This is a few months old, but still valid.
I'd love to see a more recent rendition.
Posted on 04/21/2008 8:49:42 AM PDT by tatown
As crude-oil prices edge further into uncharted territory, life as a bear has become lonelier than ever.
Benchmark crude futures have registered an electric performance so far this year and now -- near $117 a barrel -- hover well above some of the highest near-term forecasts. The speed of the ascent has caught many market participants off guard and forced banks and brokerages to repeatedly revise their oil-price outlook upward.
Yet some analysts continue to warn that oil prices are teetering close to a steep fall -- at least back near $80 a barrel. For these observers who see the world's oil supply-and-demand balance loosening and weighing on prices, the red-hot rally is nothing short of astonishing.
"I personally think this is the mother of all bubbles," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc., a consulting firm in Amherst, Mass. He expects prices to pull back to $80 a barrel by late June, and in the long run step down to $50 as pent-up supply in Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and other underproducing exporters starts to flow.
For Tim Evans, an energy analyst and inveterate bear at Citigroup in New York, that bubble is "still expanding," filled with sentiment that seems to ignore signs of what he views as a supply surplus through the end of this year.
...
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
When the bubble finally burst, I’ll be the first to laugh at all the speculators.
Bears can be baffled by anything. A black bear wandered out of the woods onto the main road a couple years ago and just stood there looking up and down the road, totally baffled. Never had seen a paved road. I offered to give directions but the bear just turned and ran back into the woods.
The "supply and demand" excuse for ever higher oil prices has always been a very "loose" association. These prices are controlled by various speculating cartels and the price reflects the speculative "odds" determined by these factions more than it reflects supply and demand reality.
It’s a huge bubble that will burst soon. The speculators and profit-takers can’t keep the falsely inflated crude rate that high forever.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
lol. You should have thrown him a cookie.
Too funny!
This is a few months old, but still valid.
I'd love to see a more recent rendition.
Case in point, the presses were running overtime printing shares of dot-com stocks in the late '90s.
Case in point #2, the massive overbuilding of condos and spec homes during the 2002-5 housing bubble.
Where is the additional oil which should be showing up to take advantage of this current bubble? (and yes, I know about ANWR, it's a tiny fraction of the world's reserves)
The answer is, there ain't very much showing up at all.
Mind you, I agree there is some speculative premium in the current price per barrel, but I doubt if the true equilibrium price is ever going to go lower than $80 or so, ever again.
Sure, “they” can charge whatever they want. But make no mistake, people are changing their habits and this will affect at least a short term change in prices. Happens every time.
Too bad he didn’t have the superior intellect of a whale huh?
I’ve just achieved record mpg for my car. 10mph slower on the asshole expressway really makes a huge difference in fuel consumption. I limit myself to 70mph top speed. Also:
K&N air filter installed (+1mpg)
Mobil 1 (+1mpg)
Low restriction muffler (+1mpg)
Air noise inhibitor removed (33% airflow restriction eliminated)
Manual trans. (10% more efficient/more power than automatic)
Uh not so fast Iraq is a mess, Nigeria maybe if food riots dont cause a coup, and definitely not Venezuela Chavez hates us and will do anything to keep oil above 100 a barrel including cutting off production.
“Bears can be baffled by anything. A black bear wandered out of the woods onto the main road a couple years ago and just stood there looking up and down the road, totally baffled. Never had seen a paved road. I offered to give directions but the bear just turned and ran back into the woods.”
Reminds me of a story.
We were in Yellowstone, and our car broke down. It just kind of died. A bear came ambling by. At first we were frightened, but then an amazing thing happened - he started to converse! ... about our car!
“Broken down?” the bear barked out. “Yes”, we stuttured.
“It’s your carborateur.” the bear said.
A park ranger came by. We expressed excited amazement at the talking bear, but the ranger was non-chalant: “Dont listen to him, he doesnt know anything about cars. He says the same thing about every broken-down car.”
Moral: Bears may talk, but they’re usually wrong.
Ubermoral: I lost bucks shorting oil in 2006. I thought $70 was a crazy price - then it hit $79. I think $115 is a crazy price. It may be the top, it may not be. I am sure in December the price will be different, but whether it is $130 or $60 ... whoever really knows will make a killing off those who guess wrong.
I don't know who you mean by "they", but the United States has plenty of untapped oil reserves that if the environmentalist wackos stepped aside, we would be energy independent. Build nukes for electricity and drill ANWR, Gulf coast, and Dakota. I think the "they" you refer to would be rendered meaningless.
that’s it, simple market manipulation by greedy folks which hurts everyone. And their monopoly on the world’s energy needs will be coming to an end very soon with the new nano lithium battery technology. Hydrogen and electric cars will be taking over with the electricity cost being about 135 mpg equivalent. Hydrogen gas is already being created with low amp’s and distilled water and baking soda by thousands of car drivers for much improved mpg’s. Protiumfuelsystems.com will be coming out with a bolt on hydrogen gas injector for any car for about $5000 by the end of the year which will run cars on 100% hyrogen gas. Problem solved.
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