I have assumed all this time that while Obama is carrying 90%+ of the black vote, it won't much matter come November. The thinking is that blacks go overwhelmingly Dem anyway.
Have there been any studies on this matter to determine whether he may actually carry blacks to an even larger degree than the Dem ticket usually does? That is, either a higher percentage of blacks going Dem (which can't be much higher), or a total number of blacks participating and thereby increasing their significance.
I hope my initial assumptions were correct. If so then I think he is TOAST. If not, then who knows whether 60% of whites going GOP will be enough.
On the other hand, it may be that whites are more likely to participate with a black liberation candidate on the ticket. Any thoughts?
I think the Wright issue has opened the eyes of a lot of whites to the fact that all the programs, reparations, and appeasement have been for naught.
They still hold their grievances, they still hate whitey, including lib whitey, and they’re still angry at you because of your skin color that gives you “privilege”.
In philly - as in any other crime infested, slum ridden democrat hellhole - there are wards and precincts reporting 108% of the vote all democrat.
Happened for Kerry, and with no apologies at all.
As far as a higher total? - Can't see it.
Such an intelligent question deserves a good answer - I’ll try my best.
My understanding is that yes, blacks voted close to 90% Democrat in 2000 and 2004, so there may not be much more of the black vote to go to Obama. But he might increase turnout, which is less predictable. So I would say that Obama has a poteltial reserve of “new” voters, of undetermined size.
This is not to say that it is McCain's either. In the General Election there is a rule-of-thumb that the election is decided by the 'independent' 20%. GOP gets 40% and Dems get 40% from their 'home voters', so the race is on to get the ones in the middle muddle. MAYBE Obama can increase black turn-out based on him being in the race and his skin color, but (the BIG BUT) will that offset the loss of the 'racist' voters who would not vote for said skin color. This IS AN UNKNOWN factor as there has never been a lead candidate of either party under such a condition. Also there might be 'racist' non-black NEW voters who will vote for him to affirm their 'progressive' beliefs. However, his performance in the Democrat Party preliminaries, where the leftist dominate, has only given him about 50% of their support. While the Clinton name has been magic enough to account for a portion of her 50%, it still means that there is insufficient support for him in the General.
Right now Obama has these things going for him:
1) he will have a united Democrat Party hierarchy (including the unenthusiastic Clintons) behind him.
2) The Main-street Media (MSM) adores him.
3) He is probably the best speaker politician in a presidential campaign since JFK.
and 4) Running in a race where he can try to tie his opponent to a very unpopular president after an 8 year term.
His weaknesses are (IMHO):
1) Too much of a liberal elitist with some tainted associations that give lie to his claimed moderate views.
2) Lack of experience after only being on the National Stage for 2 years especially in foreign concerns.
3) Running against McCain who has a proven ability to attract 'independent' voters.
and 4) There are an UNKNOWN percentage of the voters who will NOT vote or vote against Obama for his skin color.
The black vote is not the prize, the hispanic vote is. Without a good fraction of the hispanic vote Obama cannot win. Perhaps he will pick Richardson for veep.
BTW, remember that the black vote turnout is determined by those that count it.
I think that a larger percentage of blacks are voting. That makes quite a difference. We can just write them off, though we’ve never enjoyed much support from that quarter. What bothers me is the large percentage of white voters going for Obama. Scary.
I don’t think Hill is out of the picture. As someone else said, above, Hill will gain back those 11 lost delegates in Puerto Rico. Probably.