Posted on 05/06/2008 3:52:09 PM PDT by prolifefirst
The Huffington Post's sources are checking in faster than mine. They say the early exits show Obama winning North Carolina by 12, Hillary winning Indiana by 7.
Last time, the early numbers from my sources in the chain of data were way, way, off, so as usual take these numbers with as many grains of salt as you deem necessary.
UPDATE: Then they change to Obama by 14, Hill by 5.
Grains of salt, people. Grains of salt.
ANOTHER UPDATE: The suspiciously-rapidly-changing numbers from Huff.
Indiana Obama: 50.5%
Clinton: 49.5%
North Carolina Obama: 60%
Clinton: 38%
My sources are not likely to be productive tonight. One of them might be compromised, which means I'll have to make sure he's silenced before he talks.
05/06 05:51 PM
Having heard Obama praise the Clinton machine in Indiana I don’t think the Indiana numbers will be so close.
Shrillary should win by at least a few plus the Republican and late ‘undecided’ votes that always seem to fall her way more than 2-1.
Add it together that must be 4-7 give or take a point in Indiana.
I don’t get a chance to listen to Rush too often, but didn’t I hear that part of the Operation Chaos “strategerie” was to vote for Clinton and report to the exit pollers that you voted for Obama, LOL?
Indiana - 85 total delegate votes - 47 district / 16 at large; 9 Pledged PLEOs; 12 Unpledged PLEOs; 1 Unpledged add-on
North Carolina - 134 total delegate votes - 77 district / 26 at large; 12 Pledged PLEOs; 17 Unpledged PLEOs; 2 Unpledged add-ons
From MSNBC’s Norah O’Donnell, Adam Verdugo and NBC’s AnaMaria Arumi
Two things that stick out to us in the North Carolina primary: Early voting could play an important factor and, so far, voters seem to have made up their minds well before today’s contest. Remember, early voting in North Carolina started on April 17th — 20 days before today’s primary. Democratic Party officials predicted about 400,000 people voted early, either in person or by mail, which means those votes were cast before the latest controversy with Obama’s former pastor Reverend Wright.
Let’s look at the key groups who decided to vote early or absentee in North Carolina. Over a third (37%) were white women, 30% were over age 60 and more than a third were college graduates. Only 7% were first-time voters. So far this season we’ve seen that Hillary Clinton has held an advantage among those voting early, but Barack Obama has made a major effort to get his supporters to cast ballots early in this go round.
Also, voters in the Tar Heel state made their decision very early. Only 19% decided on their candidate in the last week. An overwhelming number of voters — 81% — said they made their decision well before that.
NORTH CAROLINA:
WHITE WOMEN: 37%
OVER 60: 30%
COLLEGE GRADS: 39%
FIRST TIME VOTERS: 7%
Advocates of early voting argue that it makes it easier for people to vote — in some states, 50% of the votes are cast in advance. But others question the practice, noting that early voters often make their decisions before they have a chance to see how the campaign unfolds. The news last week around both the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s statements and Obama’s public divorce from him (and denouncement of his statements) might have played into some voters decisions.
The polls are still open, but turning now to voters who voted early in the day today, we asked them when they made up their minds.
TIME OF DECISION NC:
TODAY: 8%
LAST 3 DAYS: 6%
LAST WEEK: 5%
LAST MONTH: 20%
BEFORE THAT: 61%
May 6 (Bloomberg) — Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads among Indiana Democrats who say they are being affected by a U.S. economic slowdown, according to exit polls for television networks and the Associated Press.
Barack Obama leads in North Carolina among those voters most concerned about the economy, the exits polls show.
Almost two-thirds of Democratic voters in Indiana, or 65 percent, and 60 percent in North Carolina said the economy is the top issue facing the country. That’s the highest number in 28 prior exit polls in states with competitive Democratic primaries, according to AP.
Voters flocked to the polls today for primaries in Indiana and North Carolina as New York Senator Clinton, 60, and Obama, 46, fight it out in the final critical weeks of state contests for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Of Indiana voters who say a sluggish economy is the country’s most pressing issue, 54 percent said they voted for Clinton, while 45 percent supported Illinois Senator Obama.
In North Carolina, among voters who said a slowing economy was their biggest concern, Obama got 52 percent while Clinton received 44 percent, according to exit polls cited by CNN.
Indiana voters were split over Obama’s pastor, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright Jr., whose statements critical of the U.S. have caused a national controversy and brought the issue of race into the forefront of the election.
Forty-nine percent of Indianans said Wright was not an important factor in their voting decision while 48 percent said he did sway their opinion of Obama.
In North Carolina, 50 percent said Wright wasn’t important and 48 percent said he was, according to the exit polls.
Obama got 92 percent of the black vote in Indiana and Clinton got 8 percent, according to exit polls cited by CNN.
Obama also dominated among black voters in North Carolina, where he won 91 percent compared with Clinton’s 6 percent, CNN said.
That would be a good strategy — it would show people how unreliable exit polls can be. It would also leave egg on the face of the TV reporters, who report on elections as if they were horse races.
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