Global warming may 'stop', scientists predict

Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said.

Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged.

This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.

However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that warming will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the oceans veer back towards warming, according to the computer model.

Noel Keenlyside of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel, Germany, said: "The IPCC would predict a 0.3°C warming over the next decade. Our prediction is that there will be no warming until 2015 but it will pick up after that."

He stressed that the results were just the initial findings from a new computer model of how the oceans behave over decades and it would be wholly misleading to infer that global warming, in the sense of the enhanced greenhouse effect from increased carbon emissions, had gone away.

The IPCC currently does not include in its models actual records of such events as the strength of the Gulf Stream and the El Nino cyclical warming event in the Pacific, which are known to have been behind the warmest year ever recorded in 1998.

Today's paper in Nature tries to simulate the variability of these events and longer cycles, such as the giant ocean "conveyor belt" known as the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which brings warm water north into the North East Atlantic.

This has a 70 to 80-year cycle and when the circulation is strong, it creates warmer temperatures in Europe. When it is weak, as it will be over the next decade, temperatures fall. Scientists think that variations of this kind could partly explain the cooling of global average temperatures between the 1940s and 1970s after which temperatures rose again.

Writing in Nature, the scientists said: "Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic [manmade] warming."

The study shows a more pronounced weakening effect than the Met Office's Hadley Centre, which last year predicted that global warming would slow until 2009 and pick up after that, with half the years after 2009 being warmer than the warmest year on record, 1998.

Commenting on the new study, Richard Wood of the Hadley Centre said the model suggested the weakening of the MOC would have a cooling effect around the North Atlantic.

"Such a cooling could temporarily offset the longer-term warming trend from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

"That emphasises once again the need to consider climate variability and climate change together when making predictions over timescales of decades."

But he said the use of just sea surface temperatures might not accurately reflect the state of the MOC, which was several miles deep and dependent on factors besides temperatures, such as salt content, which were included in the Met Office Hadley Centre model.

If the model could accurately forecast other variables besides temperature, such as rainfall, it would be increasingly useful, but climate predictions for a decade ahead would always be to some extent uncertain, he added.

Was there ever any more proof that they don’t know what the he!! they’re talking about!? All of their prognostication of gloom and doom are just now contradicted by the same junk science and voodoo Ouija board predictions. The truth is there is no such thing as man made global warming. There are decadal variations and variations that follow different cycles that overlap for perceived good or bad.

For all of those believers in the false God of MMGW, do a little research on the cycles of warmth and cooling in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Do a little more research and look for overlapping mapping of the flow characteristics of the global currents and heat re-distribution. I haven’t done it yet, but the information is out there on the cyclical variations of La Nina and how they line up with the above variables. Truth is, without factoring in ALL of the variables into the planet’s climate model, all you have is theory. There has not been one climate model that has taken more than just a few convenient factors into the climate model.

And just for good measure, These MMGW mental midgets have purposely excluded the SUN as having any influence in their model. No sunspot cycles or anything.. IDIOTS!

By Michael John McCrae
Dec. 8, 2004

In the State of Washington, the biggest threat to clean air is not the environmental policies of the Bush administration; but a natural phenomenon; Mount St. Helens.

Mount St Helens has been: “pumping out between 50- 250 tons a day of sulfur dioxide. The EPA should be furious. They have yet to find a way to collect fines from active volcanoes.

Mount St. Helens joins other natural factories of pollution like Italy’s Mount Etna which: “can produce 100 times more sulfur dioxide than Mount St. Helens” affecting huge areas of Europe; or the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii which: “churns out 2000 tons a day of sulfur dioxide…creating an acid fog that damages crops.”

If one volcano can beat an entire state of man- made emissions, becoming the top dog of state sources of pollution, what is a state to do? What is the EPA to do? Should Environmental Activists run to the base of the mountain and picket Mother Nature?

Perhaps the ACLU can sue to have the mountain’s name changed because of the religious overtones of the title “Saint”! Aren’t volcanic eruptions considered “Acts of God?” OH! NO! Can’t have that! But, how do you take a volcano to court?

Along with the sulfur dioxide, Mount St. Helens “produces 500-1000 tons a day of carbon dioxide.” Now, carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas; but, do not fear, because man-made sources of carbon dioxide beat out the mountain by 10 times that amount.

All the earth’s volcanoes combined produce only about one percent of all sourced carbon dioxide. If you remember the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines though, that one eruption is said to have put more pollutants in the air than all the automobiles ever built and driven up to the time of that event. One “Act of God” became a greater source of pollution that all the cars of history! That’s amazing! A rumor I’m starting is that the EPA has put out an arrest warrant for God concerning the Pinatubo disaster.

Science is a wonderful thing. But science can be taken to extremes. We hear about how man is destroying this planet; yet natural sources of contamination and pollution happen every day and nobody blinks an eye.

There are those that decry the fact that America hasn’t been bilked into giving up jobs and adding to the national debt by joining the worthless Kyoto Protocol. China, the world’s heaviest polluter is exempt from the protocol. Since China is just now expanding its industrial development, it is getting a bye from Kyoto. Every day China causes more unchallenged pollution; yet it is America, the cleanest country of the world, with the most expansive environmental laws in existence that is impugned for its stance against another plan to steal money from the American taxpayers while allowing super-polluters to buy exemptions and the expense of American jobs. We don’t need Kyoto. We are clean enough thank you.

So until the EPA and the Environmental Movement can come up with a big enough pair of handcuffs to rein in Mother Nature, Mount St. Helens’ title as Washington’s super polluter is assured to continue.

http://www.useless-knowledge.com/1234/dec/article115.html

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