissan Sentra	24/31	25/33
Toyota Corrolla	31/37	29/35
Toyota Yaris	32/36	31/35

[Flying Circus]

Had to fix my table.

[steve86]

Except most of the old mopeds will have to be pulled when the ban on two-stroke engines comes into effect.

Which ban is that?

[Squawk 8888]

My understanding from the bike clubs is that sales of new vehicles with two-stroke engines is being phased out over the next couple of years in Canada and the USA, and by 2017 registrations for existing two-stroke vehicles will be revoked.

[Flying Circus]

Trucks are the same story... except that manuals are becoming more scarce.

Model	Manual	Auto
Ford F150	16/19	16/19
Ford Ranger	23/26	21/24
Chevy 1500	16/20	16/19
Chevy Colorado	20/24	18/22
Toyota Tacoma	22/25	21/25
Dodge 1500	16/20	16/19

[NaughtiusMaximus]

I remember when the early SAABs were imported during the early 60’s. They had 2 stroke engines and sounded like colossal chain saws. In Northern Minnesota, in the summertime, everybody laughed at those little red footballs (to coin a phrase) until winter came and they proved to be unstoppable wonder machines on snow and ice. I wish I had one out in the shed. Oh well.

[nascarnation]

Thanks for the well-informed post.
Also there’s going to be a good bit of activity with the “h” word vis a vis the Camaro.
(aka hybrid - 6liter 2 mode etc)

[the invisib1e hand]

Why The 2009 Camaro Is Doomed

'cause it ain't a Mustang.

[Smokin' Joe]

2.2l? What did you do, shove a vega engine in there?

[Andonius_99]

My '94 Caprice Wagon has a 350 V-8 and seats 8-9. It gets 26 hwy. When mostly full, it is a better value than a 4 seater econobox (because you would need to drive TWO of them).

I was talking with a coworker about this very subject last week. Everyone's all up in arms about "miles/gallon" determining the value of a car; but the real value of a car, I think, can be determined by "miles/gallon/person." Looking at that figure, the older, more powerful cars that seat more people (or today's SUV's) are a much better value in terms of utility and that's where the value of a vehicle can be determined.

[okie01]

It’s the height of stupidity to pay so much money just to be able to go 0 to 60 in 4 seconds.

For you, maybe.

But why would you object to somebody else paying their own money to do that?

[JasonC]

The democrats will be in the rickshaws. You'll be out front, pulling.

[Onelifetogive]

...to maintain the same income we had a year or so ago...

A 9% pay cut? That would suck...

[steve86]

This is the first I’ve heard of this. Of course, new two strokes have not been sold in the U.S. for on-road use in many years. I will have to await confirmation as I have one licensed two-stroke myself. The “phasing out”, if this applies to new off-road two-strokes, will come as quite a shock to KTM and other manufacturers who import thousands every year. I have not seen any indication in the bike mags this is even rumored. In addition, the ban could not possibly apply to every two stroke variation as the advanced technologies being developed are some of the cleanest ICEs available.

[Straight Vermonter]

Those of us who still have jobs and have been able to maintain the same income we had a year or so ago are few, thankful — and nervous.

WTF? Are there breadlines and food riots that I am not aware of? Are "Hoovervilles" popping up along highways that I have not seen? This guy is delusional.

[BikerTrash]

I used to have a 1966 GTO with a 6.5 liter (389 CID) V8 and a carburetor, and it got this kind of mileage or better. What gives?

Around 350 to 375 horses, (just going on memory here), compared to 425 horses. Ratings were different back then than they are now which make the gap even larger. Efficiency is some better but not that much and more horsepower = more fuel, (generally speaking).

The new Hemi Challenger is also ridiculously heavy, over 4200 pounds, I hear. My old 440 Sixpack Challenger weighs around 3750, probably close to what your GTO weighed. Too fancy, too much safety junk on the new Challenger I reckon.

[L_Von_Mises]

GM is so far along in the process that the 2009 Camaro is pretty much a done deal. I read somewhere that they have already done a test run on the new engine production line. They have also been testing prototypes all over the country as well as at Nurbrurgring in Germany. I just saw some spy shots of the newly designed interior and it looks pretty good (about 90%+ finished).

Regarding fuel economy, my 99 SS gets a little over 30 mpg on the highway, which is on par with many econo-boxes. New technology will surely push that higher. I would expect the base V-8 to get close to the same as mine on the highway.

Engines today are much more efficient than they used to be. My 2006 Town Car gets 25 mpg on the highway. Thats only 5 mpg less than most of the econo-cars someone else posted mpgs for. Figure a 900 mile road trip (distance from my house to Florida) and the cost difference for gasoline is about 40 dollars at today's prices. For the 40 dollar difference, would I rather ride in a Town Car or a clown car for 13 hours?

GM Plans to unveil the new 2009 Camaro at the Brickyard race in September. This will be the first time anyone will know for sure what engines will be in the new Camaro. Speculation is three models - A V-6 with 300 hp, a V-8 with about 400 hp (possibly LS3?), and one serious performance version that is anyone guess - maybe a supercharged 550 hp version:)

General Motors, Chevrolet Division and the Central Indiana Camaro Club would like to announce an exciting new development in the Camaro world. We have now been authorized to release information that the new production Camaros will be in attendance and unveiled at the Indy 08, Back at the Brickyard Event in September. The car will be unveiled at the event and many different models/engine combos will be available for the general public to review. Expect to see many different color combinations as well.

The 'Back at the Brickyard' Event will be happening in Indianapolis Indiana from September 19-21, 2008 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Hundreds of Camaros, Firebirds, and Pace Car owners will be in attendance to celebrate the unveiling and enjoy this historic event. GM Dignitaries will be in attendance as well to discuss the design, engineering, marketing, and accessories for this new model of Camaro.

Vendors will also be on hand displaying their products.

For more information on this event, please visit

http://www.indycamaro.com/Indy08

We look forward to seeing everyone there!!

Photos and video of the test cars can be found on the net. I have seen white, white with black stripes, at least two black ones side by side, and a yellow one.

In the news today:

The new agreement with the CAW includes a commitment to build an additional RWD vehicle along with the Camaro at St. Catherines (Oshowa, Ont.). Also a new six speed transmission and fuel efficient V-8 - likely to have direct injection and cylinder deactivation will be built there.

http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1029762

Additionally, GM keeps pushing the envelope with respect to powerful V-8s -
Chevrolet Announces Certified Power Ratings For The New Chevrolet Corvette ZR1: 638 Hp From The Supercharged LS9 V-8

As someone once said "There is an ass for every seat."

Since it is average fuel economy over an automaker's entire line that matters, it would take a heck of a lot of sales of these cars to have that much of an impact on their overall CAFE. The automakers need something to get buyers into the showroom, even if they end up buying an economy car.

[oknavigator]

I just read today that the smart car only weighs 1800 pounds? They've already sold 7-8000 of those. They get what 32-35 mpg? Give me back my Geo Prizm that my wife wrecked! 45 mpg and the best little car I ever had. I called it my motorcycle with a shell around it. 3 cylinder standard. 1995 model was VERY roomy inside.