Posted on 04/18/2008 2:19:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
I was collecting articles on a post showing the end game coming in Iraq for Sadr and his Mahdi Army but Bill Roggio beat me to the punch today in a much better post than I was going to put together. Update - some interesting tidbits inside Roggio’s piece are worth emphasizing:
Iraq’s Department of Border enforcement also seized a large shipment of roadside bombs, landmines, and explosives as it was smuggled from Iran into Iraq’s Diyala province.
The Mahdi Army appears to be striking back by targeting political and religious leaders in the Baghdad South. Over the period of two days, assassination attempts were carried out against the governor of Najaf province and a senior aide to Sistani in Wasit province.
It seems Iran and the Mahdi are getting desperate. The weapons going into Diyala are possibly for al-Qaeda to use, since that is their region of Iraq. It would be another indicator of Iran’s support to both al-Qaeda and the Mahdi. The assassination attempts are clearly attacks Iraq’s government, now a US ally. This is a dangerous game for Sadr and Iran to play. We will not allow defeat easily. - end update
Needless to say Sadr has refused to disarm despite statements from Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf that Sadr must obey the law and disband his militia. Here is the response from the Mahdi claiming they won’t disarm until the Shiite clerics tell them to - again? Here is a great piece at Pajama’s Media by the owner of the blog site Iraq The Model who notes the end game is in play:
The ongoing confrontation highlights a dramatic change in the inclination of the Iraqi leadership, which decided to face the challenge with unwavering resolve instead of shrinking away. We have learned from the experience of the last five years that unresolved fights tend to be very costly in the long run, as we will have to deal with recurrent fights over and over again. It can be understood from Maliki’s words that he came to realize that the decision to disband or exterminate illegal military entities should have been made a long time ago.
At this point neither side is happy with the results and I think that both have made up their minds to go to war because each one thinks his side is closer to winning and has greater backing from the public than his rival. However, I believe that Sadr is making the mistake of thinking that what worked for previous battles would be equally effective in future ones. I strongly think that if a final battle is to take place, it will unfold with a bitter defeat for Sadr militarily and politically; the balance of power by far favors the state in spite of the difficulty of the situation.
The Iraqi leadership represented by Maliki is standing before a historic opportunity to strengthen the foundations of the rule of law. This opportunity has been made available by the decision of the Shia to renounce and expel the extremists amongst them, a decision that was long avoided because of sectarian considerations that were proven wrong later.
Not only is the end game at hand, it looks likely Sadr’s movement will be destroyed. And we can see evidence that things are coming to a head as Iraqi forces are surrounding Basra strongholds again today (see here).
Also of interest is how the other Shiite groups are playing it against Sadr. Sadr’s main rival is a cleric named Hakim (sp?) who had a rival militia which was integrated into the Iraqi security forces. His group notes that the only ones bearing arms against Iraq is al-Qaeda and the Mahdi.
Finally, Ralph Peters is royally PO’d with the lies and misinformation coming from the SurrenderMedia and notes the Iraqi forces are operating 95% as required, which is much better than America did in its history.
On my blog, I made up a scenario where a joint Israeli-American strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would come at the same time a joint strike at Syria’s plants and also B-52’s took out Iran’s Ristani and the A-thug’s homes. In Syria, they take out Assad. And Special Forces take out Mookie with a bullet in his head. This will never be done, of course. Bush is simply not up to it.
That's a Dale Brown novel right there. Nice.
Thanks for the info.
AEI scholar Michael Rubin's very sober analysis of Iran (Interview with Hugh Hewitt)
*******************************INTRO EXCERPT***************************
AEI scholar Michael Rubin's very sober analysis of Iran
April 16, 2008
HH: Joined now by Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute, one of the country’s leading authorities on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Michael Rubin, last week, Vice President Cheney was on the program, and I talked to him about 12th Imamism, and about Ahmadinejad. And the left has gone crazy, and they’ve been throwing bricks at him, because he said we should take very seriously what Ahmadinejad says, and we should be concerned about sort of a millennialist outlook. And I’ve been waiting to talk to you ever since this controversy broke out, and to get your reaction to the idea that the people of the United States government have to pay attention to the theology of Iran.
What do you think?
Thanks
Maybe you could rewrite it , that since no green light was given a Spec 4 cook bashed Mookie's head in with a frozen chunk of mystery meat .
No they need to lace Mookie’s tea with some bad acid: LSD, which will have him trip and flip out of his mind, and stumble off a cliff./Just Asking - seoul62......
That would work for me , just so long as no good acid was wasted and the CIA was not allowed to foul it up . The way this freaking lucky Mookie has been though , I would not be surprised to see him do a Geronimo , a PLF and run off .
To add on to it: as Mookie is tripping out of his mind, and stumbling or running to the cliff - have Helen Thomas and Madeline Albright do a belly dance for him, while eight drag-queens pelt him with cream pies and rotten eggs./Just Asking - seoul62.......
The issue seems to be that many at State think there are students, profs, intellectuals just waiting to start a counter rev. It simply is a dream. They do not have the guns nor any inside support from the Army. The theology of the Madhi is insane, of course, but more and more outsiders in the ME are starting to ‘wish’ this were true since they are still Third World nations in spite of oil. They hate Western civ. because it overtook the old Empires including the Ottomans and envy has grown with an excess of radical thought which has been there since the old Sepoy Revolt in India. Frankly, I am sick of the Islamofascists and would support any strike by Israel to blast those plants as well as Tehran. They will never give up radicalizing all Muslims and inside their hearts, my bet is, that most Muslims secretly support Osama and the radicals.
Goodbye Mookie! Iraq won’t miss you.
Slap leather, Al Sadr.
I’m not there, but my cousin is. Be cool, and quick.
Iraqi Army Seizes Basra From Militia as Cleric Threatens New Uprising
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From the article:
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Whether to counter those allegations or simply because, as many Iraqis have recently speculated, Mr. Sadr’s stock has recently fallen in Iranian eyes, the Iranian ambassador, Hassan Kazemi Qumi, on Saturday expressed his government’s strong support for the Iraqi assault on Basra. He even called the militias in Basra “outlaws,” the same term that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has used to describe them.
“The idea of the government in Basra was to fight outlaws,” Mr. Qumi said. “This was the right of the government and the responsibility of the government. And in my opinion the government was able to achieve a positive result in Basra.”
What I've also never understood is how he's managed to stay alive.
Just damn....I overlooked the obvious!
Iraqi Army Seizes Basra From Militia as Cleric Threatens New Uprising
Not only is the end game at hand, it looks likely Sadr's movement will be destroyed. And we can see evidence that things are coming to a head as Iraqi forces are surrounding Basra strongholds again today... Sadr's main rival is a cleric named Hakim (sp?) who had a rival militia which was integrated into the Iraqi security forces. His group notes that the only ones bearing arms against Iraq is al-Qaeda and the Mahdi.
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