Posted on 05/05/2008 4:52:32 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
McCain is also courageous in ways they aren’t, even excluding his Vietnam trials and tribulations. He is funny too, and has a sense of humor about himself. Hillary can fake that pretty well, but Obama is too much the tender flower.
Thx
As I am prognostiucating Obama by 4 points in NC, and therefore Obama for the Democratic nomination, I’d say ...
Virginia and Missouri are off the table. We should be slightly favored in Ohio. And, Pennsylvania and maybe Michigan are toss-up’s.
Obama, on the other hand, is still threatening to take Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, and is holding up pretty well in Minnesota and Wisconsen.
Earlier this year, I was thinking Gov. Pawlenty could be the key to a back-up strategy if we lose Ohio (i.e., MN + holding onto CO, IA and NM would make up for losing OH). Now I am thinking the safer route is to try to carry Pennsylvania and/or Michigan in addition to Ohio.
NH back in the red...or whatever. I think they should reverse the color scheme. NH is very close though.
Source, based on polling as of 2008-05-05
The problem with all of this is no one has the slightest idea what will happen due to the race factor. I get my hair cut at an inner city barber shop. There are Obama posters and t-shirts everywhere. The guys in there are taking part in the process for the first time ever. But if Hillary wins the nomination, they are going to stay at home.
If, on the other hand, Obama wins, he will be faced with a backlash by the Reagan Democrats and some union groups even as he runs up big margins in the inner cities.
My own opinion is that it will be easier for McCain to lose by being too hot than it is for either Clinton or Obama to win.
McVey
The problem with all of this is no one has the slightest idea what will happen due to the race factor. I get my hair cut at an inner city barber shop. There are Obama posters and t-shirts everywhere. The guys in there are taking part in the process for the first time ever. But if Hillary wins the nomination, they are going to stay at home.
If, on the other hand, Obama wins, he will be faced with a backlash by the Reagan Democrats and some union groups even as he runs up big margins in the inner cities.
My own opinion is that it will be easier for McCain to lose by being too hot than it is for either Clinton or Obama to win.
McVey
This chart needs to rethink Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. In that order.
This is great stuff but why are Nevada and New Hampshire given to McCain if at 50%? Would appear to be a dead heat; could go either way, couldn’t they?
You’d think McCain has a shot in New Mexico due to him being from Arizona
Yes, that is true.
I set it up to not have ties. Normally, I just look at the first digit of the percentage and color accordingly.
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