The new, new math: Clinton's delegate count looks grim, Obama's electability questionable

MSNBC/The National Journal ^ | April. 29, 2008 | Charlie Cook

[2ndDivisionVet]

Despite the recent show of strength by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., the odds against_her_winning the Democratic presidential nomination are as imposing as ever—and probably worse.

There was a time when one of the stronger arguments in favor of nominating Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., was that he was more electable than Clinton.

The thinking at the time was that Clinton was so polarizing, she could get close to winning a general election but would have difficulty getting over the top.

Now, about the only plausible argument that Obama is more electable is to claim that Clinton’s backers would probably get_over an Obama nomination better and sooner than vice versa.

Indeed, while Obama might lose some states by narrower margins than Clinton, his weakness among downscale and older white voters raises questions about whether he would be as competitive as Clinton in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, or, for that matter, run as strongly as Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., did in 2004.

But the delegate math is the delegate math, and there is little if any good news there for Clinton.

Almost half of the delegate advantage she netted against Obama in Pennsylvania was offset by losses of superdelegates the same week. Colby College political scientist and delegate selection expert Anthony Corrado estimates that Clinton would need to win about 69 percent of the remaining delegates, a virtual impossibility given proportional representation of the nominating contests.

In recent months, Clinton has been losing up to three superdelegates for every one she has picked up.

One superdelegate in a Southern state, clearly a Clinton sympathizer, said it would be political suicide for him to oppose Obama, pointing out that the black community would be furious. The best support he could offer Clinton would be to remain neutral until it’s over.

[2ndDivisionVet]

It's like a badly written soap opera.

[Izzy Dunne]

it would be political suicide for him to oppose Obama

I wonder if he can explain the purpose of superdelegates.

[wideawake]

I wonder if he can explain the purpose of superdelegates.

It's interesting that the superdelegate system includes a large contingent of elected officials: a group that can hardly be expected to rise above the preferences of their local constituents.

[Always Right]

And yet there are still many conservatives who have their panties in a bind over Operation Chaos.

[JCG]

As well as he has bonded with “Starbucks” Democrats, he has not done so well with white, “Lunch Bucket” Democrats. Obama’s appeal is a bit too exotic for their tastes.

Yes, there's quite a bit of "exotic" in Obama...

 

Obama: Man of the World
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Published: March 6, 2007

Mr. Obama recalled the opening lines of the Arabic call to
prayer, reciting them with a first-rate accent. In a remark that
seemed delightfully uncalculated [...], Mr. Obama described the
call to prayer as "one of the prettiest sounds on Earth at
sunset."

http://select.nytimes.com/2007/03/06/opinion/06kristof.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
http://nevadathunder.com/?p=3626




----

Send treats to the troops...
Great because you did it!
www.AnySoldier.com

[unkus]

Something to keep in mind: All the Rats who have jumped ship on the Clinton’s had better hope and pray she doesn’t get elected because there will be hell to pay. And Pelosi doesn’t want the witch in the White House.

[LS]

Cook seeing the electoral college handwriting on the wall. Amazing, isn’t it, that a strong conservative could CRUSH either of these two, and we’re stuck with Captain Queeg.

[LS]

You got that right. They’ll suddenly find all their affairs, tax cheating, and other “indiscretions” made public by the Clinton FBI-file machine.

[kromike]

And yet there are still many conservatives who have their panties in a bind over Operation Chaos.

Agreed. This is shaping up to be a classic Mexican-standoff. Further, it reminds me of the final standoff scene in "Reservoir Dogs".

[Owen]

I sincerely wish FR would get properly calibrated on this. Here are the things that do not matter:

1) It does not matter that Obama is more leftist than Hillary. It is the middle that decides elections and they won’t support him.

2) It does not matter that McCain is not as extreme a right wing candidate as many would like. He is rightward of either Hillary or Obama. And worse, far far worse, the Obama people will draw the same conclusion about Hillary and she being leftward of McCain. They Will Come Home.

3) It does not matter hugely what the far right or far left think. The middle wins elections. McCain is far more a centrist with a centrist’s reputation than Obama. THAT can win this election and prevent surrender in Iraq, overt pro choice justices replacing those retiring, moderation in the tax increases the Dem Congress will impose, a more conservative universal health care approach than Obama or Clinton would impose, AND perhaps even some stronger enforcement provisions in the inevitable comprehensive immigration reform bill to come.

The Middle Wins Elections. Obama is much farther from the middle than Hillary. That is why FR needs to prefer him to Hillary. McCain is much closer to the middle than Obama.

[wideawake]

All the Rats who have jumped ship on the Clinton’s had better hope and pray she doesn’t get elected because there will be hell to pay.

Which is why the people who will be fighting most bitterly on Obama's behalf at the convention will be the former Clintonites.

[garyhope]

Obammy has got about as much chance of being elected as I do.

He’s creepy and arrogant. He gets creepier every time I see him. He has the demeanor of “The True Believer”, smug, arrogant, condescending. He’s a Manchurian candidate. Creepy, really, really creepy. Elmer Gantry, the Latte’ version.

Obammy’s not really a real American, he lives in another universe.

I can’t believe that the Dim Dhims will actually nominate him. Hillary would be a tougher candidate. With Obammy, it’s gonna be worse than McGovern.

[unkus]

It’s a beautiful thing—as long as the witch or ovomit don’t get elected.

[wideawake]

Good summary.

I would argue that if Clinton wrested the nomination from Obama there would a significant number of Democrats who would be too disgusted with the whole process to bother voting.

But we can't count on the disillusioned being numerous enough to defeat Clinton by staying home.

[Sybeck1]

It’s more fun than having to vote for the Jerry Ford clone with the bad temper this November.

[unkus]

Also there is the Michelle Obama factor. She is one mean, nasty woman who hates America. She just looks mean and spiteful. Would love to see her in a cat fight with Hitlery.

[deport]

Good review. Clinton needs to be put down as quickly as possible and end any hope that she may have of becoming the nominee. Obama can't win the Presidency, imo but Clinton may pull it off.

[garyhope]

You're right. Thanks for bringing that up. She's tougher than TaRayzah 57 Varieties Carry also. She's not strung out on gin raisins either.

[Dilbert San Diego]

Well, I think we’re all nervous about what might happen. We’ll see on the morning of November 5th how this all turns out. If the Democrat is elected president, we may all look back and see turning points, strategies that backfired, problems not addressed.

I’m all for Operation Chaos if it results in a McCain victory and maybe some more Republicans in Congress, due to Democrat meltdown from the top of their ticket to the down ballot races. I just don’t know where this is all going to end up.................

[NRPM]

I am still against it, and I have written Rush a couple of times pleading with him to stop.

The practical reason is that Obama is much more beatable in November - let him take Hillary out now.

The philosophical reason is that conservatives understand that actions can have unintended consequences. One shouldn’t mess with forces that can’t be controlled, and we can’t control what happens in the Democratic nominating process, or the mistakes candidates make, or the news cycles. Operation Chaos could put Hillary in the White House.