Posted on 05/13/2008 3:02:37 PM PDT by Red Steel
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in Oregon shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 38%. Thats a significant improvement for Obama compared to a month ago when he led the presumptive Republican nominee by six percentage points. In three consecutive Oregon polls, McCain has never received more than 40% support when matched against Obama. In the current poll, McCain attracts just 68% support from Republican voters in the state.
Obama leads McCain among voters under 50. With older voters in Oregon, the two candidates are essentially even. Nationally, McCain and Obama remain fairly evenly matched among all voters in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
The poll also found that the race would be somewhat closer if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. In that match-up, Clinton attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 40%. The Oregon Senate race also has the potential to be troubling for the GOP.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Obama leads McCain 49% to 39% in Oregon. With a three-poll average, McCain leads Clinton by just a single point, 44% to 43%.
Obama remains the most popular of the three candidates and is viewed favorably by 61% of Oregon voters. McCain earns favorable reviews from 52% while Clinton is viewed positively by 47%. Those perceptions are relatively unchanged over the past month.
Oregon has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in five consecutive Presidential Elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a 85.0 % chance of doing so again. However, during those five elections, no Democrat has earned more than 52% support in the state. Three of the five Democratic victories were earned with 47% of the vote or less. In Election 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush in Oregon 51% to 47%. At the time this poll was released, Oregon was ranked as Likely Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Oregon voters oppose proposals for a federal gas tax holiday. Just 35% support the concept. Nationally, voters are evenly divided on the question.
Just 33% believe the federal government needs more revenue to fund important national programs. Fifty-one percent (51%) disagree.
Forty-nine percent (49%) are worried that the next President will raise taxes so much that it harms the economy. Thirty-seven percent (37%) are worried the next President will cut taxes so much that it harms important government programs.
Sixty-one percent (61%) oppose increasing the capital gains tax and 49% believe such a tax hike would harm the economy.
Just 29% of Oregon voters say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Thats down three points from a month ago. Twice as many, 57%, say he is doing a poor job.
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John McCain comments on global warming:
"Its the critical issue of our time. Perhaps the worst legacy of the last 10 years may be our governments failure to meaningfully address the issue of greenhouse gases. Climate change is real...We are literally risking the future of our planet, our childrens and grandchildrens future...The question is, will it be too late? My great fear is that we may reach a tipping point where the effects are irreversible."
“Isnt Oregon lib country?”
Not really.
It was a swing state for Bush, albeit he came on the short end of the stick. That said, Oregon is experiencing California transplant syndrome.
Fleeing high prices and taxes in California, Californians moved to Oregon, buying up land, sending up the price of real-estate, and voting for liberal politicians—who raised taxes.
Had Republicans run a strong economic conservative like Romney, I think the state could have swung in our direction. Jobs are extremely hard to come by there, particularly on the coast. Wages are depressed. I mean, why is a guy from Oregon going to vote for John Mccain? I’m just not seeing the inspiration.
I think that’s the real problem we’re running into: the only thing remotely interesting about McCain is his war experience. And Americans are appearingly incerasingly worn out with Iraq. There’s no edge there. At all. Barack Obama represents “change”—a meaningless, undefined, amorphous change per his own campaigning. But I guess it’s different.
Anyone care to define the McCain presidential run in one or two sentences?
I hope Mc Cain has reverse coat tails and that traitor Gordon Smith gets the boot.....lets give Oregon nothing but libs except our very respectable Congress critter Walden.
We're screwed.
http://www.270towin.com/states/Oregon
Barack Obama represents changea meaningless, undefined, amorphous change per his own campaigning. But I guess its different.
Different, as in you like??
“Barack Obama represents changea meaningless, undefined, amorphous change per his own campaigning. But I guess its different.
Different, as in you like??”
haha! That’s a laugh. :) I was speaking on behalf of the more ignorant voter who really isn’t into politics. The guy who isn’t happy with the way things are, hasn’t really thought through exactly why that’s the case, and who is looking for something to latch onto. McCain offers almost nothing. Obama promises change, though for the most part refuses to comment on what that means. Given the options, I have a bad feeling Joe Public is going to end up siding with Obama.
As for myself, I loved Romney first and foremost because he was a guy with ideas. You went to his website and there were hundreds of policy ideas he spoke of implementing. Economic policies to deal with North Korea? Romney was on it. Same thing with Fred Thompson later in his campaign. Obama is the exact opposite—all fluff, no substance.
Frankly, I’d rather disagree with someone than have them insult my intelligence the way Obama does. Well, that and the fact that I think Hillary Clinton would be a better Commander-in-Chief than the guy—which is truly freaking scary.
People in OR were originally descended from liberal New Englanders, and the liberalism has never waned that much.
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