Candidates on equal footing in Indiana

Politico ^ | April 23rd, 2008 | Jonathan Martin

[The_Republican]

With a demographic landscape that's well-suited to both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, Indiana is shaping up to be the most consequential battleground of the remaining states.

In a signal of the state's importance -- and of his desire to end the evening in a place more favorably inclined to him -- Obama appeared with Hoosier-born rocker John Mellencamp on Tuesday night in Evansville, Ind., as the Pennsylvania vote was being counted.

He campaigned in New Albany, just across the Ohio River from Louisville, Kentucky, on Wednesday. Clinton held a rally in Indianapolis Wednesday and was scheduled to spend Friday and Saturday campaigning throughout the state.

Obama and Clinton have traded the lead in Indiana polls, but there have been few reliable local surveys to date. One thing seems certain: Unlike Pennsylvania, where Clinton began with a pronounced advantage, Indiana is a state where both begin on an equal footing.

For Obama, the raw math suggests a slight advantage. Upwards of 25 percent of the primary vote will come out of just two counties: Marion and Lake. The first is home to Indianapolis, the capital and state's largest city, and the second is home to industrial Gary, located in the northwest corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market.

Both will strongly favor the Illinois senator, predict Indiana political observers, thanks in part to large African-American populations.

According to Robin Winston, a former Indiana Democratic chairman who hasn't endorsed in the race, 253 precincts in the state have delivered more than 90 percent of the vote to Democrats in recent elections -- 241 of them are in the Indianapolis-based 7th District and the Gary-based 1st.

Both places have quirks that are likely to benefit Obama.

In Lake County, Obama was a household name well before the presidential race.

"The northwest part of our state considers itself part of Chicago," says Matthew Tully, political columnist for the Indianapolis Star and a Gary native. "They get Chicago TV and read Chicago papers and have been watching Obama grow up as a politician for years now."

In Marion County, Obama's already well-oiled grass-roots operation will get a boost. Rep. Andre Carson, who just succeeded his late grandmother in a special election, will face off against three credible Democratic challengers, spiking turnout numbers in the hotly contested Democratic primary.

"If he wins huge in the cities, it makes it harder to overcome in other places," notes Tully.

In other words, Clinton could win the vast majority of counties in the state and still lose. "We have 92 counties, and if he wins the right five, he's OK," said one Indiana Democratic insider.

That's because, contrary to some stereotypes of the state, Indiana's population is largely packed into small and medium cities -- not spread out in rural areas. It's more than 70 percent urban, and 30 of the state's counties produce 81 percent of the vote.

Of course, neighboring Ohio had a similar landscape. It had even more blacks and more big cities than Indiana, yet Obama took a 10-point loss.

One key player there was Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, who threw his support to Clinton. In Indiana, Clinton has the support of Indiana's most important Democrat, Sen. Evan Bayh, who casts an even larger shadow than Strickland.

"The state right now would lean toward Hillary Clinton because of Evan Bayh's influence," said Winston, the former state chair. "He's gone all out."

The son of a former senator and previously the youngest governor in the state's history, Bayh represents a golden name in Indiana politics and is the only Democrat in statewide office.

"He's provided an instant organization," says Dan Parker, the Indiana Democratic chairman and Clinton backer.

Along with Bayh, Clinton has lined up much of the Democratic Party establishment: former Gov. Joe Kernan, the widow of former Gov. Frank O'Bannon, the Speaker of the House, the Democratic Senate leader, many of the mayors of the biggest cities and over half of the state central committee.

And, as they did leading up to Ohio, both Hillary and Bill Clinton have put considerable time into the state, including appearances in smaller locales that rarely get presidential-level attention.

"We've almost had Bill and Hillary offering to bag your groceries and take them to the car they've been here so often," said Winston. "I'm surprised at some of the communities they've been to."

Parker said that even before the Pennsylvania primary, the Clintons had between them made 43 campaign stops across 30 Indiana cities and towns.

Indiana pols expect her to run strong across a swath of central and southern Indiana, in the counties well beyond Indianapolis and Bloomington (home to tens of thousands of Indiana University students and professors) that are culturally similar to neighboring Ohio and Kentucky.

The battleground could well be in two places: the fast-growing, mostly white exurbs around Indianapolis and the northern part of the state outside the Chicago orbit where there are pockets of white ethnics, blacks, college students and rural voters.

With 160,000 new voters registering since January and turnout expected to shatter primary records, Indiana is about to take on its highest profile since propelling Robert F. Kennedy to victory on the same first Tuesday in May 1968.

"It's going to be a very tight race," predicted Kip Tew, an Obama supporter and longtime Democratic strategist, echoing what every Hoosier, regardless of affiliation, said.

And, Tew added, "we've never had a primary in my adult life that matters."

[The_Republican]

Media Pundits started out Pro-Bama but now they are for some reason tilting towards Hillary in my view.

Maybe they think that Super Delegates would make up their mind based on the fact that Obama failed to carry any state, except his home State in Industrial Mid-West.

Michael Barone, who is AS BRILLIANT an analyst as them come, did a piece few weeks back where he gave Hillary 150,000 NET VOTE LEAD in Indiana to give her overall Popular vote lead. He also gave her WINS in South Dakota and Montana.

At the time I thought that he was at least wrong about South Dakota and Montana. Obama has run STRONG in Mountain Regions and already killed Hildabeast in one of the Dakotas, so I didn't believe he would lose both states by combined 40,000 votes.

I didn't know what Indiana would do.

Now it looks like that it would AT BEST be couple of thousand votes difference for WHOEVER wins.

So Mathemetically, EVEN WITH FLORIDA, Hildabeast can not take lead in the Popular vote count.

So THAT should be the metric that Pundits should be discussing. Big Margin of Victory or Death for Hildabeast.

However, Klinton spinmeisters have changed the Metric to Obama's ability to carry a "Russ Belt" state and media has fell for it.

[bill1952]

where there are pockets of white ethnics, blacks, college students and rural voters.

“white ethnics” is code for?

[The_Republican]

Latte Liberals? Lunch Bucket Democrats? Ozombies? No Idea.

[Kakaze]

In Marion County, Obama's already well-oiled grass-roots operation will get a boost. Rep. Andre Carson, who just succeeded his late grandmother in a special election

Andre Carson is a disciple of Farrakhan...He and B. Hussein will get along just fine.

[aposiopetic]

“white ethnics” is code for?

Catholics (just guessing).

[El Conservador]

Well, I’d define it as white people with non-British Isles European ancestry, and Irish Catholics.

[joebuck]

“white ethnics” is code for?"

In Northern Indiana (known as "da region") there are large Serbian and other eastern European communities.

[aposiopetic]

Thanks for the info. I’ll throw in “Orthodox” for good measure, then. :)

[henkster]

Carson is a muzzie, the second one in Congress. No surprise he’s an Obama man.

Bayh has appeared with Hilary at almost every appearance. I’m expecting to see him carrying her luggage around. He wants to be her VP real bad.

[Verginius Rufus]

One difference beween Indiana and the two nearby states where Hillary beat Obama is that Indiana has a smaller percentage of blacks than either Pennsylvania or Ohio....according to the World Almanac it's at 8.8% blacks vs. 10.6% in Pennsylvania and 11.9% in Ohio. That can't be to Obama's advantage.

[The_Republican]

Yeah but for some reason “ethnic whites” are split! LOL! I have no idea how Indiana works. Bayh is the key. I know that Indianans love that dude.

However, Obama was ahead in two polls there. Maybe the neighborhood card works for him.

My best guess is 15-20K votes win for Hildabeast.

HOWEVER, that means she is dead. She can’t overtake him in popular vote either. Then her only hope is for another “gaffe/macaca” moment or her Private Investigators have dug up something else and would releast it to Sean Hannity when the time is right.

[jerry639]

I took one of those polls yesterday evening and will show up as an Obama supporter. It wasn't until half way through the poll that she asked me which party I considered myself affiliated with. I told her I was a Democrat.

One would think that they would know who they were polling. I am two years older than Fred Flintstone and have always voted Republican.

[Prole]

Hillary was behind the following:

1.) Obama's Muslim photo getting widespread attention

2.) Jeremiah Wright's videos getting widespread attention (I know that Sean busted this guy first, but Hillary made sure the videos were on every TV show and newspaper in the country).

3.) The ABC debate where Obama was grilled over an open flame. Hillary's ABC people set the perfect trap when they ambushed him with difficult questions launched consecutively, and Obama walked right into it. That's why he fears another debate with her. He knows her people will shred and embarrass him on National TV.

I am waiting for Hillary to release the French-kissing video of Obama and Sinclair. Or perhaps a photo of him barefoot and kneeling at a rug in a mosque.

Either way, I think that Hillary is going to terminate Obama's image completely. A feat that McCain might have considered, but he certainly would never follow it through.

[The_Republican]

Good job! I think in some ways you helped Obambi out! Everyone derides the poll-results but secretly everyone is enthused when their guy is in the lead and converse is also true.