[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Here comes the Hurricane season!

Gray has overestimated for ther last two years, let’s hope for three in a row. Got to give it to him for speaking out against the ‘Global Warming is causing more hurricanes’ nonsense though.

[NormsRevenge]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/
The Tropical Meteorology Project

The Tropical Meteorology Project is headed by Colorado State University’s Dr. William Gray. Professor Gray has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 40 years. Most of this effort has gone to the investigation of meso-scale tropical weather phenomena. He has specialized in the global aspects of tropical cyclones for his entire professional career. Dr Gray received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, Dept. of Geophysical Sciences in 1964. He has been with Colorado State University’s Dept. of Atmospheric Science since 1961, and has been a professor since 1974.

Dr. Gray’s hurricane forecast has gained international attention, and won him the Neil Frank Award of the National Hurricane Conference in 1995. His Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts are published here. (Archived forecasts are available.)

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

[diverteach]

Ya ya ya! That’s what he said the last 2 years in which was proven way off.

Does anybody care what he thinks anymore?

Dr William Gray - “Chicken Little Award” nominee.

[Ingtar]

including the hurricane that swamped New Orleans, Katrina.

False statement. Greed, graft, and government stupidity swamped New Orleans.

[stylin19a]

The average hurricane season produces about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes -- a standard that was blown out of the water in the record-busting season of 2005, when 28 storms formed, including the hurricane that swamped New Orleans, Katrina.

some bias....no mention that the 2006 & 2007 season were way below standard.

[Rembrandt]

I pulled out a trusty old quarter and flipped it a number of times.

Here is my official hurricane forecast for the State of Florida: two hurricanes will hit the state, neither of them will be a Cat 4 or 5. There will also be a lot of Bud Light in the air.

Who is paying me for this forecast anyway???

[Shadowstrike]

Being as I've lived on the Gulf Coast my entire life, I'm of the mind that anyone who even talks about Hurricane Season, Hurricane Predictions should be shot if they do it before the actual beginning of Hurricane Season. Far too many people want us all freaked out the entire year. I'm sick of TV stations and Dr, Gray when they start this at Christmas time. For the love of God let us have a fairly regular holiday without hearing just how friggin' doomed we are. Rant over.

[Chode]

where da hurricanes at??? what a putz...

[Retired Chemist]

I blame Gray’s predictions for the non-renewal of my homeowners insurance.

[blam]

BAH!!

[Calvin Locke]

This is ridiculous. They know what the frickin' cycles are from historical records. I want to see what their prediction is put up against the total statistical average, as well as the expected occurrences for where in the cycle we are, including a standard deviation.

What do you want to bet that they're going to be classifying water spouts as cat 4 and 5 "hurricanes" to justify their awful predictions?

[Soliton]

His guess is almost as good as mine.

[pankot]

Another “expert” who will be proved full of shit.

[Sacajaweau]

That’s what they said last year...and that was a flop...I can get the cycle stats out of the Almanac and it’s better than their predictions. Maybe I’ll send them one.

[TheBattman]

Didn’t we hear this exact same forecast last year at this time? I think if they say it every year, sooner-or-later, they will get it right...

You know - the old “even a broken clock is right twice a day”...

[poobear]

Even when they named every sub-sub-tropical storm last year he was WAY off.

A good thing, but who the heck cares what he predicts? Guess he has justify his six figure job somehow.

[politicalwit]

Bill Gray is to hurricane predictions as is Dick Morris to political predictions.

[SuziQ]

It could be that we’ll have a busy season. It could also be that none of those hurricanes makes landfall, or if a couple do, they may do only slight damage. It’s truly a crapshoot.

[denydenydeny]

"We're expecting an above average season,"

It's Lake Wobegon weather forecasting, where all the hurricane seasons are above average.