Dissecting Hillary's Win in West Virginia (Excellent analysis)

The National Review ^ | May 13, 2008

[2ndDivisionVet]

Ninety-five percent of Democratic primary voters in West Virginia today were white. About 70 percent of them did not have a college degree.

Among white voters without a college degree — largest demographic in the state — Hillary carried, 72 percent to 25 percent. She won white voters with a college degree, 55 percent to 41 percent.

Back of the envelope calculation gives Hillary a floor of 64.15 percent... winning by 29 points at least.

As discussed last Tuesday afternoon, the dominant voices in the press are ready to declare the race over. Last Tuesday night, we saw some of the most influential voices in television news (Russert, Stephanopolous) declare the primary over. Terry McAuliffe is complaining that 90 percent of the media are in the tank for Obama. (Welcome to the party, pal.)

You'll see the press, and Obama's surrogates (perhaps I repeat myself) insist that tonight's result means nothing, and indeed, in the delegate count, the effect is marginal. But superdelegates ought to be sweating. White working-class voters, and various overlapping demographics - the elderly, Catholics, Jews - just aren't warming up to Obama, and they've been the backbone for the party for generations. Liberal bloggers (and Saturday Night Live, and arguably the Washington Post) are responding by suggesting Hillary's supporters are racist; these people may not be so eager to vote for Obama in November as the pundits insist. Once you insult a voter by calling them racist, they may not be eager to meekly repent by doing as their moral betters in the pundit class demand.

Hillary Clinton is still the underdog, and she faces long odds to overcome Obama in the delegate and superdelegate fights. But the fact that anointed-nominee Obama couldn't make any traction in any key demographic in West Virginia ought to keep the superdelegates awake at night. And she will be invigorated by this win; landslide victories tend to do that. The exhausted mainstream media bigfoots tried to end this story one chapter too early.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

I've come to realize that the Dems care little about winning the Presidency. Congress controls the cash and as long as they can hold onto both houses they can spend as they wish and complain about how everything is the President's fault.

"Little" might be an overstatement, but I have to think you have a point - any Republican always is so concerned over foreign/military affairs that he never has much political capital left from those battles to use to hold down spending.

[Wallace T.]

If McCain or his advisers are smart, they will use Richard Nixon's 1972 playbook and not Karl Rove's early 2000s one to win the general election. In 1972, Nixon made significant breakthroughs with certain demographics similar to those where Hillary is strong - rural and blue collar whites in the inland Northeast, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and Appalachia. Nixon also picked up more Jewish votes than any other GOP Presidential candidate since Warren Harding. (His fierce anti-Semitism was not publicly known at the time.)

However, McCain will need a Spiro Agnew to throw some rhetorical red meat to conservatives. Perhaps Mike Huckabee will fill the bill.

[billhilly]

Would someone please make the point that these are two democrats running against each other, not against a republican? They are splitting the votes of democrats, not, as Hillary claims, demonstrating that she can win the big states. Except for Limbaugh’s egoism, they have not begun to tally the votes of the opposition. That will wait for November, and if history is any guide Democrats will vote for their nominee an republicans will do the same.

[Vigilanteman]

Huckabee?

You mean open borders Huckabee? Global warming Huckabee? The Huckabee who talks to God and substutites his feelings for the rule of law? The Huckabee who p*sses on Mormons and denegrates Catholics as second class Christians?

All Obama has to do is nominate a faux Mormon like Harry Reid or a so-called pro-life Catholic like Bob Casey Jr. and he can beat McCain like a drum with Hucksterbee on the ticket.

[ArrogantBustard]

Did you vote in the DEMOCRAT primary?

[Jane Austen]

They all are the same. Hillary's affect and entitlement make me think “sociopath.” I am hoping for a miracle. With McCain looking feeble as Cindy helped him off Cindy's private corporate jet and talking as if about to collapse, he may not make it to August, and the Republicans will nominate somebody normal.

[Strutt9]

Truth be told there are three rats running, obama, hillary and mccain. Yes, the democratic ticket is btw o/h and these two will split the rat ticket and we are seeing that demo ticket candidates will divide (hopefully) democrat party once and for all.

McCain is no better.

[Wallace T.]

I'm far from a Huckabee fan; his record as Governor of Arkansas was not conservative. His anti-Mormon statements are not a major problem because the main Mormon strongholds of Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming have not supported a Democrat since 1964. The GOP regards the Mormon vote the way the Democrats do the black vote. I am not aware of any anti-Catholic statements Huckabee made, although one of his vocal supporters, John Hagee, has made some anti-Catholic remarks, especially in connection with the role of the Catholic Church in the Holocaust. Even so, Hagee is not as anti-Catholic as Jeremiah Wright is obsessively anti-white. And Huckabee was never a member of Hagee’s congregation.

[xzins]

I agree.

The democrats are following the media/Obama piper right over the cliff.

If the MSM is aware of it, it can only mean that they truly desire a McCain presidency.....that there’s something they want that they’ll get out of it.

McCain + blue-collar democrats = a McCain victory.

[MaryFromMichigan]

Hillary Clinton is still the underdog, and she faces long odds to overcome Obama in the delegate and superdelegate fights.

Indeed. Just this morning another super delegate, congressman Pete Visclosky of Indiana, announced for Obama.

Hillary's head must be exploding.

[IncPen]

ping

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

W is for the war I’ll end it
H means healthcare fix (think soylent green)
I is for your income, who’s to spend it?
T for taxes picking your bones clean
E is for entitlements for everyone
(I have one myself: to be your queen!)

Put them all together they spell working,
Hardworking, you know, WHITE voters love me!

[Eva]

Hillary is not far enough left for Oregon and Washington. They don’t trust her not to move toward the center once she would secure the nomination. The Seattle World Trade Meeting and NAFTA finished the Clintons with the far left, not to mention Hillary’s support of the war. They also didn’t like the weak support that the Clintons gave Al Gore.

This is Obama and Ron Paul country.

[wildbill]

Black and Liberal spokespeople continually rail against racism in America. Why should we be surprised when some folks act out in their voting.

Unspoken in Dem back rooms right now is their fear of the Bradley Effect theory which arose when Tom Bradley lost an election in Liberal California which appeared he would win handily.

The BRADLEY EFFECT:
The theory suggests that statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but that those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the non-white candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate.

[sitetest]

Dear Morgana,

Only about 25% of the adult population over the age of 25 has a four-year college degree. Thus, that 30% of primary voters had college degrees means that they were slightly better educated than the population as a whole.

sitetest

[Charles Henrickson]

Ninety-five percent of Democratic primary voters in West Virginia today were white.

MAKE YOUR VOTE, COUNTRY FOLK
Tune: "Take Me Home, Country Roads" Original
By Winn Denver

Almost landslide, West Virginia
Numbers mountin', headin' on to Denver
Folks are white here, whiter than the sheets
That the early Byrd wore, blowin' in the breeze

Country folk, make your vote
For the race you belong
Mrs. Clinton, not Obama
Make your vote, country folk

All my prim'ries dare not end here
My election's set for this November
Dark and dusky stranger on the rise
Mustn't let him beat me, take away my prize

Country folk, make your vote
For the race you belong
Mrs. Clinton, not Obama
Make your vote, country folk

I hear your voice, in the evenin' hours you cheer me
This victory assures me that I'm queen for a day
And standin' on the stage
I get a feeling that this Wheeling's all the U.S.A.
U.S.A.

Country folk, make your vote
For the race you belong
Mrs. Clinton, not Obama
Make your vote, country folk . . .

[rhinohunter]

...our down-ticket will take a serious beating...

That is an understatement!

McPain has got to be the luckiest man alive. He won a primary he had no business winning, and then he is likely to eke out a general election that no Republican had any business winning.

The black and loony leftist base of the rat party will turn out in droves in the Fall. The coalition of blue-collar dems, independents, and deflated GOP base should be just enough to put McPain ahead of the black/loony left hordes that will turn out for Osama. HOWEVER, those blue-collar dems and independents will absolutely NOT be voting GOP down ticket, and McPain will be elected President with a HUGE rat majority in Congress.

And for Senor Juan -- that would be a success beyond his wildest dreams!

[Brett66]

This will be interesting to see how it plays out. White people don’t like Obama (and for good reason) Conservatives don’t like McCain (and for good reason).

So whoever is despised less, wins.

[Condor51]

Dissecting Hillary's Win in West Virginia (Excellent analysis)

Hillary Voter Breakdown:

• 79% of the Moonshine Is Food vote
• 67% of the My House Is A Double-Wide vote
• 84% of the Pickup Truck Owner vote
• 58% of the Roadkill Is A Delicacy vote
• 92% of the I Have Three or Less Teeth vote
• 82% of the I Hate My Ex-Wife, Sisters Can Be A Real B*tch vote.

  And....

• 96% of the No I'm NOT *really* In the Klan, Those Are My Bedsheets On The Clothes Line vote

Sorry no offense, but there must be a reason WV is the butt of jokes.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Barry will be the weaker candidate against McCain, IMO.

True. But because of the twenty something idiots he will turn out and the huge black vote, our down-ticket will take a serious beating with Obama as the candidate--the dems could lose the presidency but have a veto proof congress--not that McCain would veto bills passed by his buds across the aisle anyway.

With Hillary winning over 70% of the vote in WVa, the logical role which the superdelegates are designed to play is to swing the nomination to the stronger opponent of McCain - Hillary.

But for the superdelegates to do that now - after Obama has already been anointed by the the media as the presumptive nominee - would be to tempt a replay in Denver of Chicago 1968 - and the splitting off of the solid black vote from the Democratic Party to a third party. The maximum objective of Operation Chaos!

Those super delegates have a real problem!