Why Obama Can't Close the Deal

Yahoo.com ^ | Ron Fournier

[Jess Kitting]

PITTSBURGH - Why can't Barack Obama put Hillary Clinton away?

He's flush with cash. He oversees a high-tech political movement. His "change" message fits these anxious times. And, until recently, he had momentum. So why didn't he win Tuesday?

And why can't he close the deal?

In the short term, it may not matter because Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania is unlikely to change the dynamic of the nomination fight: It's Obama's to lose; it has been since late February when Wisconsin Democrats handed him a 10th consecutive victory and an almost insurmountable lead in pledged delegates.

Longer term, he's got problems. Here are five reasons why Clinton is still alive. Five ways he'd be vulnerable in November.

[TomGuy]

I was hoping Obama could put Hillary away once and for all. Looks like we'll have to deal with her a little longer.

The devil you know, or the devil you don't know?

Very likely, one of them will win the White House. So, which is the lesser of the evils?

[McCain lost 27% of the PA vote to two candidates who have already dropped out of the race. McCain has serious problems with a significant portion of the voters -- losing that percentage in his own party as the only candidate still standing.]

[KenD]

I hope Obama has really good security people and that they carefully inspect any plane or vehicle he plans to get into.
There is more than ONE way for Hillary to 'steal' the nomination.

[TomGuy]

Craig Crawford was on Imus this morning and made the very pertinent point that Obama avoids press conferences and likes to evade questions in general.

Clinton basically called Obama out this morning on Fox&Friends. She said he is "either unwilling or afraid to debate..."

You can bet Team Obama was on the phone playing the whine card.

[TomGuy]

Still if there is one candidate capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory it's McCain.

McCain has serious voter problems. He lost 27% of the PA primary vote to two candidates who had already dropped out of the race. He is still flirting with Independents and those across the aisle. He is still ignoring the conservative base -- and they may return the favor in November.

[Miss Didi]

Bill O. on now with the Friends announced that Mrs. Clinton will be appearing on the Factor in the next few days.

[Hatteras]

"The jury is still out on whether a black man can overcome America's original sin and be elected president."

A black man can indeed become President. But he will have to be a bonafide conservative.

[Miss Didi]

[anton]

I wonder what the numbers would have been if they had split the black vote. At one point, he was getting 92% of black voters. Since black voters always support the Demorat candidate anyway, that would provide some insight into how Osama will do in the Fall. My guess is that she would have beat him by 25 points if the black vote went 50-50.

[Ilya Mourometz]

I’m interested in knowing more about his Hawaii mentor.

I have to be in the minority here and say that McCain is not a weak candidate, but actually a much stronger candidate than Bush 43 was. The indy support, obviously, is part of that, but McCain’s military background is just the sort of thing to bring in the 10% or so of black voters who won’t support Obama and a large percentage of those who are turned off of Hillary. Even without these dem foibles, McCain has always been one of the most popular figures in washington. He might not be particularly conservative, but neither was Bush (or his dad). He’s right on the most important issue of our age, he was above all the other Republican candidates on that issue.

[randita]

Race may be an issue here, too. For years, Republicans aimed affirmative action, school busing, welfare and other racially tinged wedge issues at white working-class voters.

What the heck is he talking about. It wasn't Republicans who pushed these issues.

Dirty little secret that no one is taking on is that a lot of so called "working class whites" (I hate the term working class because it implies that if you aren't blue collar, you don't really work) are racist, pure and simple.

Writers are trying to say Obama alienated these voters with his "clinging" comments, but they already didn't like him.

I echo a poster from yesterday that we WILL have a black president and a woman president, but they will be Republicans, not Democrats.

[Hatteras]

"McCain has serious voter problems. He lost 27% of the PA primary vote to two candidates who had already dropped out of the race."

Meaningless. If those 27% are like me, I would have voted for my favorite candidate (whether he was on the ballot or not) simply because the race has already been decided. Call it a protest vote. But those 27% did not cross over to vote for Hillobamary. I suspect they couldn't stomach the thought of registering as a Democrat to join Operation Chaos.

[Ilya Mourometz]

Absolutely right. A black conservative would win in a landslide, as would a female conservative (other than Rice, who has too many people against her because of the war). I think it’s probably too cute for McCain to pick a conservative veep this time, but perhaps he might bring Steele into a more political position on the cabinet. It is even possible for him to bring Powell in as veep, though he isn’t particularly conservative. McCain needs a strong conservative, but not someone who’s going to scare people—someone who can help pick up the pieces from the dem implosion.

[kabar]

Spot on. The only group voting primarily along racial lines are blacks. Obama won 92% of their vote. Given the fact that blacks and Hispanics comprise about one out of every three Dem voters, it is not surprising that Obama is doing fairly well.

We found out in MD in 2006 that Dems vote along racial lines in the primaries. If more had been known about Obama's connections with radical black theology prior to the Iowa primaries, I seriously doubt he would be leading today.

[TomGuy]

Meaningless. ... Call it a protest vote.

My point exactly. So it isn't meaningless. It is a message to McCain that 27% of his own party are against him and would vote for anyone except ...

If Team McCain blows that 27% off as meaningless, the inauguration will be planned and carried out by the DNC.

[Dustoff45]

Absolutely right. A black conservative would win in a landslide

McCain needs to pick a VP nominee that millions of voter would love to see as POTUS. His age alone dictates his VP choice must be someone ready to serve from Day One.

Michael Steele would give a lot of voters a reason to hold their nose and vote for McCain, especially if they were Obama supporters and Hillary pulled off the nomination.

[Sig Sauer P220]

They’re both pure evil.

[NYC Republican]

He will be FAR more dangerous as POTUS than she would. If she got in, I’m fairly confident we have a good shot at making her a 1 termer... If he got in, every social program will be praised. Every one would pass (for fear of being labeled rac)... She can be dealt with, he’s far more difficult.

[NYC Republican]

BINGO! Thanks for saying it so succinctly!

[TomGuy]

A black conservative would win in a landslide, as would a female conservative

Won't work.

If Clinton is the Dem nominee and McCain selects a female VP candidate....

If Obama is the Dem nominee and McCain selects a Black VP candidate...

Voters will see that for what it is: Pandering of the most flagrant variety.

McCain would do best to select a middle-aged (under 60) strong conservative white male. The Dems are doing the female and Black candidates this time; it would be a significant negative if McCain tries that, too.

[Sig Sauer P220]

Bill O. on now with the Friends announced that Mrs. Clinton will be appearing on the Factor in the next few days.

Oh great. Get ready to here every sentence begin with "You know Bill,,,blah, blah, blah". And never answer any question.