Posted on 05/07/2008 1:13:51 AM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle
Tuesday was a decisive night for Barack Obama.
Sure, CBS News called Indiana early for Hillary Clinton (a verdict the network may yet regret, with many precincts still outstanding), and if she does hang on there, she will have won just as many states on the day as Obama did. And she will then soldier on to what should be a landslide win in next week’s West Virginia primary, just as she figures to dominate in Kentucky on May 20.
But tonight made clear one thing: None of that will matter.
Ever since she fell hopelessly behind Obama in the pledged delegate and popular vote counts during a string of February defeats, Clinton has clung to a longshot nomination strategy. She would not be able to overtake him in delegates or popular votes in the late primaries, but she could use them to shake Democrats’ confidence in Obama as a general election candidate.
This would mean winning overwhelmingly in the late states where she was favored and picking off some or all of those that he had been expected to win. Only then, with Clinton making a compelling case that Obama’s supporters were abandoning him in drives, would superdelegates – loath to overturn “the will of the people” and to risk the devastating intraparty warfare that would come from thwarting an African-American who won a pledged delegate majority in the primaries – be receptive to lining up with her en masse.
To Clinton’s credit, she strung this all out longer than many thought she could. She won in Ohio and Texas on March 4, when defeat would have meant the end for her. Then she pulled out Pennsylvania on April 22, and suddenly the wind seemed to be at her back. She began receiving a hearing from some opinion-makers on her specious “big state” argument and her questions about Obama’s seeming inability to connect with white working-class voters (something that made the coverage of Jeremiah Wright’s untimely reemergence all the more devastating for him). For the first time since January, Clinton picked up a new batch of superdelegate endorsements and when she latched onto a gas tax holiday plan and began bashing “elitists,” game-changing wins in Indiana and North Carolina suddenly became plausible.
So much for that.
Obama has absolutely clobbered her in North Carolina. As of this writing, the final numbers aren’t known, but it’s clear that his margin will be well into double-digits. The Clintons can claim that this is an improvement from polls conducted months ago – their surrogates seem to be engaged in an informal competition to one-up each other in stating the initial size of her deficit; Terry McAuliffe said 25 points, while Gov. Mike Easley went with 34 – but political observers, and superdelegates in particular, know better. The North Carolina results do not suggest any significant erosion in Obama’s standing in the state during what has been a very rough few weeks for him.
This alone is enough to derail the Clinton strategy. A win in North Carolina would have been powerful evidence that Democrats are turning on Obama and that the character attacks had rendered him unelectable. A very narrow loss might have helped the Clintons make this case as well. But a landslide defeat?
The implications of the Carolina result are many. First, it reaffirms – yet again – the lack of momentum in this race. The outcome of just about every state has been predictable well in advance. This was true in the Clinton states of New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania (among others) and it proved true in North Carolina on Tuesday. For all of the poll fluctuations before all of these contests, primary day has inevitably resulted in states reverting to form. That there was no measurable momentum in North Carolina is even more significant, because Obama couldn’t have possibly endured a worse two weeks than these past two.
This means that the remaining few contests are basically foregone conclusions. Clinton will win West Virginia next week, Kentucky on the 20th and Puerto Rico on May 1. Obama will win Oregon in two weeks and South Dakota and Montana on June 3. A split, in other words – not the decisive and jaw-dropping series of late wins that Clinton absolutely had to have.
North Carolina also essentially locks in Obama’s edge in the popular vote. His margin should undo whatever benefit Clinton reaped from her win in Pennsylvania. No fair and reasonable calculation of the cumulative popular vote at the end of this process will show Clinton ahead. It is now mathematically inconceivable.
Against these realities, the Indiana results almost don’t matter. Obviously, if Obama ends up ahead when all the votes are tallied, the race will end on the spot, and Clinton won’t even have license to pursue meaningless wins in West Virginia and Kentucky. But even if Clinton hangs on, it will be for show.
Clinton’s strategy since February 5 never stood much chance of working and allowed room for absolutely no slip-ups. Now it’s over.
But that is true in every election, so we haven't lost anything.
However, I think at least 20% of the Democratic base could vote for McCain.
One, many pro-Hillary voters will want to give Hillary another crack in 2012.
Two, moderate Democrats won't trust Obama with national security.
This could turn into a Reagan-Mondale debacle for the Democrats.
What Hillary would have done that Obama can't do, is run on McCain's Right.
You can see how effective a con job that she has pulled off that she has deceived so many even on FR!
Hillary losing is grace from God.
Whether people here want to admit it or not, the whole “Operation Chaos” thing amounts to one thing.
Dirty politics.
How folks who pray for and expect honesty in government and then go along with it is light years beyond me.
She, as Vice President, would nullify his message as changing Washington.
She would also unite the Republican Party behind McCain.
I think Obama is going to try to win the Southwest as the route to the White House, and may put Richardson on the Ticket.
Also with Hillary as VP, Obama would be a 'dead man walking'.
Dirty politics.
...and Juan McPain got the most votes, how? The Hitlery strategy was to have her D folk cross over and vote mcpain. How else can you explain his prominence? This is just payback for giving us no choice.
I gave up on the R party when they nominated Dole. That was another Clintoon choice. They play the game quite will. Pubs have to play to win, as well! I am nothing but an I, now!
I think a combined ticket would be seen as a “unifying gesture”.
With all the talk about change, having a white female and an Afro-American male on the ticket would be about as much change as you can get.
Huh??
She has a couple of good hole cards to play yet.
How folks who pray for and expect honesty in government and then go along with it is light years beyond me.
**************************************************
I don’t get it ... you will never get honesty and integrity from a dem controlled gov’t,, they play to win using every opportunity given them by the rules at every level from school board to election board to various gov’t agencies that never investigate or hold accountable wrongdoings by the rats and you want us to operate at some higher standard with our hands tied behind our back? So operation chaos was a success ,, we whipped that old nag Hillary until she broke both cankles with a huge loss and an underwhelming win yesterday, her campaign is flat broke and we may still see her spit one last shot of venom at Obama... it’s all good! And even better McCain may be seeing the light with huge numbers of repubs STILL voting against him...
We can thank 75 years of domestic socialism for that. A majority of Americans now looks to the federal government to solve their problems. The idea that they need to pay their own way is completely unknown to them. There's no way a conservative can make a case for victory simply because a majority of the electorate is sucking from the government teat.
I continue to ask the question... how can one sell conservatism anymore? Especially to an electorate that craves government "freebies?" There's no way any of these people are going to dare vote for someone who would take away their gravy train.
Did you see Bill behind Hillary last night? He look like a red-faced zombie with his eyes open only to narrow slits. I thought he was going to fall asleep standing up.
>> He look like a red-faced zombie with his eyes open only to narrow slits.
Yep, that’s Bill! Coked up, squinting at that nookie in the back row. Sounds like another typical nite on the campaign trail to me!
...”Hillary losing is grace from God.”...
You are so right! I’ve been here for a while, and have never seen folks seemingly supportive of a Clinton (either one). The best thing that can happen to the USA is to finally be rid of the Clinton cancers. After that, we can deal with the flim-flam man Obama.
God delivered America from Al Gore and John Kerry, he will deliver her from Hillary Clinton.
I personally saw no less than three posts last night (by different FReepers)during primary results that openly said they wanted the Clintons in for eight more years because they were the best choice of the three.
Luke21 has my nomination for post of the week.
“I don’t get the feeling that he’s thought too much about the day after the election if he’s won.”
I have that same feeling. I felt the same way about Kerry. They only want to WIN — never mind that they don’t have a clue about governing the greatest nation in the world. Winning — that’s all that matters to the RATs. Look how they have run the House and the Senate the past two years!
...and I’ll second that nomination.
I voted for Obama in the NH primary for exactly the reasons you set forth.
Plus, it's not just Hillary!, bad as that is.
She has a huge shadow government of regulator-wannabes, Federal judges in waiting, and underemployed Executive Branch lawyers who are rarin' to go.
BHO cannot be elected, and if by some miracle he were elected, he cannot be effective.
Hillary!, OTOH, is the real deal.
Rush Limbaugh really IS a big fat idiot.
I Love It! Might need to say it again....
Clinton’s strategy since February 5 never stood much chance of working and allowed room for absolutely no slip-ups. Now it’s over.
(GRIN!!!) This is a good day. Hopefully, Rush and his Operation Chaos nonsense won't let her back up off the mat.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.