Replies

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 240 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 298 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 252.22 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 03/31/2008 7:31:15 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon

2 posted on 03/31/2008 7:31:47 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")

3 posted on 03/31/2008 7:32:13 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")

To: Aeronaut; angkor; annyokie; beckysueb; BlessedByLiberty; bluefish; Bogeygolfer; Brandon; ...

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

4 posted on 03/31/2008 7:33:05 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")

So long as the voters in (*yeccchhh*) Seattle continue to disproportionately determine how the state’s electoral votes are allotted, every four years: Washington, I solemnly guarantee you, will never EVER go for Juan over The Obamessiah.

5 posted on 03/31/2008 7:34:17 AM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle (McCain "conservatives" = hardcore liberals who nonetheless appreciate the occasional tax cut.)

looks like it is trending McCains way
according to this thing if he held all the states indicated here and carried a few others he may actually win this thing

6 posted on 03/31/2008 7:54:48 AM PDT by DM1

PA, trending hopelessly blue.

9 posted on 03/31/2008 8:27:02 AM PDT by Ciexyz

For what it's worth; I've been keeping track based on polling, and project McCain winning 327 to 211. That's with Obama being the nominee. I didn't bother with Hillary, cuz I don't think she'll get the nod. I assigned the state to whoever was leading in aggregate polling; which there's not much data for at this point. Many states are toss ups still, so your numbers seem feasible. If I had to put a percentage on a McCain Obama match up...I put McCain at about a 55% chance to win.

10 posted on 03/31/2008 8:40:10 AM PDT by skully (A moonbat once told me he was ashamed to be an American. I said I was ashamed he was an American too)

This chart shows why the Dems would like to get rid of the Electoral College and rely on the popular vote.

50 Largest Cities		2005 Est Pop	Dem Cities	GOP Cities
New York	N.Y.	8,143,197	8,143,197
Los Angeles	Calif.	3,844,829	3,844,829
Chicago	Ill.	2,842,518	2,842,518
Houston	Tex.	2,016,582		2,016,582
Philadelphia	Pa.	1,463,281	1,463,281
Phoenix	Ariz.	1,461,575		1,461,575
San Antonio	Tex.	1,256,509		1,256,509
San Diego	Calif.	1,255,540	1,255,540
Dallas	Tex.	1,213,825		1,213,825
San Jose	Calif.	912,332	912,332
Detroit	Mich.	886,671	886,671
Indianapolis	Ind.	784,118		784,118
Jacksonville	Fla.	782,623		782,623
San Francisco	Calif.	739,426	739,426
Columbus	Ohio	730,657	730,657
Austin	Tex.	690,252		690,252
Memphis	Tenn.	672,277		672,277
Baltimore	Md.	635,815	635,815
Fort Worth	Tex.	624,067		624,067
Charlotte	N.C.	610,949		610,949
El Paso	Tex.	598,590		598,590
Milwaukee	Wis.	578,887	578,887
Seattle	Wash.	573,911	573,911
Boston	Mass.	559,034	559,034
Denver	Colo.	557,917	557,917
Louisville-Jefferson County	Ky.1	556,429		556,429
WashingtonDC
Nashville-Davidson	Tenn.2	549,110		549,110
Las Vegas	Nev.	545,147	545,147
Portland	Ore.	533,427	533,427
Oklahoma City	Okla.	531,324		531,324
Tucson	Ariz.	515,526		515,526
Albuquerque	N.M.	494,236	494,236
Long Beach	Calif.	474,014	474,014
Atlanta	Ga.	470,688		470,688
Fresno	Calif.	461,116	461,116
Sacramento	Calif.	456,441	456,441
New Orleans	La.	454,863		454,863
Cleveland	Ohio	452,208	452,208
Kansas City	Mo.	444,965		444,965
Mesa	Ariz.	442,780		442,780
Virginia Beach	Va.	438,415		438,415
Omaha	Nebr.	414,521		414,521
Oakland	Calif.	395,274	395,274
Miami	Fla.	386,417		386,417
Tulsa	Okla.	382,457		382,457
Honolulu	HI	377,379	377,379
Minneapolis	Minn.	372,811	372,811
Colorado Springs	Colo.	369,815	369,815
Arlington	Tex.	362,805		362,805

Total population		45,317,550	28,655,883	16,661,667

12 posted on 03/31/2008 8:57:27 AM PDT by TomGuy

14 posted on 03/31/2008 9:08:20 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")

McCain will take Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Possibly Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. Maybe New Mexico.

Once you have Obama's name in there instead of "generic Democrat", you'll see this flip to McCain 285, Obama 253.

19 posted on 03/31/2008 9:29:09 AM PDT by GunRunner

Here’s a mind-bug for all of you...

What would the map look like with a McCain/Clinton ticket?? No,I didn’t mistype that....

Think about the net result if Obama is the DemocRat nominee...Hillary might as well be McCain’s Veep at that point because I think many if not most of her followers would hold their noses and vote for McCain before they would ever vote for Obama...especially if this goes all the way to the Convention in August.

22 posted on 03/31/2008 10:01:28 AM PDT by Bean Counter (Stout Hearts...)

This week's "battleground" states (30.0% - 69.9%):

27 Florida 68.5%

13 Virginia 55.5%

11 Missouri 52.0%

5 Nevada 48.5%

9 Colorado 47.5%

4 New Hampshire 40.5%

20 Ohio 37.3%

5 New Mexico 36.5%

10 Wisconsin 35.0%

17 Michigan 34.5%

7 Iowa 34.0%

21 Pennsylvania 33.8%

24 posted on 03/31/2008 1:02:13 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")

I see that Nevada flipped to the Dems. Going in the wrong direction. Can McCain win Pennsylvania?

27 posted on 03/31/2008 3:40:09 PM PDT by RichardW

These are from the Iowa Electronic Markets:

For the election:

For the Democrat nomination:

31 posted on 03/31/2008 5:48:51 PM PDT by cynwoody

Bssed on the probabilities in your table above, the expected value of GOP electoral votes is 250. The probability of getting at least 270 Electoral Votes is 29.29%.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 252.22 Electoral Votes.

One note on your calculation method... You are trying to calculate the probability-weighted average of Electoral Votes for McCain. Your formula is close, but not exact. What you should do is simply multiply McCain's probability (as a decimal between 0 and 1) of winning a state by that state's electoral college votes, and then sum the results for all states. This will give you the expected value.

The expected value is a point that represents the average of repeated sample elections using the probabilities to determine state wins and losses. The outcomes are plotted on a curve to determine the cumulative probability distribution of repeated elections. Then, you can use the curve to determine the probability of the 270 value or greater occuring.

I've been running 20,000 simulated elections to determine the probability of winning.

-PJ

32 posted on 03/31/2008 8:24:57 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (Repeal the 17th amendment -- it's the "Fairness Doctrine" for Congress!)

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