Posted on 04/13/2008 12:26:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I'm getting a lot of hate e-mail these days. This onslaught is not entirely a bad thing. It reassures me that my bet against the crowd is a wise one. I'm bullish and have been steadily since the July 8, 2002 issue. In my Jan. 28 column I reiterated the upbeat outlook and reminded you that the fourth year of a presidency only rarely delivers losses to stockholders. Now, with stocks globally (as measured by the Morgan Stanley All-Country World Index) down 8.6% so far this year, people are telling me I'm an idiot. Someone posted to FORBES Web site, "Hi Ken. It's been an absolute pleasure watching you vie for the 2008 Henry Blodget Award. Keep up the good work!"
Gloat for now, but please note that 2008 isn't over. I still think the year will end in the plus column. And I'm never happier than when I'm alone.
My critics call me a perma-bull. They forget I called the last three full-fledged bear markets right here in FORBES--reasonably well and better than most--and mostly alone (June 15, 1987; Nov. 27, 1989; Feb. 19, 2001). I know I may be wrong now. But I see what's happened since Jan. 1 as just a major correction, very comparable to 1998, with a few things flip-flopped, as described in my Feb. 25 column.
On Mar. 13 Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) demoted market strategist Abby Cohen for having been bullish too long. That day marked the bottom of the back half of what I think is a double-bottom whose first bottom was in January. I see Goldman's move as bullish. That once famous market timer Joe Granville materialized out of nowhere saying that we are beginning a bad bear market. I'd bet against Joe any time.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Not a chance. We’re all gonna eat lead paint chips for dinner because we’ll all be so poor.
This is all so depressing. Were it not for guns and religion we would have nothing.
Don’t forget how great it is that we all look alike.
That’s only in small towns though.
You sound bitter to me. Might I point out that there is somebody in your neighborhood who is not like you?
Perhaps you should pay him a visit.
Don’t forget how bitter I am.
You are SUCH a typical white person - sheesh....
Really? I have bitterness too. Oh wait, maybe I shouldn't gloat.
You know, you’re right. The parishoners to the one side at Mt. Zion Separate Baptist Church think that the 1911 Colt what was John Browning’s greatest invention whilst the parishoners to the other side claims it was the repeating shotgun. I sure wish there were some Harvard Law School graduate from Chicago who really understood us simple, stupid rural white folks so’s he could save us from ourselves.
Not God Bless the Stock Market, but G-Damn the Stock Market.
Folks,
This thread is about the US stock market and where it’s headed this year, let’s not lose sight of the fact and go off tangent.
That makes me feel so bitter.
Oh please ... the goobermint will just keep the money presses churning out trillions, bailing out this business, and that empire, thereby ensuring a steady rise in the stock market, all of which shall be worthless once the famine hits.
Hmmmmm ... I wonder if you can you eat paper, and what would one wash it down with?
Ethanol laden beer
What if we had a party and neither bulls nor bears showed up?
That is, I think perhaps a third direction is in order. One that will indeed produce winners and losers, but at the same time. For every Bear Stearns, a JPM.
Call it a “restructuring”. What it amounts to is both a commercial and government return to a more orderly credit market. The basic idea is the old one: Only give credit to those who DO NOT need it.
Credit only given to those with 100% collateral, and non-speculative collateral at that. And if you can’t afford it without credit, you can’t afford it.
At the government level, this means no other choice but a real constitutional balanced budget amendment. No more deficit spending *at all*. Any excess goes to reducing the debt, not a last minute splurge at the candy store. It is not unlikely that the size of the federal government will have to be reduced by a third to a half.
Any bonds or treasuries issued will have to be backed with something tangible. Probably not gold or silver, as there is not enough of it to go around. But something that is not speculative.
For corporations or “the man on the street”, the days of easy credit will be over for a long time. For most people, this means the end of the credit card, and that they only have a debit card. You don’t get a new car until you can pay for it in cash. No money? No problem! No sale!
Home mortgages will be reality based, and uncreative. Home prices will drop until they are reality based as well. This is the way it used to be.
Few today remember that the Dow Jones average used to vacillate between 800-1000, for YEARS. It didn’t leave this range because it wasn’t permitted to leave this range. And during this time, much pressure and potential for growth built up.
Well that pressure and potential for growth have been pretty well used up. So now the market restructures to find its center of stability. But this is not the same thing as a recession. It is a solidification. No more bubbles or boom times for a while. And growth industries will have to be fully funded from the onset, until they can pay for themselves. And their first task will be to pay back their backers.
Yes, it is a very different economy indeed. One not really seen in some ways, since President Nixon.
Geeze ... I guess I will have to lock up the guns before dinner.
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒE
Me and the dogs just came in from plunking some squirrels for some stew tonight before going to church to get my fill of false hope......can someone please explain to me what the stock market is? Someone told me it’s a place where they sell cattle and hogs and stuff but I don’t think that’s right.../sarc
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