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Robert Novak: Deepening Democratic Dilemma - The Bradley Effect
Real Clear Politics ^ | April 23rd, 2008 | Robert Novak

Posted on 04/23/2008 10:07:26 PM PDT by The_Republican

Prominent Democrats only whisper when they compare Obama, the first African-American with a serious chance to be president, with what happened to Los Angeles' black Mayor Tom Bradley a quarter of a century ago. Exit polls in 1982 showed Bradley ahead for governor of California, but he actually lost to Republican George Deukmejian.

Pollster John Zogby (who correctly predicted Clinton's double-digit win Tuesday) said what practicing Democrats would not. "I think voters face-to-face are not willing to say they would oppose an African-American candidate," Zogby told me.

The escape route from this dilemma only a few months ago seemingly was indicated by the sudden emergence of Obama as an extraordinary candidate who could transcend race and ideology. But as Bill Clinton sought to label Obama as his wife's black opponent, he increasingly also has been identified as bearing the same ideological burdens that brought down Democratic nominees George McGovern, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. It has gotten worse for Obama, losing every high-population state to Clinton except his own Illinois.

Obama hit a low in Pennsylvania, despite clouds over Clinton's credibility and her husband's dysfunctional campaigning. Popular freshman Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, a pro-life and pro-gun Catholic, was Obama's faithful surrogate but proved no help. Exit polls showed Obama losing 70 percent of Catholics, 58 percent of white Protestants and 62 percent of gun owners. Clinton carried union members, wage-earners between $15,000 and $75,000 annually, and people with less than a college degree. Obama was saved from total disaster in Pennsylvania by 92 percent of the African-American vote, but the reverse of the racial divide was Clinton's support from whites, especially white working women.

For the first time, Democratic loyalists not necessarily committed to Clinton are wondering whether the party's system for picking a nominee is the problem.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bradleyeffect; democrats; election; elections; lyingtopollsters; obama; obambi
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To: The_Republican

I tend to think the problem in American politics is that the Republican Party is not truly conservative but the Democratic Party is truly liberal. History will judge this as a good thing or a bad thing.


21 posted on 04/24/2008 1:19:10 AM PDT by kipita (“Love” is to humanity as gravitons are to an infinite # of universes.)
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To: CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC
Maybe the issue with Dem voters isn't racism.

Yeah, think that "clinging" crack had anything to do with 70% of the Catholic vote taking a hike? It was the modern, double-domed materialist's equivalent of James G. Blaine's famous snark about "rum, ruin, and Romanism". Bye, Jim, you're not going to be President.

22 posted on 04/24/2008 1:46:01 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus ("Whatever." -- sinkspur)
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To: The_Republican
I don't buy this RACISM problem and if it is, its not to this extent.

I'd say if racism is involved, it was due to Obama's unapologetic embracing of open racists and terrorists that was the major problem. You can't fool all of the people all of the time. Obama's maximized that resource (fools) and it's not enough, evidently.

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23 posted on 04/24/2008 2:41:23 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: The_Republican

I was called a racist on here for suggesting that there were, on both sides, voters who WOULD and WOULD NOT vote for Obama BECAUSE he is black.

Sheesh.

It is not to say racism is a big problem in this contest which it is not, IMO. I was stating a reality of human nature, the way that there are people out there who will or will not vote for Clinton BECAUSE she is a woman.

The problem is Obama is an extreme leftist, liberal marxist who has not done a thing in his entire career.

Heck, people vote or don’t vote for someone because they don’t like their hair.


24 posted on 04/24/2008 3:40:53 AM PDT by rlmorel (Clinging bitterly to Guns and God in Massachusetts...:)
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To: The_Republican
This is the problem:


25 posted on 04/24/2008 3:43:39 AM PDT by rlmorel (Clinging bitterly to Guns and God in Massachusetts...:)
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To: rlmorel
Yep. There were reports of Hillary canvassers in NE Philly encountering folks who said they were voting against "that N-----" more than voting for Hillary. Of course, the attitude in the black nabes in said city were probably the same FOR Obama.

You can't discount the effect of race, especially in a state with alot of elderly folks with little education, to say nothing of the neer do wells in the ghetto of any age.

26 posted on 04/24/2008 3:44:28 AM PDT by Clemenza (I Live in New Jersey for the Same Reason People Slow Down to Look at Car Crashes)
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To: The_Republican

>> Democratic loyalists...are wondering whether the party’s system for picking a nominee is the problem.

The deeply flawed MESSAGE? Nope, can’t be that. The message is just NEVER the problem with these guys, is it?


27 posted on 04/24/2008 3:46:29 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (I'm not voting FOR John McCain -- I'm voting AGAINST Hillary/Obama)
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To: lentulusgracchus

I tend to find that in the Philly area, blue collar Catholics have a “history” of tensions with their black neighbors that goes both ways in terms of hostilities. Don’t know about the rest of the state.


28 posted on 04/24/2008 3:46:33 AM PDT by Clemenza (I Live in New Jersey for the Same Reason People Slow Down to Look at Car Crashes)
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To: The_Republican

Good Grief!! He let Libby HANG for NO REASON!! I Have NO RESPECT for Novak!


29 posted on 04/24/2008 6:26:02 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion.....The Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Caipirabob

“I’d like to buy the world a coke....”


30 posted on 04/24/2008 8:24:51 AM PDT by wardaddy (I wish a real conservative had the balls to win that The Witch does)
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To: ChicagahAl
“OK now I see only white men can be biased and racists.”

As well as abusers, sexists, rapists, villans, etc. That is the mantra of the political left. Oh, and of course, lefties can only be victims, never perps. Clear, isn’t it?

Comment:
I think many white men especially those who do not have to squat while peeing are waking up to find that they are seen by most liberals as the problem not the cure for what ails this country.

The liberals which consists of hate America first scumbags,racists, racists enablers, racists baiter's, communists who have declared for Obama, communists who have declared for Hillary, spurned NOW dames, Lesbians, Queers, trans engendered,Christian haters and the list go's on make up a majority of the all inclusive Democrat party.

However,the sign reads No Real White Men Need Apply to the Democrat Party.

31 posted on 04/24/2008 8:33:00 AM PDT by OKIEDOC (Kalifornia, a red state wannabe. I don't take Ex Lax I just read the New York Times.)
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To: Clemenza
You can't discount the effect of race, especially in a state with alot of elderly folks with little education, to say nothing of the neer do wells in the ghetto of any age.

I only have anecdotal evidence, but there are plenty of white senior citizens, male and female, that live in strong Democrat areas that will not vote for a woman or a minority. It's not racism/sexism, it's generational. They may not have college degrees, but they graduated from high school at a time when the 3 R's were taught, and taught well.

Given the razor thin margins of political races today, even 50,000 could determine the difference in a state.

32 posted on 04/24/2008 8:44:01 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (Forget it...I'll never be able to pull the lever for McCain!)
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To: lentulusgracchus
James G. Blaine's famous snark about "rum, ruin, and Romanism".

Almost. It was "Rum, Romanism and Rebellion" - a characterization of the Democrats as being anti-Temperance, pro-Catholic, and having had Southern sympathies during the Civil War and after. And they weren't Blaine's words. What actually happened was he was at a NY fundraiser, and one of the after-dinner speakers was a long-winded, bloviating, bigoted Protestant minister. Blaine and the other GOP attendees were so mind-numbingly, eye-glazingly, bored with the neverending speech that they didn't hear the anti-Catholic dig, and thus missed any chance to immediately repudiate the speaker. But a reporter who was actually still alert got a big scoop out of the remark, and Blaine narrowly lost NY state and with it the entire election. He may have lost anyway, because Catholics were already suspicious of him. In spite of having an Irish-American Catholic mother and a sister who was a nun, he was the prime mover behind the no-public-funds-for-religious-schools "Blaine Amendments" passed by many states, that were seen as being aimed against parochial schools.

The "Mugwump" Republicans who campaigned on behalf of Democrat Grover Cleveland didn't exactly help him either! (Wonder how many GOP Mugwumps for Obama or Hildebeest we'll see this year?)

"Blaine, Blaine, James G. Blaine, the continental liar from the State of Maine!" (The GOP response, referring to Cleveland's fathering a child out of wedlock, was: "Maw! Maw! Where's my Paw? Gone to the White House, Haw Haw Haw!")

33 posted on 04/24/2008 11:32:22 AM PDT by CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC
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To: CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC
Ah, yes, American politics -- once so couth and mincing, now deracinated and Madonna-ized. Oh, well. Quam cito transit, et cetera.
34 posted on 04/25/2008 9:36:15 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus ("Whatever." -- sinkspur)
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