Posted on 04/30/2008 1:11:40 PM PDT by knighthawk
Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said.
Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged.
This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.
However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that warming will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the oceans veer back towards warming, according to the computer model.
Noel Keenlyside of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel, Germany, said: "The IPCC would predict a 0.3°C warming over the next decade. Our prediction is that there will be no warming until 2015 but it will pick up after that."
He stressed that the results were just the initial findings from a new computer model of how the oceans behave over decades and it would be wholly misleading to infer that global warming, in the sense of the enhanced greenhouse effect from increased carbon emissions, had gone away.
The IPCC currently does not include in its models actual records of such events as the strength of the Gulf Stream and the El Nino cyclical warming event in the Pacific, which are known to have been behind the warmest year ever recorded in 1998.
Today's paper in Nature tries to simulate the variability of these events and longer cycles, such as the giant ocean "conveyor belt" known as the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which brings warm water north into the North East Atlantic.
This has a 70 to 80-year cycle and when the circulation is strong, it creates warmer temperatures in Europe. When it is weak, as it will be over the next decade, temperatures fall. Scientists think that variations of this kind could partly explain the cooling of global average temperatures between the 1940s and 1970s after which temperatures rose again.
Writing in Nature, the scientists said: "Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic [manmade] warming."
The study shows a more pronounced weakening effect than the Met Office's Hadley Centre, which last year predicted that global warming would slow until 2009 and pick up after that, with half the years after 2009 being warmer than the warmest year on record, 1998.
Commenting on the new study, Richard Wood of the Hadley Centre said the model suggested the weakening of the MOC would have a cooling effect around the North Atlantic.
"Such a cooling could temporarily offset the longer-term warming trend from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
"That emphasises once again the need to consider climate variability and climate change together when making predictions over timescales of decades."
But he said the use of just sea surface temperatures might not accurately reflect the state of the MOC, which was several miles deep and dependent on factors besides temperatures, such as salt content, which were included in the Met Office Hadley Centre model.
If the model could accurately forecast other variables besides temperature, such as rainfall, it would be increasingly useful, but climate predictions for a decade ahead would always be to some extent uncertain, he added.
These pseudo-scientific hallucinators are a serious public menace.
They'd better dumb down the rest of the universe soon ‘cause this BS is getting harder and harder for the regular tax paying presently dumbed down masses to swallow!
I have to give them credit though, what a HUGE brilliant scam to force rich and powerful nations to their knees!!!
You have to give them credit.
As I’ve said, Global Warming Theory is extremely robust with respect to data: All observations confirm it with probability 1.0.
Notice, the article says “may not”. How about a more affirmative statement, something like, “Unequivocally may not...”
Not if we're going into another sunspot minimum, like the Maunder and Dalton minimums that brought about the Little Ice Age in the middle ages, and the intense cold period in the late 1700's.
During the 80's and into the 90's, there was copious sunspot activity, resulting in warming of the earth, hence Global Warming. Since the turn of the century, those sunspots have been diminishing, and since Jan. of 2008, there have been extremely few, most of which were from the old sunspot cycle, NOT the new one. The longer it takes for the new sunspots to appear, the colder the earth gets, even WITH the amount of CO2 that is going into the atmosphere.
Yep.
I guess the planet having existed for billions of years, and the life on it managing to survive, doesn’t mean much to the GW alarmists.
If we were to stop all sources of man-made or manufactured sources of CO2, would the average global temperature change?
If so, which way?
Two questions I have not seen them address.
ROFL! These guys are will come up with any excuse.
Sounds like they are getting desparate.
“The longer it takes for the new sunspots to appear, the colder the earth gets, even WITH the amount of CO2 that is going into the atmosphere. “
Yes, but as it gets colder, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (might, could possibly, should, may) change.
Which is obvious proof they were right all along (/sarcasm).
Even the Branch Algorians realize the public will be on to them because the temps aren’t rising. This is their new tactic, to predict a pause of a decade and then claim after that it will warm again. That way when it doesn’t warm, they are right, and they can continue their quest to destroy the American economy and install socialism throughtout the world. How they think people will buy this crap, I am not sure, but then again with the ADM ethanol whore, The Green GE media scam (cnbc, msnbc, nbc, etc., and Al Gore and his carbon credits scam, maybe we are that gullible.
I was out in California discussing this with a couple of freinds from my youth this last weekend. One of them used the term “Global Climate Change” and I immediately jumped on him.
I said, “Listen to yourself. Six months ago you would have said, ‘global warming’ but the greenies have now got you so brainwashed that you change your terminology in lock step with their changes that are required to utilize to keep the scam alive.”
I had fun earlier in the evening asking for twenty dollar bills and handing over in return, pre-printed, Al Gore $20 Carbon Credits that I had brought with me. I told each recipient, “See this is how it works. Step One, you get the carbon credit and can continue to feel good about yourself and live in the West Coast proliferant lifestyle you like. Step Two, Al Gore gets your twenty dollars. Everyone is happy.”
ping a ding ding
Or until after the end of the coming Glacial Period, which should be a few tens of thousands of years or so, based on the historical record.
Note that time runs from right to left on that graph. The appearance of more variation in the more recent millenniums is due strictly to having more data points.
“Step Two, Al Gore gets your twenty dollars. Everyone is happy.”
Not everyone. Next time, send the Twenty dollars to me.
Then I’ll be happy too.
By the time I was done with my theatrics I had them laughing at themselves. I started it out billing it as a clear and concise economics lesson on the utility of carbon credits in rescuing the planet.
I just believe Genesis 8:22.
Some things bear repeating!
yeah, but it wasn’t really a ‘lesson’ unless you kept their money.
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