I think that a larger percentage of blacks are voting. That makes quite a difference. We can just write them off, though we’ve never enjoyed much support from that quarter. What bothers me is the large percentage of white voters going for Obama. Scary.
I don’t think Hill is out of the picture. As someone else said, above, Hill will gain back those 11 lost delegates in Puerto Rico. Probably.
He is only able to win when he gets a large 90%+ of the black vote combined with about 40% to 42% of whites.
I think he will carry a large % of blacks in November, but the actual turnout in that demographic will not differ much from years past. Dems have always squeezed every vote they can out of the slums of St. Louis, Philly, Chicago, L.A., Detroit, and Cleveland. They will continue to do so. The only change then is that a significant % of whites have been turned off by him. That will not change for the better for him between now and then. The damage is irreparable no matter how much flag waving he does from now on. This drawn out race has been good for a few reasons. 1. The dirt on Obama has come out during their in party fight, allowing McCain to take the "high road". 2. Dem whites who care about their country over their party will not go for Obama now that he is the great "igniter" rather the "non partisan uniter". 3. Obama got most of his delegates before the Wright issue came up, so it locked him in and put the Dem party in an untenable position. If it had been sooner he would have been thrown under the bus. Now he is their most unelectable candidate, and he is also their nominee.
Also, I am not concerned about a new breed of "progressives" that will vote for him just because he is black. Anybody that warped is already involved in the political process as a KOS Kook or DUmmie.
My take is that McCain wins the south and the needed Midwest states. Obama wins the traditionally blue states and makes a few southern states a little closer than usual (eg. McCain wins NC by 8-12 rather than 14-18). But McCain just might pick up Penn. if the cheating in Philly does not exceed 108% turnout. But don't ever count on winning PA just for that reason. FL will be a double digit win, and Ohio will be 5-10 point win. Michigan will be in play, as will Wisconsin and Minn.
If Hillary sabotages him it will be an even bigger blowout. She might do it too since she could run as the presumptive nominee in 12' but not wait for an 8 year Obama term to end. If she takes that road, do not underestimate her ability to destroy him.